UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

I have a strong suspicion it may be

SP500 today retraced gains and on lower volume. Last half hour of trading it bounced off a daily uptrend, I suspect it will be generally positive for this week
http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/5867/img12803471241954.gif


EMED has finished bottoming out at 8 I think. 80% of this company lies with a dozen individuals apparently and they said they'll float in canada and switch out of aim here to the main market
http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/6231/img12803496099953962250.gif

I sold what I had of Fresnillo last week, it was looking toppy and PM miners look to be going through a bit of a rough patch at the moment.

sounds good, top of its range I would guess

http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/9384/img12803498339361.gif
http://img261.imageshack.us/img261/7717/img12803513220393134191.gif
http://img837.imageshack.us/img837/134/img12803515129103153637.gif

blinko

i reckon the banks will be back, there will be another default scare and they will slip and someone will pay up on the loans or they will realise they weren't so bad or simply paying dividends again and up they go

StevieJ

Some positive vibes for the S&P.

The S&P 500 rallied in July after more than 77 percent of companies in the index exceeded the average analyst profit estimate since July 12, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Earnings will rise 35 percent for the entire measure this year, the most since 1988, analyst forecasts show. Following the 2001 recession, income growth never surpassed 20 percent. The Dow has posted a 0.4 percent gain for the year, reversing a loss of as much as 7.1 percent on July 2.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-31/u-s-stocks-drop-trimming-biggest-s-p-500-monthly-rally-since-july-2009.html

worldtraveller

IMHO we are currently seeing the end of the "smoke & mirrors" Government effect on equity prices. I believe that investment sentiment will drop considerably towards the end of this year and that we will see some major moves south. I maintain my personal view of earlier and will not drip back into equities until around 2.6K on the Footsie. Infact I will probably sell more equities into cash over the next few weeks, should we see any major further rises north in equity prices.

StevieJ

Hope you have some good long term alternatives 2.6k :eek:

JamesU

worldtraveller wrote: »

IMHO we are currently seeing the end of the "smoke & mirrors" Government effect on equity prices. I believe that investment sentiment will drop considerably towards the end of this year and that we will see some major moves south. I maintain my personal view of earlier and will not drip back into equities until around 2.6K on the Footsie. Infact I will probably sell more equities into cash over the next few weeks, should we see any major further rises north in equity prices.

Maybe 4.6K?

JamesU

worldtraveller

JamesU wrote: »

Maybe 4.6K?

JamesU

Yeah, thanks for that! My typo mistake. Maybe a bit too depressing? :rotfl:

sabretoothtigger

4300 is my bottom estimate. Thats only 10% below our recent low.
Ive still sold off alot of companies as they have reached new highs as I think it would be foolish to expect them to keep going up. I hold alot of foreign based funds with fund managers in control so I'll leave it to them as Ive no idea how Japan,etc goes in the main


Also it depends which government you mean. USA is our largest trading partner, we cant ignore them and Europe again is different to us.

Even after they stop messing around with things, QE will influence uk currency for years to come. In fact they havent ended that until its reversed which they probably wont ever do.

I dont disagree exactly but 2600 as a number will not happen, ftse might be rubbish but the currency is weaker still. So comparatively ftse is stronger then you think

The trade weighted sterling index will devalue more then global company assets [Of which ftse mostly is, its not uk corner shops anyhow. As we saw HSBC is largely asian derived so with a chinese currency appreciating the sterling value can only increase - it will at least be an offset]

Hope you have some good long term alternatives 2.6k

WT would be right in normal times. Markets always overshoot up and down.
My reasoning is largely based off guys like this, who in 2000 said the NASDAQ would lose 70% of its 5000 high and eventually bottom out at 1000.
In the years after he was right, it went from 5000 to 1200 and today its about 2500.

So this guy today says we wont have the same thing, I figure the reasoning is sound


http://www.cxoadvisory.com/individual-gurus/marc-faber/

worldtraveller

StevieJ wrote: »

Hope you have some good long term alternatives 2.6k :eek:

Wine futures?

worldtraveller

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

..I dont disagree exactly but 2600 as a number will not happen, ftse might be rubbish but the currency is weaker still. So comparatively ftse is stronger then you think..

It was a typo.. I meant 4.6K..apologies for the confusion.