UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

Euro suffered a bit this morning as Ireland does a 30bn bailout for its banks I think was the detail. http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750

Its reversed now with dollar weakening again, in a similar fashion to last friday. Corresponding the FTSE also regained its 60 points it lost at 8am

Gold was at a top of a channel, fallen back and now at the bottom of its recent range. If it were to lose this it could see 1250 again but it all relates to currencies from what I can see.

More on currency wars / domino effect:
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/brazil-warns-of-world-currency-war-report-afp-5cb7bb31ea05.html?x=0&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter


I got a bit of ABG after its fall even though its generally unpopular and gold declining a bit. Its not an expensive company comparatively ?


Sp500 futures found support around 1137 which is a big level I think similar to 1090. 1150 is a justified top for a number of reasons but if dollar stays weak it'll probably not hold (hence I feel light on gold).
Last week spy went down in value for most foreigners though nominally it continues up


I got Aberdeen asia fund as I like how it covers india to japan, I hope the manager switches balance according to value/growth better then I can
Sold artemis assets, a bit late but I dont think he holds gold anymore in there so not as keen as I was

worldtraveller

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

More on currency wars / domino effect:
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/brazil-warns-of-world-currency-war-report-afp-5cb7bb31ea05.html?x=0&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Among the basic lessons of the Great Depression in the 1930s were that protectionism and so-called competitive devaluations make matters worse all round. At the height of the recent crisis, governments were at pains to express rejection of protectionism.

Yeah, right! :whistle:

StevieJ

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Sold artemis assets, a bit late but I dont think he holds gold anymore in there so not as keen as I was

Why 'a bit late'?

Old_Slaphead

Thought he upped his gold to 4.6% in Aug (not seen any later info yet)

sabretoothtigger

worldtraveller wrote: »

At the height of the recent crisis, governments were at pains to express rejection of protectionism.[/I]

Yeah, right! :whistle:

Its the opposite of comparative advantage (which has made us all richer) and basically destructive. Maybe China is stealing jobs, maybe usa is overloading companies with laws and legal liability for everything.
There should be a way to balance who makes what cheapest without fake moves like printing money or forcing their views basically
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage

StevieJ wrote: »

Why 'a bit late'?

I didnt sell at the highest price. Nice market surge today, I should waited a bit longer, theres never an exact right time really.
now thinking of buying a bit of tech since thats fairly cheap, did you buy in on Artemis yet?

Old_Slaphead wrote: »

Thought he upped his gold to 4.6% in Aug (not seen any later info yet)

Maybe Im confused but saw some sites show he doesnt have any. Thats not my only reason, it doesnt really perform or stay up on down days enough for me to value it especially
To be fair I think he is shorting Japanese bonds and maybe complicated stuff that hasnt had a chance to be of benefit yet


Big volatile reversal day today. 3pm showed bad USA data (bring on QE) which made dollar weak, Euro broke above resistance.
Everything else goes up including gold of course, to a new all time high

Gold Went from bottom of the channel like I said, now above and beyond the top.
ABG fell upto 3pm then adjusted up sharply. It needs to break above 600 properly or I may sell and buy again later

Its like POG, unpopular and underperforming. Questor says pog will come through, even if it does recover production figures, etc it will still be russian :laugh: I dont mind investing in the unpopular but I think I prefer to buy at cheapest prices if I can figure it out



SPY volume yesterday was some of the lowest of the year. Today normal/low 1152 is major resistance. We have jobs on thursday I'd be willing to guess we stay below until then, in a range?

FTSE 5650 to 5555, 5510



QE2 - Fed out of control http://t.co/OdqzVNB [If QE2 destructive, its positive for share prices and negative for value of trade done in dollars]
spy - http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/4504/img12857023583180238364.gif

StevieJ

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I didnt sell at the highest price. Nice market surge today, I should waited a bit longer, theres never an exact right time really.
now thinking of buying a bit of tech since thats fairly cheap, did you buy in on Artemis yet?

Yes, I have been in few months, not exciting performance since but rated 5th out 125 over the last 12 months, not bad for a defensive fund in a rising market. This is now a core holding for me, I like the fact that he can switch to very defensive if required. He must still be in gold because this was his view at the end of August.

Commodities
Our positions have not changed much. Our gold weighting has risen slightly and we have continued to take profits in our
soft commodities. My view on gold, and therefore on platinum, is unchanged. They will both benefit from negative real
interest rates, which I expect will be with us for the immediate future. Also if there is any further quantitative easing,
which is what I expect, then gold would probably rise further

.

blinko

i reckon food prices will rise too !!! unless india gets a rainy season and china

anyway sideways movement on the markets today, sov debts a worry and consumer confiedence down but markets didnt really act on it and savings rates are lower at the moment

worldtraveller

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Its the opposite of comparative advantage (which has made us all richer) and basically destructive. Maybe China is stealing jobs, maybe usa is overloading companies with laws and legal liability for everything.
There should be a way to balance who makes what cheapest without fake moves like printing money or forcing their views basically
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage

Looks like the argument is racking up....China criticizes US currency bill as protectionism

buckers_wv

I'd be expecting the banks to be a safe play long term. Despite the double-dip warnings, they will not stay at the prices that are now forever. Part of my long-term investing plan is to move a lot of my income into bank shares, and leave it there for a decade.

StevieJ

worldtraveller wrote: »

Looks like the argument is racking up....China criticizes US currency bill as protectionism

Need to watch very closely.