UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

Stavros_3

Funny how the markets seem to pick up until Wall Street opens grrrrrrrrrr

JamesU

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Im wondering if rbs and lloyds will stay high now. Always seems that way but then they go back down again.

The government has so many shares I think they may have to do a 'tell sid' type ipo to get rid of them so theres bound to be another chance anyhow

My general targets are buy RBS around 40, sell at 60 or above. Lloyds recent rights was about 60p so in general buy below 60, sell above

Came across this article. Treasury making a small return on taxpayers investment at the moment, purchase prices were RBS 50.2p and Lloyds 73.6p, so any sid issue above these prices I guess. But selling looks unlikely until the Banking Commission completes its report on competition which will be coming out next year.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE67504420100806

JamesU

blinko

when the government eventually sells there share in banks what do you guys reckon the effect on the share price will be ?

Jackop

blinko wrote: »

when the government eventually sells there share in banks what do you guys reckon the effect on the share price will be ?

Not sure, depends whether they decide to sell it all in one go or in chunks. Will be intersting to see.

Kavor

Jackop wrote: »

Not sure, depends whether they decide to sell it all in one go or in chunks. Will be intersting to see.

I'm expecting them to be sold off in chunks, although as you say it will be interesting to see what happens with the share prices and the timing of the share sales. The timing is critical as the government need to be seen to be getting our money back in full, preferably as soon as possible, but at the same time they don't want to sell only to see that six months later the shares are worth 20% more than the government got for them.

worldtraveller

Bit of a sell off today, but I'm not sure if this is the start of the "big" one, or not. I still can't quite understand the movement north after the last "correction" a few weeks ago.

There is no doubt that investor sentiment is dropping at the moment, but my view is that we will see some relatively small/medium ups & downs during the summer months, but the more major falls coming towards the end of the year when there is more market activity. At that time I still really can't see anything being very positive at all in regards to the UK and most other economies. I would expect sentiment in the UK to drop to an all time low after the actual spending cuts are announced and people really start to take on board the likely result for them, personally, for years to come.

That could well change, of course, should there be some highly negative news beforehand.

The huge issues over sovereign debt have not gone away, they have been pushed slightly under the carpet, but would appear to be moving back out again.

The Government smoke machines & mirrors look like they will be back out of storage again. Maybe the magician, who recently thought that he was out of a job, is jumping in joy at a renewed contract. The white rabbit, however, is looking very tired, the top hat a bit deformed, and the mirrors a little grubby! The magicians agent is on the verge of bankruptcy.

sabretoothtigger

Volume seems to be the best indicator. Previously we had half volume, today was average for SPY and it could only go down.

Right this moment Im looking at Japan and I see it has a similar futures price to April 2009. Its right on a level of support so it might bounce and that could make even ftse less dire tomorrow

However crude oil broke its uptrend. Was 83, now 77 with support 76

Dollar broke its downtrend, retracted slightly after this on FED announcing some QE I think but its strongly up and in theory I expect it not to just be a blip

A way to clear the smoke somewhat is looking at moneyflow.



http://seekingalpha.com/article/220096-more-evidence-that-this-rally-is-toast?source=yahoo


I was quite pleased I chose to sell GKP yesterday though I think by the same logic it'd be a buy around 98p. RRL unfortunately has failed to rise at such a great pace as previously
Things I think might be worth having in future at a better price would be PFC weir JIIS
Questors argument for Xray seemed sound to me. Alot of people who are rich who used to be poor will have absolutely awful teeth

ABG is not anywhere near cheap ? Not sure about Essar or what else might be under the radar



FTSE futures price 5192 now. This in theory is where it should rise from I think as this is the trend from March 2009 as well as convential support.
SP500 also has support here and japan like I mentioned. I wont do anything now as I already hold like 18% of portfolio in japan already

http://img375.imageshack.us/img375/1943/img12815623812299333723.gif
http://img375.imageshack.us/img375/9210/dpzhch4206577.png

Jackop wrote: »

Not sure, depends whether they decide to sell it all in one go or in chunks. Will be intersting to see.

Most feasible would be sale of an investment trust containing the banks I think. Then it can be gradual and not effect the price?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/44b3d480-a53b-11df-b734-00144feabdc0.html

sabretoothtigger

I was right about the 5192 never appearing but its still a pretty negative market.

Here is a negative scenario that equates to FTSE at 4600
http://img444.imageshack.us/img444/5945/largeq2cnw8l.png


I'm just looking at Plexus holdings, POS as it was mentioned a few places and in a questor video as being fairly viable. I think 45p might be a fair place to consider, need to have a better look. They do the new wellhead tech re: bp http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=LON:POS

Also questor mentioned cape, wish I had watched that one more as its bounced all over the place. Its high now. Lesson learned I set a price watch email alert for POS which halifax lets you do, Cape target buy at 200

Oil is generally undervalued it seems, it may be that the services to the oil industry do better as they consistently receive the funding
(like to own the shovel store in a gold rush)


I ended up buying some BNC santander shares on friday which replaces lloyds and barc I sold.
Higher yield obviously and in a way higher risk as its relying on the euro. I bought because sterling has done so well vs the euro and I think the underlying shares are approaching an uptrend line, this either works or it'll mean this share will fall harder
I do think the market continues down but this bottom line is this company is a good one not overexposed to one part of the world, so cest la vie

Euro dollar is near support and this is generally a good gauge to the wider market

Oil is supported at 76. Any time support or a past trend fails, prices become much more consistently negative


SKR I think benefited from russian wheat prices. This tapered off but is not at an end as wheat is seasonal.
I think the skr chart shows theres a reasonable chance its off the leash. 16p was resistance through 2009 and the price now came very close to that indicating a possible support bounce has occured
I want skr to breakout to near 30, next weeks price range more normally will be 16.6 to 22

Same for RRL. I estimated 5p as support and the lowest price was 5.2 from which it has recovered well. Looking for normal appreciation till news arrives, the earlier aggressive breakout upwards failed

Neither is an active company, anything can happen but they both have some revenues though maybe not profits so its speculative and volatile.

I dont intend to hold shares and take the average gain, I will trade the range and I have so many different shares just holding is not feasible for me really so Ive not rebought gkp as it wasnt cheap enough basically


man group is nearing 200 again
watching encore, premier oil, resolution, petrofac, ved is cheap(er) and cairn expensive they have a deal going on, adjusted chart below
I bought cne in sep and sold in july i think though i still have some





Im interested in anyone elses watchlist especially interesting companies

Any interest in Connaught ? I never have the guts for such things

turbobob

Don't fancy Connaught much myself STT, as I said in the other thread, pure gamble The price swings are big, but so are the risks!

My watchlist is probably very boring, I've recently bought GSK (nice divi, defensive sector, and chart pattern indicated a buy), and some gold. Drax (DRX) is something I might buy based on the charts, and also looking at a few things I think might go down (to short). I'm a fan of Autonomy and thats dropped a good 20% on the back of fairly good results, so may look to buy back into that. ABG (African Barrack Gold) looks interesting as well, and I note POG has started moving up following a pretty big pullback. Have to say I have a defensive view overall at the moment though.

Here's a little spreadsheet I've been keeping for a while on FTSE 100 & 250 companies, and a relative strength comparison of the FTSE sectors - just trying to keep track of what's moving and what's not. https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AmC2e0ZRb74vdGV5TmRVeGo5ZXpCY3JqcEZGSzFKc2c&hl=en&authkey=CPiDk8QF

Stavros_3

!!!!!! happened at 1.30pm to cause that drop? http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/stockmarket/3/default.stm