UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

gallygirl

StevieJ wrote: »

Funny you should write that I wrote this on the another thread.

I wonder what the students economics exam paper submissions are like these days with all those nutter tin foil hatter web sites around

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/2483019

:think: hmmmm, what's the best way to invest in tin foil :think:

tradetime

Volatility has returned with a vengeance, it seems christmas has come early for aggressive short term traders. So far this correction has resulted in about a 13.5% top to bottom drop for the S&P500, whilst the Nasdaq has seen a top to bottom of about 14.3% so far. Both the S&P500 and the DOW30 closed below their respective 200 day ma's which has caused a lot of media chatter on the infotainment networks such as bloomberg. In the short term this is less of an issue than is often made out of it. I see also David Tice is doing the rounds again, bearishness is once again rising in popularity.

Personally, on balance I still expect the S&P to hit the 1330's this year, the current shakeout will ensure that most private investors miss out as they have done since March of '09 and if I am correct, it will provide a welcome buying opportunity for longer term players willing to brave the volatility.

Levels of interest this week on the downside S&P500 would be the mid 1040's whilst on the upside 1115 - 1120 area.

wombat42_2

tradetime wrote: »

Volatility has returned with a vengeance, it seems christmas has come early for aggressive short term traders. So far this correction has resulted in about a 13.5% top to bottom drop for the S&P500, whilst the Nasdaq has seen a top to bottom of about 14.3% so far. Both the S&P500 and the DOW30 closed below their respective 200 day ma's which has caused a lot of media chatter on the infotainment networks such as bloomberg. In the short term this is less of an issue than is often made out of it. I see also David Tice is doing the rounds again, bearishness is once again rising in popularity.

Personally, on balance I still expect the S&P to hit the 1330's this year, the current shakeout will ensure that most private investors miss out as they have done since March of '09 and if I am correct, it will provide a welcome buying opportunity for longer term players willing to brave the volatility.

Levels of interest this week on the downside S&P500 would be the mid 1040's whilst on the upside 1115 - 1120 area.

Tice, being of the Austrian School, is a long term gold bull and so is 1 other in the video.

gallygirl

Woulde be interested in a general round up of views. I should have around 1k to invest early next month. Trying to decide what to do:
S&S ISA - but what? Individual shares, some fund (what type/which one), bonds?
Bung in a savings account paying peanuts (ISA already filled)?
Add to savings account for use to pay off mortgage (3.25%, exceeds mortgage rate).
Already paying a lot into pension & want to be able to access this money eventually but happy to tie up for 5 years. I know it's not much but I'd be able to add the same amount or so every 6 months.

Trying to be brave & not put it under mattress .

Thanks.

turbobob

gallygirl if you are looking at making a first ever investment you're probably best starting off with a fund or combination of funds. Individual share risks are high and broker costs will mean that it wouldn't be cost effective to buy a variety of individual shares with the amount you have. Have a look at www.trustnet.com to see the range of funds available. There are a huge number of options and where you invest depends on how much risk you are willing to take with the money.

There are some funds available that invest in a range of assets - i.e. equities, bonds and sometimes commodities and property. These would mostly be in the Cautious, Balanced or Active managed sectors. For example I have an investment in this fund which invests in a mix of shares, bonds and other. Or there are low cost funds like index trackers that aim to replicate an index like the FTSE All Share. Some people believe that investment options start and end with a UK index tracker, although I don't share that opinion.

As for whether you should invest it or pay it off your mortgage that really depends on whether you believe the investment returns can beat the mortgage interest rate over the 5 years. This is an unknown. Investment returns from March 2009 were huge, but that rate of growth is not sustainable. We are going through a correction at the moment - it is still a correction and not yet a reversal IMO. I believe there are some warnings that economic growth could drag over the coming years, and I don't think the debt crisis in the Eurozone at the moment is exclusive to Europe.

sabretoothtigger

Try investing regularly not in one go. Buy when Vix is high, buy much less when vix is low. Risk is undervalued generally, because of government

Cash should underperform over time, because its backed by government (interference)

simpywimpy wrote: »

is it better to sell the ones that are showing a profit and just hope for the best with the ones that are down?

