UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

StevieJ

blinko wrote: »

what going on in the markets today, all is red

US housing number are not very good

turbobob

I thought this was an interesting video on the FT re. the yield on stocks compared to government bonds - http://video.ft.com/v/593311950001/Why-are-stocks-so-cheap-

blinko

StevieJ wrote: »

US housing number are not very good

i saw that market tumbled like a tumble dryer on speed haha

but give it a quarter or 2 and I think they will be back on track

turbobob

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

http://seekingalpha.com/article/220096-more-evidence-that-this-rally-is-toast?source=yahoo

Looking at a longer term weekly chart of what you posted above (10 year Treasury Note yield vs. the S&P 500) it looks a bit ominous. The bond yields led the way down in 2007 ahead of significant falls in equities.. Look what they've done since May.

Green = SPX, cyan = treasury note yield.

sabretoothtigger

That is a good chart because it shows moneyflow and I think gilt money influences stock prices. Thats a massive bull market but it doesnt mean its correct, in fact it resembles a bubble with artificial buying obviously with QE but also speculators.
Like mortgages they greatly increased the market size and inversely its efficiency most likely. Markets hate inefficiency

I heard IBM recently sold some debt with 1% yield. I'd rather have that but really shares are better because they have a share of profit growth and/or inflation. Globally that will occur, in the 30's they tried to block off outside trade and now they are doing something else similarly wrong.

When bonds go down in price, it will be like a dam breaking I think. It'll cause strange effects but shares should float higher, thats my estimate anyway




Anyway sorry for the babble, there is pressure out there. Its not over imo

india is a bad call i dont know why i fancy them

Im not sure why, their shares have stayed fairly high for some reason. Our currency with them has varied alot though


POG dipped lower recently but recovered. Ive not been able to take advantage but their production so far this year was poor but for good reasons of restructing production.
They make a fair point that with an increasing price not selling it now is a future positive. So if you buy that idea then buy this basically.

I have not bought any more yet though, got some VED. VED is buying up oil and partly increasing debt but this is justified by recent uncapping of price controls and oil is a valuable import to india who dont import so much. Its likely another canny decision by the head guy

BHP is also an oil company. Oil price was drastically lower recently but recovered some. This company is also justified in its recent moves which the market dislikes. Their gearing is 3% without the POT deal


Heres the thing Kitty mentioned. A hidden negative is future costs




This is why Hardy should go higher I think, 240 or 270 even. Speculative, if they actually find oil then 540 maybe
http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/4673/img12829124416674245826.gif

pog http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/677c45d8-b143-11df-b899-00144feabdc0.html



Edit:
Another comparison, Copper to SP500 price again stocks appear out of line though its hardly conclusive
http://chart.ly/3s2du8s

uk_steve

cloud_dog wrote: »

POG and CEY my two favourite for different reasons.

POG should be twice where it is (doesn't mean it will be though). I hope (expect) FTSE100 at some point in the not too distant future which will help, disposal / floatation of their iron ore division (cash plus a more focussed company), They need to deliver on their production figures which they missed recently (which if they do will align them very nicely with RRS; have a look at their PE Ratio), also they have re-introduced dividends (higher than RRS). BUT, they are in Russia so take nothing for granted.

CEY. When will it stop. Excellent tun company, huge resource base, also not fully explored. Its relatively expensive but not excessively so for a gold miner with a proven delivery record.

Just as a punt have a look at AMC. I currently don't hold any but am watching. The long and the short is that they are a Nickel / Platinum explorer in east Russia (Amur region; relatively close to POG funnily enough), have a JORC compliant resource and are waiting on a licence from the Ruskies. The issue being is that Nickel is considered a strategic resource and so possibly may not be granted to a foreign company. (That was the long). The short bit is that they trade at about 5p a share which is equivillent to the compensation value they would recieve from the Ruskies should they deny the application; so very little down side with huge (possible) upside.

Good evening its been a few moons since i have posted

hope all the old crew are well, also all been doing well on the stock market hopefully in 2010?

all i can say i have learnt so much on my personal journey im sure i have more to learn too

some moves i have done have been great and some not so great, but over all happy:beer:

reason i highlighted this post above i am sad i cached up on 6-8 mths worth of posts today took me an hr or so


Anyway AMC is one of my watched and traded shares

only last week i sold this 1 for a good profit purchase was 4.05p sold 6.81 not bad short trade (i am hoping it slips back to low 5s i be back in)

If the license is approved for AMC i can safely say the current SP is yesterday money and this is easy double digits,

anyway i am not here to talk about AMC but i see this was mentioned and wanted to say my view;)



my question to all


Are you cashing in and saving with hands tight to pounce next year or later this year or are you happily trading away still today?

