UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

blinko

also to add cost cutting is permanent revenues aren't

if anything the massive soveriegn debt is a good thing as its forcing governments to take REAL action to reduce there deficit, they know what they have to do and the consequences so again they are taking real steps to address it rather than handing it over to the next party at elections at although i do agree it is high i think governments are serious about tackling it rather than fobbing it off

i still think short term the fundamentals are good medium term i am expecting a lull as governments withdraw stimulus packages and people wait and see and become nervous as they aren't sure what they will hold for the economy longer term, i still think asia will be enough to drive the world economy forward

eg middle east is expecting to spend 123bn dollars on defence, thats alot jobs !

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ffd73210-c4ef-11df-9134-00144feab49a.html

sabretoothtigger

The real bull market is in risk and volatility

governments are serious about tackling it rather than fobbing it off

Every time you hear an official statement on whatever, check whether that government is running a defect or not. If they are then they are actively increasing debt and are in trouble should they be refused or rates start rising on them.

Bond markets affect stock prices so its relevant I think. Alot of no risk money people from pension funds and so on are going to be forced into companies at some point I think


I sold VED today as its risen about 20% in a month. I overinvested in August to a point where I was not able to buy anything else like pog for example, so unwinding that now is sensible though I have not sold ved completely.


Bianca trends seems to think it could be a reasonable time to sell them.

The FTSE (and SP500) is still doing its topping moves. In the spring when we did this, it faltered, fell and then made a new high before the eventual real drop

In laymans terms does this perhaps mean that BT shares, currently trading round 140p, are at some serious risk of freefalling as more people retire? What about 3 years time?

BT already fell alot I think. I actually own some but I dont count them or even look as its too depressing, they were a gift.

I always look for expanding prospects or some sort competitive advantage that will lever the shares up regardless of complicated matters like pensions - Im not an accountant, I really dont know is the bottom line

and myInvestec Africa & Middle East P Acc Net fund still hasnt been valued since 8th Sept, which is rather annoying as i know i should hold for teh long term but i like to follow my investments closely !!

I had a look at that, I like Investec in general. Largely invested in Nigeria. MENA is the asset class right
Think I will have to assume this one is a rough diamond and I hope it polishes up well for you.
Nice contrarian play? At the moment that seems good

My Somalia share RRL was up 9% today which puts me into profit slightly. Its blown out the top of its uptrend again, a nice bounce from support. I dont expect it to suddenly keep going up though, not without news.
The average gain over the year has been fine, Im fairly hopeful it can continue


Im expecting usa to open or move up positively tomorrow so its possible for a nicer ftse price in the afternoon. My reasoning is based on positive volume towards 9pm.
Asia could wreck that though as Japan was closed yesterday

This is my fund location distribution



Looking at JII chart I think 400 is my target for considering a buy there, this would match lows going back to Feb and july 09

SKR uptrend targets 26 to 31
EMED also maybe an uptrend but much more uncertain, res at 9.6
GKP overheating after +60% in 30 days on limited news? support levels 136 then 111 and 90p

blinko

i do think that governments are serious about tackling debt, i dont think they will let party politics get in the way and as soon as they have a credible plan in place or just a smidgens of a sign of reduction in the deficit everything booms

but anyway i plan to make money frmo the markets regardless of debts and deficits

well i wanted exposure to africa and i expect nigeria and south africa to be the bgigest boomers and egypt too, especially if mubrak presidents son gets in (he is a moderate forward thinker) but i think i have enough exposure there infact to much about 45%

Greater Europe51.77
United Kingdom11.35
Western Europe - Euro1.12
Western Europe - Non Euro0.23
Emerging Europe0.92
Middle East / Africa38.14
Americas6.92
United States0.91
Canada5.18
Central & Latin America0.84
Greater Asia 41.31
Japan0.00
Australasia5.06
Emerging 4 Tigers8.02
Emerging Asia - Ex 4 Tigers28.23

the fund isnt doing very well to be honest but then again it is a punt, althogh i think i could probbably make money moey trading on shares than holding those funds and at least the shares are less reliant on the US economy etc they go boom on RNS im currenlty still in GCm at 218 so hoping for an official RNS today and my friends has tipped SXX at 6p but i dont fancy it but it is doing well

you heavy on japan know something...

Old_Slaphead

worldtraveller wrote: »

How long have you got? In a nutshell, basically because, IMHO, any recent growth in most of the worlds economies is largely false, based on stimulus plans and other Government interventions. The massive sovereign debt issues in the EU have not gone away. The U.S. economy is still a basket case. Many companies in the FTSE, and other worldwide markets showing any improvements in their profit figures is largely down to aggresive cost cutting, not improved revenues. That can't continue of course beyond the short term. These are just a few reasons why I see the bull run as irrational and the market being way ahead of the level it should be at realistically.

If you know/think this - would not "the market" also have factored it into it's calculations?

lvader

You sell shares ready for the market to go down and what happens? It keeps going up! :mad: At least my pension is doing well.:D

blinko

lvader wrote: »

You sell shares ready for the market to go down and what happens? It keeps going up! :mad: At least my pension is doing well.:D

i think the main thing here is to set targets and stick to them, younever know when markets will turn, i got lick by investing aug 23rd and caught everything but i doubt it will happn again

im going to re position in dec/april

i may leave unit trusts and dabbkle in shares lets see

missed my 5700 last weekl but got my weds and thurs with rally on friday righht

blinko

Monday 27 September

Results


(Final) Netcall, SpiriTel, System C Healthcare, Wolseley
(Interim) Alliance Trust, DDD Group, Healthcare Locums, Mount Engineering


AGMs


Aortech International, Ashley House, GEONG International, Max Petroleum, SDI Group


EGMs


DataCash Group


Dividend payment date


(Final) Tangent Communications
(Interim) African Barrick Gold, Fidessa, Maven Income and Growth, Stanley Gibbons


Tuesday 28 September


Results


(Finals) AI Claims Solutions, Albermarle & Bond, Close Brothers Group, Ludgate Environmental Fund, Ricardo Group
(Interims) AG Barr, Atlantic Global, Augean, Game Group, GVC Holdings, Japan Leisure Hotels, JBB Sports, Neovia Financial


Trading updates


Daily Mail and General Trust, Future, Man Group, Thomas Cook Group


AGMs


CBay Systems Holdings, ECO Animal Health Group, Jacques Vert, Minco, Private and Commercial, Sirius Exploration, Surface Transforms


EGMs


Mercator Gold, Quorum Oil and Gas Technology Fund


Dividend payment date


(Final) British Smaller Companies, Micro Focus International
(Interim) Hiscox


Wednesday 29 September

Results


(Finals) Indigo Vision, Smiths Group
(Interim) African Minerals Limites, Archial Group, Cluff Gold, Lees Foods, Michelmersh Brick Holdings, Moss Bros, Motivcom, North Bridge Industrial Services, Panmure Gordon & Co., smartfocus, Tyratech


Trading updates


Babcock International Group, Liontrust Asset Management, Topps Tiles


AGMs


600 Group, Amur Minerals, Angle, Arcontech Group, Bglobal, Cobra Holdings, Dhir India Investments, GTL Resources, Imaginatik, Marechale Capital, Misys, SocialGO, Strathdon Investments


Dividend payment date


(Final) Hargreaves Lansdown
(Interim) British American Tobacco, GKN, Glanbia, Greencore Group


Thursday 30 September

Results


(Finals) Eleco, Finsbury Food Group
(Interims) Gem Biofuels, HarbourVest Global Private Equity, Harvey Nash Group, Hasgrove, M&C Saatchi, Transense Technologies, XCounter


Trading updates


Compass Group, Dairy Crest Group


AGMs


Begbies Traynore Group, ContentFilm, Fiske, Gasol, Iimia Investment Trust, Lombard Risk Management, MediaZest, Network Technology, Oil & Gas Development, OPG Power Ventures, Redstone, Rockhopper Exploration, Sefton Resources, Triple Plate Junction, United Carpets


