UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

Shatners_Bassoon

SXX beginning to move now after retrace early in the week from high 9's down to late 5's. Good 30% increase today and more rises expected tomorrow after a good day today with high volume.

GKP on a roll too and lots of news due from them which should push this higher. T/O offer could come anyday really but would be better for stability and formation of government before that!

DES have moved from 100p to 120p this week ahead of Rachel Spud due early next month and it's all riding on this Drill, Rachel is so important for the NENFB and deriskinng further after the RKH SL find which is currently being sidetracked, news flow due anyday from Sam Moody and Co.

MOS have had a good week ahead of their appitalism launch and good intermin results.

Good luck all!

sabretoothtigger

Retrace is healthy in theory, I think volume should be lower as it goes down and thats a good indicator of more to come.


GKP did a retrace to near 100 before coming back up. That was pretty profitable for anyone less wussy then myself, like 40% gain in short amount of time.

My general aim is for about 20% before considering rebalancing just to keep things fluid. This rally is unstoppable though, today is options expiry but not sure that is the whole story

Low volume has been apparent and higher volume on selling which makes this a wobbly surge. Today we are at a trendline, also 1130 is a normal point of resistance (ie. just alot of sellers around these numbers)


Market on stilts:

(summary: less buyers while price rises)


Tech is still cheaper then most, its underperformed and undeservedly imo but intel gave a profits warning but thats within the context of an excellent company so whatever. I dont know if this is the top but switching to cheaper stuff seems good, oracle and rimm surprised with good results a few hours ago


I sold off hsbc global equity indian fund so now I just have separate indian companies. ERE VED HDY


Looking at JII for guidance ( I should have just done a regular buy, I dont own any) its broken out. Very nice, similar to sept 2007, same trend then surge
In theory it should be cheaper again at some point but if the rupee only strengths vs the dollar then I suspect it will more regularly outperform then not



CEY recovered better then before from a revenue warning. Harder rock needs reequipment, was probably a buying opportunity but I thought it might get cheaper.
POG is at a previous trend so a bit of a top there, I only own general miners besides so not really a seller. Its been bouncing in a box range this year

About to switch into investec emerging debt unless I can think of a reason not to. Dont normally hold bonds but they are arent normal overvalued stuff so seems ok



I noticed that swedish miner stock? did well, well done whoever was holding them. What gave you a clue to their future success especially, I lacked any certainty myself


http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/bond-investors-soon-face-once-in-a-lifetime-opportunity/a430495/2


RRL duffed up, deflated a bit. Ok still above 4.38 http://www.iii.co.uk/tv/episode/range-resources-rrl

EMED sideways crappy action



HSBC is still in a downtrend, if that breaks out above 690 properly I'll admit I was way too bearish. Next week the Fed announces QE, or not

ashraf_alaidi wrote:

If FOMC does NOT announce QE next week, the next date is Nov, FOMC; too close to MidTerm ElectionDay

http://www.kirkreport.com/2010/09/16/the-investor-sentiment-cycle/

StevieJ wrote: »

Well, St Leger day out of the way, the old adage was not very predictive this year unless you had sold at the very beginning of May.
6000 year end for me.

This was my only clue and I didnt follow through

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

USA Tax returns by April 15th also, Im not quite sure if that means some will stop buying stocks like over here with ISA maybe.

Around this time last year I started thinking well it should pull back a bit now, it didnt happen till mid May though


Regarding XUKS and shorting the ftse, I think in effect that is like going long on the currency so that might be a reasonable guide to how likely and how much falls might occur

Apoligies for the wall of text I dont tend to look at any one thing in isolation

AndyGuil

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I noticed that swedish miner stock? did well, well done whoever was holding them. What gave you a clue to their future success especially, I lacked any certainty myself

I assume you mean Beowulf mining? The RNS was preliminary results for one of the mines they are investigating. October will bring the JORC results. Based on the preliminary results the JORC results will be exceptional. These guys are a long term hold.

Shatners_Bassoon

What a week for me and every other FI investor! Commercially viable SeaLion just announced and RKH finish 25% up and so do DES.

Happy Bollinger drinking everyone!!

ses6jwg

Aviva, BP, Greggs, Gulf Keystone and Rockhopper all doing me proud.

Making me quite rich in fact on paper at least.

AMINEX and Workspace are the laggards in the pack.

Shatners_Bassoon

GKP had a dull day with a small drop though, wondered if was some transfers into RKH.

AEX is just like watching paint dry so hope they have news soon on OM-10!

sabretoothtigger

GKP dropped 6%, quite alot I reckon. Its not big enough or RKH to split money like that?

Crude oil has been going down just recently, kicking myself because I saw the top 78 ahead of time and similarly its bottomed just this evening at 72.85 though nothings ever certain. Its in a channel down, similar to august start (looks like a train track)

Heres my view of SP500



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Looking at GKP chart thats a normal pullback. Its above 5 DMA (daily moving average) which is near 135 the low of today which also matches the trend all the way back to the Feb lows (and very roughly 2009 august original rise). So on course, nice performance.

The very adventurous would have worked all that out in advance and be the people who bought at 135 I guess
I'd not buy before 110p myself, this matches the old trend low its broken from (for now)
Would be nice to buy at 72p of course, think that was why I didnt buy it back

The volume on this drop was above average which is not good


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CashStrappedTeen89

If you had the choice wold you invest in XEL or DES?
Im a beginner at this only had my account since Jan, im slowing gathering info on places and currently just hold DPL for long term or at least until end of next year.
I will have about 2.5k available wed to chuck in to my next company, now I've done my research on XEL and it has a 70% COS and should start spudding anywhere from next week until the end of october all depending on a sidetrack, its actually jumped from the 79.7p price i wanted to invest in to about 93p iirc yesterday which is quit gutting but funds arent available yet.
DES i have done no research and i dont think 3 days is enough time for me to do some REAL browsing on the company.

Any help guys?.

ses6jwg

Have a look at Argos Resources.

Very early days yet, but there are hushed rumours at Desire has the "bad patch" of the FI drilling campaign.

Argos and Rockhopper have the good spots.

sabretoothtigger

CashStrappedTeen89 wrote: »

DES i have done no research and i dont think 3 days is enough time for me to do some REAL browsing on the company.

Any help guys?.

If you dont know then dont invest lump sums expecting to catch the bottom price.
Quite often I see these small companys make new lows especially if they already surged for some reason

The low price comes for good reasons, its usually when everyone assumes they are not worth having.
Split 2.5k over 12 or 6 months and decide monthly, then you can learn as you go.
It gets boring just doing research and some of it will only be obvious with time or you just dont have the experience





CDS Sept 2nd http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/7325/cdst.png

Today


http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750

Most pigs level in this market rally but portugal and ireland are up



Technology sector overall has gained 20% over SP500 so my saying its underperformed is only correct recently. Gold is about 50% better over the last 2 years. Oil is 10% under

http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/5751/bigchart.gif