I am doing both personaly but not buying as heavy as i was last year thats for sure

i am building a cash reserve as we speak also 2 of my BTL property's are being cashed in this mth both waiting to exchange contracts in the next mth

my outlook or hoping that the next few mths following into next year on the stock market

a lot more stocks will come under the umbrella as "good buys" because a lot i am watching are losing grounds on last years and this years spikes

i only trade on the Uk markets

i love to hear your views and your personal journeys are going


all the best from blast in the past Steve:)

sabretoothtigger

Good to see your back Steve. I mostly dont trust cash in large amounts but it pays to stay liquid as good opportunities tend not to last too long. If possible I often try to sell one share to buy another, but the idea of selling one at the top to buy another at the bottom is a bit of a fantasy as alot of them move together too much though not always!


Here is one mentioned here last summer doing far better, would have made a good switch

Buy United Utilities at 570p

Argues Robert Sutherland-Smith of UK350.com

Making the most of his extensive knowledge and long City experience, Robert Sutherland-Smith takes a sensible long-term approach to investing, in which short-term fluctuations matter little. Since this stock should pay a good dividend, and a recent fall in price makes it even cheaper, Robert continues to rate it a “buy”.

To get a fortnightly newsletter from Robert, featuring his analysis of the market outlook, a new recommendation and updates on previously tipped stocks, join UK350.com now .

And here's why Robert thinks United Utilities is a “buy”:

The water company United Utilities (UU.) is not wholly immune to macro economics. However, it supplies a product for which there is a strong core need both today and in the long term. It is a company which is almost wholly reliant on the judgements of OFWAT the industry regulator, which last year produced its review laying down the next few years' water prices and investment expectations. Although it put pressure on the water companies it has allowed their planners to do so on facts rather than assumptions.

United Utilities has responded by cutting back dividend payout by £124 million from £350 million rebasing it at a last year's £226 million. Whereas the dividend was 34.3p last year it is now estimated at 30.6p for this year, rising to 31.5p next year to March 2012. That puts the shares on forward, sounder forward dividend yield estimate of 5.37% for this year rising to 5.53% for next year. Those payouts are now estimated to be covered by earnings forecast at 30.6p for this year and 31.5p next year. The earning cover is 1.3 times; reliable enough for a company living in a more predictable market than most others. It is my reading of the situation that the regulator had come to the conclusion that shareholders were getting too big a payout in relation to customers. Now that has been done water companies at least know where they stand over the next few years. Such confidence and visibility is gene rally in short supply at the moment.

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The company is also a powerful generator of cash from operations. Last year it produced operating cash of £800 million, valuing the equity at just over 4 times operating cash. Cash in the balance sheet of £302 million represented a cash yield of 8.9%.

Apart from a dividend payout that looks handsome in relation to what you get from your local friendly high street bank, United Utilities equity is backed by a massive attributable asset position and in turn commands an even larger total asset enterprise value should a bidder appear. Very simply, balance sheet assets attributable to shareholders last year were worth an estimated 221p a share or around 40% of the share price.

On that basis, if the remaining 348.5p of the share price is the value paid for earnings, the price to earnings multiple estimated for this year falls to 11 times and 10.6 times next year's estimated earnings per share. With a good forward dividend income based on a recently reconfigured cash payout to shareholders, and well backed by attributable assets and the massive enterprise value of the business the shares are a BUY.

Beowulf Mining (BEM) shares fell 0.5p to 5.75p subsequent to the mining company announcing widening pre-tax losses. For the six months ended 30th June 2010, the group posted a pre-tax loss of 221,968 pounds compared to 190,547 pounds a year earlier on increased administrative expenses. Executive chairman Clive Sinclair-Poulton commented: "The first half of 2010 has been another active period for the company and we look forward to reporting the remaining results of our Kallak drilling programme, which is currently nearing completion, in due course."

SP500 is at about 1075 now which is about the top price it can be and continue the August falls. Ie. negative outlook (ftse 5244)

Yen is weaker which should be a positive but Eurodollar is below the failure on 20th Friday, not beating this makes me think markets will continue to be negative in general.
Though Im hoping a couple will speculate upwards so i can sell them

blinko

i reckon ftse will float around 5000 before rallying around oct till jan

blinko

what will be teh affect if government raises interest rates do you reckon lets say to 0.75% or 1% ?

sabretoothtigger

That kind of rise wouldnt mean much in theory but psychologically markets would then be anticipating further rises and so on



forex trading is some of the most leveraged so it starts from there. Pounds cost more to borrow (and sell) so the worth of pound goes up which puts pressure on markets priced in pounds like ftse

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?c=2&week=1280620800&do=displayweek&month=8&year=2010



I was roughly right on euro. Crude oil coming back down from 76 to 75 though it didnt top out exactly, that could be it (ie. in a decline still)
The master arbiter, usd is up http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/9352/img12831817251279173185.gif




Man group back to 200, less of a bargain when the ex div is not close but still
http://www.topyields.nl/Top-dividend-yields-of-FTSE100.php