Thats down to opinion, why sell the strongest stocks. If they have held up under so much negativity it must be for good reasons however if you were of the opinion the market will continue to be negative then it makes more sense to sell and rebuy later

Im quite surprised how straight down negative we got, this hasnt happened for a while.
Alot of stocks have gone back to July 09 prices. Personally Ive done like you say, sold a few performers to aid the purchase of more beaten up stocks.

Some shares are more defensive, they will underperform in rapidly rising markets but look good now comparatively. Look at beta maybe
As Ive held them a while already, I took some profits to rebalance. Typically utilities might qualify but not always

Commodities switch down hardest often. The picture below explains roughly why, they have more variable balance sheets

the whole economy is about to collapse

usa, uk and europe are not the whole worlds economy so I think the brief answer is no. How well they readjust to whatever happens next might make prices jump all over the place.
Alot of that is perception, fear is the risk of all the things that might happen but most never will


http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/video/market-and-shares/content.aspx?ID=401475

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I noticed vodafone is at support, as is HSBA and RDSB which would mean today could easily be positive.


Kaz might be at support.

I wasnt totally wrong here, vod has gone sideways in total. If it opens above 131.4 it'll be within the uptrend and that has to be bullish I guess. Otherwise we have it at support above 129
125 is the weeks downside target, it seems relatively stable presuming any of these lines drawn in the sand mean anything. It pays to watch the tide

The big 4 are about 30% of the FTSE 100

HSBA is similar, an open above 640 would be a good sign or it may exceed last weeks lows 5% downside

Kaz closed the week below support as did Hsbc. This is last years best performer, it has a long way to go

I bought some of BP on friday, looking for it to stay above 495

Again Shell I think is near support.
An open above 1750 I think would be more positive. All these targets are weekly so its not absolute on one day only, downside is about 6% which would match an uptrend from July

This kinda matches why ftse 5000 has been visited a few times, the autumn and feb. If support fails then 4500 also seems correct to me



Eurodollar opened sideways today. Its very uncertain but I plotted it in a shortterm uptrend and I'll update if it breaks that
http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/9273/img12746596459658965992.gif
http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/452/img12746610863542110445.gif

Levels of interest this week on the downside S&P500 would be the mid 1040's whilst on the upside 1115 - 1120 area.

Last weeks low roughly matches March 09 lows but we are really stretching it there. Does this really still count as uptrend, its a tad broken for now

1059 would match that low for this week (and still be bullish, I guess) I have snp futures opening today below resistance at 1091 and 1110 which I remember being a recent blowout point, big volume I think.


Beyond that I dont know. Volume profile gap also matches bigger downside possible http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/7707/55723218.png

tradetime

Last weeks low roughly matches March 09 lows but we are really stretching it there. Does this really still count as uptrend, its a tad broken for now

1059 would match that low for this week (and still be bullish, I guess) I have snp futures opening today below resistance at 1091 and 1110 which I remember being a recent blowout point, big volume I think.

I'm assuming you mean the March '10 low? March '09 low was 666 on the SPX or am I totally missing your drift? (always possible )
Feb '10 swing low of the last correction was 1044.5, which is an obvious target here, I have a run through target to 1019 (most lower targets have not been hit on the downside lately but the politicians are active so anything's possible). Friday's action sets us up for a longside play if entry sets up, but it is counter trend.

There is no question that considerable technical damage has been done with regard to trendlines, MA's, etc, but in such severe moves as we have had since '09 coupled with the level of volatility, that is to be expected. I tend to view trendlines and MA's as merely reference points. Of course it also makes it very difficult to spot a reversal if it comes in because you are allowing for wild swings. Are we still in an uptrend? On anything below the weekly's, no. We have lower highs and lower lows established on all shorter time frames. Longside trades, for short term traders, are counter trend here, and thus higher risk.

tradetime

With regards to Shell, anybody know why both their A shares and B shares have a listing on the exchange RDSA and RDSB and is there any obvious advantage in buying one over the other for longer term holding?

turbobob

tradetime wrote: »

With regards to Shell, anybody know why both their A shares and B shares have a listing on the exchange RDSA and RDSB and is there any obvious advantage in buying one over the other for longer term holding?

Often wondered, but thought it was to do with the currency that dividends were paid in. I found a post on TMF that might help - http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9815858

tradetime

turbobob wrote: »

Often wondered, but thought it was to do with the currency that dividends were paid in. I found a post on TMF that might help - http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9815858

Thanx for that turbobob useful info.:beer: