UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

CashStrappedTeen89

Ye i agree, i think ill stick 1k in XEL on wed and do go with the possibility of dripping into DES. Thanks.

blinko

i woudl avoid DES for teh moemtn, they are easily fully priced same with RKH, wait for some bad news or go in 3 - 4 weeks before a drilling etc

GKP up this morning

and myInvestec Africa & Middle East P Acc Net fund still hasnt been valued since 8th Sept, which is rather annoying as i know i should hold for teh long term but i like to follow my investments closely !!

this week i expect it to head upwards steadily but slowly, we had a little bear last week mainly because of low consumer confidence and eurozone debt

although again i still think these are distractions rather than impending disasters FTSE W/E 5700

happy trading all this week

turbobob

blinko wrote: »

and myInvestec Africa & Middle East P Acc Net fund still hasnt been valued since 8th Sept, which is rather annoying as i know i should hold for teh long term but i like to follow my investments closely !!

It's because of a religious holiday, it should be priced today. http://www.investecassetmanagement.com/upload/pdf/Inv_AME_Trading_Calendar10.pdf

turbobob

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Looking at JII for guidance ( I should have just done a regular buy, I dont own any) its broken out. Very nice, similar to sept 2007, same trend then surge
In theory it should be cheaper again at some point but if the rupee only strengths vs the dollar then I suspect it will more regularly outperform then not

I have some of these (held them since last November) - I was beginning to think they were never going to do anything much and then out of the blue it puts in three weeks of solid gains. Still has a discount to NAV (3.9% ish), although much less than it was trading at prior to this run.

blinko

turbobob wrote: »

It's because of a religious holiday, it should be priced today. http://www.investecassetmanagement.com/upload/pdf/Inv_AME_Trading_Calendar10.pdf

thanks buddy

sabretoothtigger

kittie wrote: »

I sold all our BP. a few weeks ago, thankfully and have re-invested the proceeds in AV. AZN and VOD.

Kittie does it again. A little done well goes a long way I guess


I did think about VOD at 130 or so, maybes dont count Its hard to be positive on certain stocks when the market is negative

http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/1619/img12849883992771798913.gif



http://seekingalpha.com/article/196269-is-david-einhorn-s-vodafone-thesis-panning-out


I heard a positive for JII and india generally. Inflation is not considered such a risk for their central bank to raise rates but also one guy thinks Rupee will appreciate /outperform which would mean alot (in my opinion)

Places like India are increasing in car ownership and so on.

Im still looking for this market to put in a top for now. Right this moment, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY:IND the dollar index is up a fair bit which matches my break of trend theory.
Its very hard to predict and generally the guys who see a weak or failing dollar even are right most likely. Bonds & currencys outweigh stocks massively and bonds are down in Sept


GKP I saw up 16% nice, RRL up 10% but its so tiny it hardly counts when it was down before
HDY continues down, I appear to be wrong not to sell at 244 which I had as resistance. I looked at volume at prices and confirmed my hold, not much I can do to tell what'll happen

FTSE up on cue. 5500 is the magic number to keep http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/7642/img12849893140313897993.gif

ses6jwg

GKP and RKH another strong performance.

blinko

isnt india banking on a rainy season though to put pressure on increasing food prices, they have raised rates to try and combat booming food prices/inflation, i still think the country has alot of options but they are playing there cards and holding out

my FSTE 5700 close on Friday seems to be holding, i think weds and thurs will be sideways and a mini rally on Friday

GCM and CKP on the move, SEY took a big hit
MATD on the move too and PELE backtracked no idea why

and lastly a favourite company of mine IPO
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11379349

jojo90_2

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

That is a good chart because it shows moneyflow and I think gilt money influences stock prices. Thats a massive bull market but it doesnt mean its correct, in fact it resembles a bubble with artificial buying obviously with QE but also speculators.
Like mortgages they greatly increased the market size and inversely its efficiency most likely. Markets hate inefficiency

I heard IBM recently sold some debt with 1% yield. I'd rather have that but really shares are better because they have a share of profit growth and/or inflation. Globally that will occur, in the 30's they tried to block off outside trade and now they are doing something else similarly wrong.

When bonds go down in price, it will be like a dam breaking I think. It'll cause strange effects but shares should float higher, thats my estimate anyway




Anyway sorry for the babble, there is pressure out there. Its not over imo



Im not sure why, their shares have stayed fairly high for some reason. Our currency with them has varied alot though


POG dipped lower recently but recovered. Ive not been able to take advantage but their production so far this year was poor but for good reasons of restructing production.
They make a fair point that with an increasing price not selling it now is a future positive. So if you buy that idea then buy this basically.

I have not bought any more yet though, got some VED. VED is buying up oil and partly increasing debt but this is justified by recent uncapping of price controls and oil is a valuable import to india who dont import so much. Its likely another canny decision by the head guy

BHP is also an oil company. Oil price was drastically lower recently but recovered some. This company is also justified in its recent moves which the market dislikes. Their gearing is 3% without the POT deal


Heres the thing Kitty mentioned. A hidden negative is future costs




This is why Hardy should go higher I think, 240 or 270 even. Speculative, if they actually find oil then 540 maybe
http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/4673/img12829124416674245826.gif

pog http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/677c45d8-b143-11df-b899-00144feabdc0.html



Edit:
Another comparison, Copper to SP500 price again stocks appear out of line though its hardly conclusive
http://chart.ly/3s2du8s

In laymans terms does this perhaps mean that BT shares, currently trading round 140p, are at some serious risk of freefalling as more people retire? What about 3 years time?

StevieJ

What do those pension liabilities mean? I know for example that Shell in the UK have more than 100% fully funded pension scheme


Edit: a bit of investigation found this, it appears that the Shell fund has gone from top surplus to top deficit :eek: although I guess that was a function of size and with the recovery in bond and equity markets it could be top surplus again, although it looks like many schemes have been moving funds over to gilts and other 'AAA' bonds.

Anyway this was back in June 2009

http://www.pensionstrategies.co.uk/MungoBlobs/pdfs/October%202009%20The%20FTSE%20350%20and%20their%20pension%20disclosures.pdf