Dividend payment date


(Final) BHP Billiton, Cash Converters, Downing Absolute Income
(Interim) Albion Development, British Smaller Technology Companies, Eclectic Investment Company, Hardy Underwriting Bermuda, Japan Residential Investment Company, Low & Bonar, Reckitt Benckiser Group, Rights & Issues Inv Trust, SR Europe Inv Trust, Temple Bar Inv Trust, Timeweave


Friday 1 October

Results


(Final) Helphire Group


AGMs


Abbey


EGMs


Bank Audi, Invesco English & International Trust


Dividend payment date


(Final) Aquarius Platinum, Hartest Holdings, NCC Group, New Century, Park Group, VP
(Interim) Chaucer Holdings, Clarkson, Devro, FBD Holdings, Future, Greggs, Hammerson, InterContinental Hotels Group, Legal & General Group, Maintel Holdings, Meggitt, Melrose, North Midland Construction, Ocean Wilsons, Omega Insurance Holdings, Portmeirion, REA Holdings, Robinson, TUI Travel
(Quarterly) Schlumberger

JamesU

Old_Slaphead wrote: »

If you know/think this - would not "the market" also have factored it into it's calculations?

For sure, this factoring is what markets are supposed to do. From memory, I think this is the basis of the "Efficient Markets Hypothesis" where the price of investments quickly adjusts to all the available information. But a key feature is that prices are determined by investors competing in a rational manner for the market to be efficient, and then the prices should be a good measure of their intrinsic value. But as other OPs have discussed above, based on the available information, I also do feel some markets are irrational at present. That said, given I am still prepared to punt when I perceive to see a bargain, perhaps I am one of these irrational investors that are making the markets inefficient.

JamesU

sabretoothtigger

James what you or I think or do matters little. Most do not invest in single stocks , most people have a pension and thats how they influence the market.
Even more so then that, most do not save or invest money. The biggest economy influence by Joe Bloggs is how he spends his money

Its all about the big money not us rarities whether we good or bad. The real market dynamic is pension funds and spending habits


People (pension funds) are too scared of investment and then confident in government bonds.
Herd dynamics overrides efficient markets, what if the next bank run is on a major store of wealth like gilts

Its common now for shares to yield more then bonds, unless short term, this is the cart leading the horse.
It can only make sense if prices of everything fell, they arent.


Another fan and man in despair of this "Efficient Markets Hypothesis" is Greenspan. Its at the heart of the argument on how can asset bubbles get blown up and act more like dominoes then stable and independent factors in a free market


The glaring factor to me is central banks. The production or set worth of countries currencies is not an open competitive free market.

Why are rates at 0.1% in Japan, usa and here not much higher. For a year would be exceptional but to continue at zero without an end it shows major failure to track real life dynamic factors,
ie. we are in some kind of bubble right now

The bottom line is no one has a clue what has, is or will happen from what I can tell, certainly not greenspan or his replacement

This is why we are all better off investing in stocks and/or commodities. This is a free market and more accurate and it adjusts up & down all the time, you're less likely to lose badly from what I can tell


The Japanese this week sold yen they cannot afford, they are the most indebted government.
The chinese wont let foreigners buy their currency
The americans print money to raise prices of their assets and borrow money from the Japanese and Chinese.

See how thats another game of dominoes set up to fall down again. They are playing games, leaning on the next person and one way or another they are cheating a free market

blinko

JamesU wrote: »

For sure, this factoring is what markets are supposed to do. From memory, I think this is the basis of the "Efficient Markets Hypothesis" where the price of investments quickly adjusts to all the available information. But a key feature is that prices are determined by investors competing in a rational manner for the market to be efficient, and then the prices should be a good measure of their intrinsic value. But as other OPs have discussed above, based on the available information, I also do feel some markets are irrational at present. That said, given I am still prepared to punt when I perceive to see a bargain, perhaps I am one of these irrational investors that are making the markets inefficient.

JamesU

gold/silver and brics look well priced im waiting till 10th oct to see the India IPO to judge wether to stay there

but we could go round in cirlces, i have FTSE next we closing at 5700 short term bull