UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

JamesU

worldtraveller wrote: »

Wine futures?

I'm back to fruit. Desperately seeking exposure to apples given the cider tax was revoked. Alternatively less exposure to the commodity itself, maybe an etf/fund covering the suppliers and manufacture of cider too.

JamesU

sabretoothtigger

Oh well, consider every situation and you wont be surprised is my reasoning

Royal Bank Of Scotland could break back into the black this week, boosting hopes that taxpayers could make a profitable exit from the government’s bank bailouts.

Analysts expect RBS to post a pre-tax profit of about £200m for the first six months of the year, ending a two-year run of multi-billion pound losses. The turnround at RBS will be matched by a strong showing from the two other taxpayer-backed banks. Lloyds Banking Group is forecast to report a £1bn profit, while Northern Rock is also likely to be profitable, the Sunday Times reports.

Im wondering if rbs and lloyds will stay high now. Always seems that way but then they go back down again.

The government has so many shares I think they may have to do a 'tell sid' type ipo to get rid of them so theres bound to be another chance anyhow

My general targets are buy RBS around 40, sell at 60 or above. Lloyds recent rights was about 60p so in general buy below 60, sell above

the cider tax was revoked

good news for farmers I guess. Could this government be a positive influence on the economy, surely not :O

JamesU

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

good news for farmers I guess. Could this government be a positive influence on the economy, surely not :O

We will just have to wait and see if it comes to fruitition :rotfl:

JamesU

StevieJ

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

WT would be right in normal times. Markets always overshoot up and down.
My reasoning is largely based off guys like this, who in 2000 said the NASDAQ would lose 70% of its 5000 high and eventually bottom out at 1000.
In the years after he was right, it went from 5000 to 1200 and today its about 2500.

So this guy today says we wont have the same thing, I figure the reasoning is sound


http://www.cxoadvisory.com/individual-gurus/marc-faber/

From my memory it was a great deal easier to predict the Tech bubble at the time, than is now supposed.

sabretoothtigger

In 1996 they predicted a fall in the markets as valuations were at the high end, but it went on for years.
No one could understand how it was just going up, I was totally uninvested and slightly gutted at the time, I held a dozen bs accounts instead

I then invested in 2001, genius :laugh:


The housing bubble we all knew about. Housing prices that no one could afford ? We all saw that on tv, first time buyers unable to purchase any house, forced emigration. A market that does not serve its constituents

Yet I didnt see a fall or understand that well what was occurring. Theres definitely layers to it


Whats todays big bubble? Soros says gold is the worlds largest ever bubble. Again its not strictly clear what is going to happen next. Soros' fund was I think the largest investor in GLD during 2009 Autumn

So what I think he means is gold is reacting to currency weakness. We know that gold fundamentally is not a growth asset, it doesnt do anything yet its one of the decades fastest growing investments

Gilts are a bubble. A 30 year bubble, prices have risen since the early eighties in america and probably similarly here.
Again its clear as mud what is going to occur exactly so I give kudos to faber for his nasdaq prediction in 2000 and roughly what he says now though no opinion is absolutely correct



Speaking of bonds, Im not a fan normally but I noticed emerging market debt is very strong. This fund has risen 70% in the last few years. Regardless of 2008 its gained and I dont think its a bubble http://www.h-l.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/i/investec-emerging-market-debt-accumulation/charts

JamesU

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Im wondering if rbs and lloyds will stay high now. Always seems that way but then they go back down again.

The government has so many shares I think they may have to do a 'tell sid' type ipo to get rid of them so theres bound to be another chance anyhow

My general targets are buy RBS around 40, sell at 60 or above. Lloyds recent rights was about 60p so in general buy below 60, sell above

With Lloyds I am not sure what the breakeven/profit point would be for the governemnt on a sid issue. Must have ignored the 60p rights, remember taking them up at around 38p maybe a year or so ago...

Addition: thinking about my past rationale with Lloyds, my premis at the time was that Lloyds/HBOS increased market share was bound to a good move and reap rewards in the long term...until HBOS debt materialised of course! But maybe they are still a good punt at the right price...

JamesU

sabretoothtigger

They did rights in December, I sold my rights as it was absolutely gigantic dilution of the stock. Basically it works out that if you bought the rights and paid up for the shares in December then above 60p you gained from that decision and below you have not as they give no dividends.

In general they should appreciate so selling out at 62p was probably not that great an idea for me
In feb they dropped to 43p I think, I will get a graph of their float adjusted price including your 38p low point

JamesU

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

In feb they dropped to 43p I think, I will get a graph of their adjusted price including your 38p low point

Yes, graph spot on, just checked and it was rights purchased around 38p in May-Jun 09. No intention of buying into banks any further right now though.

JamesU

lvader

lvader wrote: »

The S&P fininshed above the June high, looking good to continue upwards although I'm sure we will see a little pullback soon. According to Bloomberg all the recent action has been from fund managers buying back into stocks, private investors are still shy on risk. That might well change soon though.

Everything going to plan, the only pain is the drop in the $ but since I predicted $1.60 to the £ I can hardly complain about it coming true (or very close)

sabretoothtigger

Strong pound does counter gains abroad unfortunately, not really expecting it to be long term upward recovery just yet though its more a rebound?

HSBC did well today and so did ftse. I think HSBC is near the top of its range, so a pullback around this price seems 'obvious'.
http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/4919/img12807665877936665200.gif
I'd be surprised if it then pushed past resistance and kept going higher without FTSE having a proper 'collapse' or reset of peoples expectations but Im geared net long so I will not complain


Just looking at gold shares as a hedge generally as nothing seems cheap to me on first looks. SKR is near its lows though possibly its broken its downward movement. Really a risky play, 21m market cap and I noticed they have secured funding for 10m based on basically issuing more shares?
http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/3757/img12807735655230.gif