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UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond
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Beowulf Mining (BEM) are doing well again. The latest news has given a clue to the JORC results due late October/early November for their Kallak North mine and they have Kallak south (iron), Ballek (copper and gold) and Grundtrask (gold) to survey, whilst Ruoutevare has already been surveyed.0
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I hope you have all been enjoying that fantastic bull run of late. I sold, too early as usual but quickly got back in whenever I saw an opportunity. It is very hard to not be wed to any stock but I did it. I spent some time repositioning the sipp, deciding yet again that the pathetic interest rate on cash in the sipp would devalue what we have spent time building up so I added to a pib or two and early last week bought a big tranche of index linked gilts called TR40. They are the nearest thing I could find to the ns and i index linked certs. So now the sipp is 64% fixed rates, 21% cash and 15% stocks. I have been trading AAL for a week or so and that made about 5k, naturally I sold just now as I like to wrap up profits. I`ll probably put a limit buy in on that one for the amount received from selling. Otherwise I have been busy planting onions and garlic and buying the fixed interest vehicles prevents me from over trading. Re the bull run, I can`t help but wonder where it is coming from apart from a need for commoditites0
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Re the bull run, I can`t help but wonder where it is coming from apart from a need for commoditites
Who knows? It does seem to be driven primarily by commodity shares. Poor yields on bonds, Japanese currency intervention, prospect of further QE?
In terms of sectors commodity shares have quickly reversed from laggards to top performers. Banks on the other hand remain subdued, housebuilders are looking iffy too.
It remains to be seen if Aprils highs will be taken out and I guess this will prove to be an area of resistance on the indices.0 -
yes I agree with you turbobob plus a local big wheat farmer got £160 a tonne for his grain last month and this compares with £110 a tonne a couple of months before so food will spiral soon as will oil products as oil is now up again. I still feel as though I want to hunker down as I think we are in a bit of a stockmarket bubble0
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its driven by equities being cheap
commodities being in demand
money moving out of bonds
in my mind there is still a fair amount of go on the current bull sept was just the start
i do have worries eg bond bubble and sov debt but they are on the horizon not yet in front of me so i shall continue to ride
all the best0 -
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I spent some time repositioning the sipp, deciding yet again that the pathetic interest rate on cash in the sipp would devalue what we have spent time building up so I added to a pib or two and early last week bought a big tranche of index linked gilts called TR40. They are the nearest thing I could find to the ns and i index linked certs.
Barclays is launching a 10 year inflation linked bond which looks interesting at first glance. Annual change in RPI is added annually to the coupon (inflation), with a minimum 3% annual guarantee (if deflation). Tradeable in £1K+ amounts in ISA/SIPP, but note possible 1% bid/offer spread.
IC appraisal and details here, worth reading:
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/Tips/Buy/MiniTips/article/20100929/d9e6cc9a-cbb2-11df-95d8-00144f2af8e8/Barclays-bond-to-beat-inflation.jsp
and Barclay's literature here:
http://www.fixedincomeinvestor.co.uk/sdoc/3487-1.pdf
JamesU0 -
^^ Sounds too good. Not a fan of Gilts but at least inflation linked ones are hedged against their weakness.
Its not revolutionary to suggest something expensive will get cheaper and thats my take on bonds. More on that here: http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2010/10/14/when-the-levee-breaks/
Some say high yield bonds are most vulnerable but Im not so sure on that, Im not sure they are expensive it depends if the underlying company is going to do badly. I think Im getting 5% on bonds in poland, brazil, etc paid in those currencies
I bought and sold ABG recently. Then today they came out with a forecast at the lower end which caused them to blip down.
They have more results at month end hence I think they are cheaper then need be and could do better so I hold them again
Its around the IPO price still which was in the spring.
Gold rose alot and I think it may fall back right now because the dollar is finding that support around 76 .
Sold BHP because its gained over 20% and I chose this share to be bearish on and to circulate money with. Next time for a big company like this I should buy twice as much and then keep a bit after profits
22.85 is topside I wrote down, its not near but Im negative on the market generally
CEY bounced, POG recovered some and questor says expect weakness and to hold but I will accumulate a bit
Barc coming down a bit in price, I think its cheapest (vs potential to rise) of uk banks. It is in a down trend but I got a bit in a similar way to POG to hold longer term
Telefonica and Santander doing better with the euro. They appear better compared to sterling. They both pay good divs and I'd rather not sell and I dont have them especially at a top, more fiddly to trade these.
I could have bought more of TEF, I even had free commission
Drax has not really been in this rally at all but Im not especially wanting more of them so I agree. I will reinvest dividends I guess0 -
yes James I did look at those but settled on the index linked gilts as the risk profile has to be low due to my dh being retired now. The sipp is being used for drawdown and as long as I can get enough dividends and interest to provide his yearly pension plus a bit of capital growth, then I am happy and so is he. I still have a substantial amount of cash to use but will wait awhile as the stockmarket always goes down as well as up and imo there is limited upside0
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I agree with limited upside but the main danger is dollars devaluation means actual worth is not apparent. FTSE topped August 2009 valued in gold for example and probably not that dissimilar in other goods I guess
Anyhow just spotted this free offer for access to moneyam which Ive found useful even on its free service. Fill out a survey and they'll give you some free stuff, mostly on do you spreadbet or not. quite long for me since I do
http://investmenttrends.co.uk/surveyl/sbcfd10/msm.php
Dollar going up quite alot recently. It still stuck in downtrend, but its broken a few barriers. Currently market is back to boom, reversal potential is much higher then any time in last month I'd say
FTSE futures now is 57600
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