UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

StevieJ

cloud_dog wrote: »

Ummm, No. I was [STRIKE]picked up on this thought[/STRIKE] corrected on this by another MSEr. The majority of UTs/OIECs/ITs accumulation funds that automatically assign dividends to the NAV are still liable to income tax delcaration.

I cant find the post / IR info atm but will post a link if I find it.

The annual statement should identify the income element for income tax, of course this is only relevant to HR tax payers.

lvader

Yesterday I bought into Shell and Rio Tinto while the shares were down, both recovered quite well yesterday and did well today, Rio up 3.22% on the day. Rio looks quite good value for money at the moment, they have resolved their debt issues and are starting to become cash rich.

turbobob

Another big move today. These 150+ point moves in a day are becoming par for the course. However something that stands out for me is that today did not have the tremendous volumes we saw last week. For example, during last Fridays shake out, volume on the LSE was over twice the average. Huge volume last Monday as well, with likely a lot of short covering. Today, volume on the LSE was just under average.

sabretoothtigger

spy volume is above average but not as much as it was before.

This reminds me of Feburary, 5th was the low and it recovered but I shorted the index for about a week around then because it was seriously negative but we know it recovered and so I dont think its topped for the moment
I havent seriously looked at my charts recently though


If we reran the cycle at a faster pace that'd convince me we'd be moving downwards some more, so if this negative mood lasts less then a week that'd add to the argument for a larger move down I think (eventually) I dont think this is it right now though


Any big move creates like mini tremors after it I think. Pivot levels and all sorts of automated trading scales are knocked up a notch and it takes a while for them to return to normal


So in one word, confused :laugh: Or the bullish view, consolidation






This looks like good stuff to keep in mind

1. Myth - Profits are higher in fast-growing industries

They're not, because everyone else knows they are fast growing. Returns are often higher in unfashionable activities, like tobacco. Best are industries that grow faster than expected - whether expectations are high or low.

2. Myth - Most industries are concentrating around a few global brands

Some are, some aren't. The overall trend of concentration has been down over the past twenty years - even in automobiles.

3. Myth - A company can get the middleman's profit by vertical integration

But it will have to pay for it- you don't save the highwayman's toll by buying his business. Vertical integration pays only when a company can use it to extend its market power., or take control of assets that are specific to its business.

4. Myth - Diversification increases the quality of business earnings

Sorry, but a company's shareholders can diversify more cheaply than it can. Brokerage commissions are a lot less than takeover premiums.

5. Myth - New technologies increase profits

If new technologies are generally applicable, then competition means that the benefits will go to consumers. Not just most of them, all of them. New technology has always been better news for customers than shareholders.

6. Look at industry specifics, not assertions about trends

Few generalisations about industry structure stand up. You need to understand the specific nature of competitive advantage in each industry.

7. Competitive advantages come from distinctive capabilities

The only way to make profits above the cost of capital in the long run is to do something others can't - and still can't after they see the benefits to the company that can.

8. Myth - First mover advantages are key - the early bird catches the worm

Not often, in business. There are very few industries in which being first is the basis of a sustained distinctive capability. How many of us have Ampex video recorders?

9. Myth - Market share is the key to profitability

High market share is associated with higher profitability. But that doesn't mean higher market share causes higher profitability. Sustainable competitive advantage is the source - the only source - of both higher market share and higher profitability.

10. Beware financial engineering

Over the long run, the only place shareholder value can come from is cash generated by operating businesses.

The Harriman Book of Investing Rules costs 19.99 in the Square Mile Bookstore and can be bought by clicking here

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Why Im buying POG today - http://img188.imageshack.us/img188/6936/img12732434267228.gif
Its not yet a falling knife

http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/9355/img12740533724060346991.gif

This one turned out ok, it came up odds. If I could predict this often enough it would be profitable
Thats a 15% gain over 5 trading days but ironically now again its below the 5 day average price and close to that resistance so presumably profits should be taken though gold is at all time high I believe

HOC also gained well though it was less certain, BNC bounced about 20% and has probably lost most of it again now
Hoc is also near trend resistance going forward

worldtraveller

FTSE sub 5K this week??

BathingApe

worldtraveller wrote: »

FTSE sub 5K this week??

I hope so. Can't beat a good healthy market correction. Especially when you have funds just waiting to be invested.

turbobob

Is this just a case of "sell in May"?

May 2006


This was a classic "sell in May" situation, with a rally around St Legers day. Note the initial move down was just over 10%, and lows were re-tested (and held) around 3 weeks after the initial move downwards. Like the 2010 correction, this went from a moderate uptrend with notably low volatility (note bollinger bandwidth indicator, which is a volatility measure) to a period of much higher volatility.

May 2010 (up until yesterday)


Like the 2006 correction the FTSE crossed from above the 20 day moving average to below the 200 day in short order. My guess would be there will be a re-test of the lows. If the lows fail to hold, then it'll move to another downleg. Possible support at 4950, 4800, 4650.

Stockmarkets seem to be following the Euro to a degree. At the moment the Euro is not looking too good..

tonygee_3

turbobob wrote: »

Is this just a case of "sell in May"?

Not the 'classic' sell in MAY,cos this isnt a 'normal' year.The selling is for the reasons I highlighted in MARCH and was fully expected.Comparing 2 charts is like comparing passing clouds..meaningless.Dont rigidly expect it to follow same pattern.Dont overcommit or be TOO scared to buy.;)

Stavros_3

There 's a big s**t sandwich out there, and were all gonna have to take a bite of it

turbobob

tonygee wrote: »

Comparing 2 charts is like comparing passing clouds..meaningless.Dont rigidly expect it to follow same pattern.Dont overcommit or be TOO scared to buy.;)

That was not the intention, but merely pointing out the similarities so far. The reasons behind moves change but the psychology of people who make up the market probably remains constant. Fear, greed, overconfidence, panic, it's all there.

The Euro problem is not the first of its type and it won't be the last. In fairly recent history you had things like the Asian currency crisis (1997), Russian and Argentine crises (1998 and 2002 respectively). This ones a bit closer to home though.

There 's a big s**t sandwich out there, and were all gonna have to take a bite of it

:rotfl: