UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

artha

turbobob wrote: »

I think the deeper fear is of contagion, and that other countries will default on their debt. So far it would appear the markets are not convinced any of this is under control. CDS (contracts that are bets on credit defaults) on various European countries and banks rose sharply this week, indicating there's increasing fear of the crisis spreading.

Something is very different about the current pullback compared to those of the last 12 months when I look at how various of my funds have been affected. Strategic bond funds have taken a much bigger hit compared to straight equity funds than I might have expected

lvader

artha wrote: »

Something is very different about the current pullback compared to those of the last 12 months when I look at how various of my funds have been affected. Strategic bond funds have taken a much bigger hit compared to straight equity funds than I might have expected

It's probably currency changes, at the same time that global equities have tanked so has the £ so the value of the funds in stirling have stayed more stable than they would have. Over the next few weeks we could see the Euro and £ recover while stock continue to fall, if that happens you will see much bigger loses in equity funds.

artha

lvader wrote: »

It's probably currency changes, at the same time that global equities have tanked so has the £ so the value of the funds in stirling have stayed more stable than they would have. Over the next few weeks we could see the Euro and £ recover while stock continue to fall, if that happens you will see much bigger loses in equity funds.

Yes I realise that my overseas funds have not taken as big a hit due to weakening pound but I was comparing GBP strategic with GBP UK equity

JamesU

StevieJ wrote: »

I think the markets are more concerned with Greece than the composition of the
UK govt.

Yes, I think UK politics is just a sideshow compared to the problems with sovereign debt in Europe as a whole. Amusing piece on newsnight last night, not sure if anybody saw it. Paul Mason explained how UK gilts rose in phases through the day, going down positively as NC, GB and DC gave reassuring speeches and vibes. Then Hugh Hendry (Eclectica) was interviewed and eloquently dismissed the lot citing the lack of clarity on handling European sovereign debt and the risks of European banks becoming insolvent as the drivers.

JamesU

worldtraveller

JamesU wrote: »

Then Hugh Hendry (Eclectica) was interviewed and eloquently dismissed the lot citing the lack of clarity on handling European sovereign debt and the risks of European banks becoming insolvent as the drivers.

Surely exactly that same lack of clarity on the handling of our sovereign debt, which is resulting from, and will continue to result from, a situation in the UK where there is no clear Government. Should that situation be resolved by Monday, then it probably won't be such a factor, but this will undoubtedly also depend on the form of that new Government. However, if it is not resolved, then IMHO it will have a definite negative effect on the markets, but slightly more specifically the FTSE as stated earlier.

lvader

I think it's more likely to affect the pound than the FTSE.

JamesU

worldtraveller wrote: »

Surely exactly that same lack of clarity on the handling of our sovereign debt, which is resulting from, and will continue to result from, a situation in the UK where there is no clear Government. Should that situation be resolved by Monday, then it probably won't be such a factor, but this will undoubtedly also depend on the form of that new Government. However, if it is not resolved, then IMHO it will have a definite negative effect on the markets, but slightly more specifically the FTSE as stated earlier.

On the UK side, guess it depends on whether or not the new govenrment composite puts forward a credible plan to deal with the debt and deficit. Excusable pre-election to get postive polls and votes, will be an unsustainable stance post-election.

JamesU

tonygee_3

We can see from the performance of the FTSE250,which is more UK Plc, that the ELECTION has had a big effect(last week) and may continue to do so
Whereas INTERNATIONAL events have been dragging the more GLOBAL FTSE 100 for several weeks

FTSE100 3month +0.6% 1month-10.32 1week-5.32
FTSE250 +5.34 -8.55 -6.5

StevieJ

artha wrote: »

I would agree but having said that I'm not sure why the Greek situation is apparently having such a big impact. Unless of course there is a much deeper concern in the markets that is being triggered by such(relatively) minor global events

It is not particularly Greece it is the threat of contagion to bigger economies like Spain and the threat to the Euro.

sabretoothtigger

edit: only just saw this last page


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_contagion


The greece problem is small but has larger consequences if handled badly. There is no good reason for us to lose 5000 ftse except for this domino effect. If 5000 is lost then Im expecting 4500 at some point unless we immediately reversed


The bullish argument here would be the dollar appears to have lost its recent aggressive uptrend, in fact it seems to be forming a downward price channel for the moment. The germans voted in the greek payout and usa economy statistics seem to be improving


4952 is support I drew for FTSE. SP500 is at support of 1110 but I think its bearish because it closed below the February, July and 09 March lows on a trendline basis.
If it opens monday 14:30bst at above 1137 then this is negated and its just an estimate anyhow


I see the fat finger thing as a future echo but all the same Im trying to not ignore companies at good prices and especially good dividends/profits


The top 4 shares are all quite close to some support, Vodafone even looks quite bullish


I would repeat the 1215 argument, markets dont move straight down or up. If its really going down it needs to fail at certain critical points probably more then once.
We did that in Jan with a triple top, we had pretty similar at snp 1215 just now and I guess ftse would need to fail a bit at 5000 before it goes to 4500


The government thing is more about the currencies and bonds. If that turns negative, eventually I see it as bullish for shares.

Not sure near term but its like a see saw if sterling value goes down then ftse as a number will go up. I dont think Im alone on that argument, the guy running the Japanese Neptune fund seems to have pretty similar views. His fund is really taking a knock now because he shorted the Japanese Yen, its just gained alot vs sterling. My Japanese tracker however gained in value despite shares going down ?

Just this last part is why I believe its best to own shares, not bonds or cash. Nominal value will certainly rise for uk shares especially with this continued nonsense governing

San pref shares are similar yield to the normal shares I think, not sure if they are as inflation adjustable http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=san&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-GB:official&client=firefox-a&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&hl=en&tab=we


Neptune mavericks, they are betting a 3 year trend will reverse!
http://img130.imageshack.us/img130/2508/img12733305826251059517.gif