UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

The march low made little sense at the time. Some companies were valued at their cash value, bankruptcy pricing which is almost always going to be incorrect

Im thinking more about the july lows really and I keep expecting it to bounce upwards from here




Robbie burns discussing ftse

Markets

Lucky I stay unemotional regarding markets. As I say at the seminars one must stay cool, calm and collected.

Shouting various words, most of them containing four letters at the screen is not going to help, ok.

I know you've been doing it haven't you? Of course I haven't being cool, calm and all that. Ok, then I admit it I said a few rude words too. But only when the cat was out of the room.

However it's pretty hard for most to decide what to do. It's one of those sods laws things as in...

Sell your shares and watch a massive rally immediately take place.

Or buy hoping it's the bottom for a rally and immediately watch someone in Germany say something on telly to make it all sink faster than Jonathan Ross' career.

When it's like an Alton Towers rollercoaster sometimes it's better to stand back and wait for a return to the little baby ride at the local fair.

Trying to pick turns and constantly coming in and out of shares as sentiment changes by the second usually just leaves big commission and stamp duty bills.

Mr Market is simply totally bonkers this week and I don't recall in any of my more than 10 years of this such massive swings. Not only massive swings but they can happen in ten minutes. Blame the rise of the machines. Maybe some of them need to be terminated. Where's Arnie when you need him?

Nip out for a cup of tea the FTSE can be down 100, come back and it's up! Crazeee. This afternoon it's come back like a steamtrain as the Dow soared on goodness knows whatever someone somewhere has said about something.

Lots of bargains are appearing and I think one more tankdown and it'll be too hard to resist getting stuck in to them with some of the cash now waiting.

In general I've been successfully shorting the FTSE - just the FTSE rather than individual shares like I did last time shares tanked because, quite simply, it's a lot easier and quicker. I got a decent FTSE short on at 5220 for example. And I've been using the ETF to short in the ISA.

I just knew I shouldn't have mentioned the ETF short for the ISA. It means I get loads of emails asking questions. It's something you may want to research but it's not a tool if you're a beginner as it contains traps as well as good things. Like sometimes the spread is too wide.

The supershort goes up twice as much as the FTSE goes down. The code is SUK2. You buy and sell like a share. Now go research if you want to...

I have quite a bit of this ETF in my ISA which currently makes money from the downside. For example one buy was at 5992 - I sold it today at 6550ish making a profit of £558 from the FTSE fall. I have bought other lots too. It's like a bit of an insurance policy.

For example let's say I had £25,000 worth in an ISA and the FTSE fell 10% to 4500 (possible) then I'd make 20% or £5,000. Enough of this - please can I reiterate this is not a tool to use unless you have some experience and know what you're doing.

I've held drugs company BTG (BCG) for some time, and in reasonable profits - the statement looked good today - it would be considered overvalued on my usual metrics however, the potential of its pipeline looks topnotch and it has plenty of cash so even on a bad day like this I topped up with another couple of thousand at 160. Profits could soar from here on in and it goes into the long-term drawer with a target of 250, stop 120. Some risk with the markets tanking but patience may pay off and not a bad entry point I hope.

Given the market volatilty and half-term is next week I've had a further clear out/declutter so I don't have to spend too much time at the computer - this leaves me further into cash ready to get stuck in at some point, preferably during a big fearful down day. I've closed out anything that's bothering me, and anything with a really big profit asking to be taken.

So, the axe has fallen on:

The final Bioquell at 115.1 - loss £927. Havelock at 13.5 for a profit of £1,050. Treat at 280 for a loss of £490. Harvey Nash at 46.6 for a profit of £1,180 and the final amount of bid story Morse, sold at 50.26 for a profit of £946. Seems pointless waiting for the extra 0.75 pence and doesn't look like there is a further bid coming.

Topsliced Alterian at 160 to close the last position for a profit of £400. However I keep the initial position where I've still nearly trebled. Afren spreadbet is gone at 92 for a profit of £755. However I was looking for a bounce at 82ish where it bounced before and so just bought back at 84.5.

I've also sold and bought back Medusa. I had a massive profit on it and let it slide - I felt I had to sell it as it slipped into a loss and sold at 269.66 losing all the profit, but bought back at 247. The sell-off looks overdone even in this market. However I'd sell quickly on any further tank. All of which cleaning up earns the site a profit (after losses subtracted) of £2,903.

And finally after selling Centamin (CEY) earlier in the week for a profit last time, I was looking at 140 as a reentry area and bought back at 137.5. Targetting where it ran out of puff before at 160, aiming to quick fast on any further market tanks at 130ish.

I've held onto most of my strongest stocks - those holding up well might even go on a list to buy more in the future. I've held onto anything with good solid earnings and strong balance sheets. And anything that was always long-term.

London Capital should be coining it in with all this volatility so happy in there right now - it ought to be going up more if I'm right. Dialight remains a star - those recent director buys help shore it up a do keen buyers on the order book. Buyers keep appearing here. I wonder....

Defensives like PZ Cuzzons and Telecom Plus always hold up well in difficult markets. And long-term shares like Petrofac and Heritage stay there - obviously both were bought at way lower levels so quite an easy decision as both have great long-term futures I think.

Personally I think the market is jerking around so much that for me I'm happy to just stand clear for the moment and see how and where it settles. I could miss a mini rally but I don't have the time and energy to chase them about.

However you are handling it, I wish you all the best. Always better to have a bit of cash ready. I'm wondering where the max point of fear will be to get the best bargains. Could be right now!

One thing is for sure: it's going to be a mighty interesting summer.

Germany set to extend short-selling ban
The German government is planning to ban the naked short-selling of all German stocks listed on the country’s exchanges in a sweeping enlargement of last week’s contentious bar on the naked short-selling of key financial stocks.

The move is part of a national crackdown on financial-market speculation, which Berlin thinks has gone unregulated for too long as European Union and G20 members search for agreement about new rules at an international level.


http://link.ft.com/r/CTBPCC/EW9CC9/2CHBW/EWR0R1/OJ3B9M/4O/h

The Euro is seeing some gains, Im not sure how long they will hold but some upturn is in order as it is very near the bottom of its negative trend since december.

Vs the dollar and vs the yen the shorts are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Im sure yen and dollar have their own reasons to be doubted, if anything like that occured in the news I could imagine quite alot of upside being possible even while we remain overall on a course downwards.

euro yen http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/3049/img12747977015578771807.gif



http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/09/26/cramer-on-bloggingstocks-worst-case-scenario-dow-under-8400/

tradetime

StevieJ wrote: »

Mine are off TD Waterhouse, updated daily, that 4.31 yield on BP looks odd on iii.

Yes I agree, I thought it looked rather light, am inclined to agree more with your numbers, can't be bothered working it out myself

tonygee_3

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Robbie burns discussing ftse

The 'Naked Trader' man,dont like his style,loses a fortune in a falling market setting 10% stops on everything
Anyhow better to buy something when markets are like this than flying high.Bought a couple,think a bounce coming soon after such steep falls.

sabretoothtigger

Thats my thinking roughly but its not really my intention to buy things that will get much cheaper, all the same good value should be paid attention to I reckon.
Overall Im fairly sure we'll go back up (nominally), wont know for years if thats right really

When S&P crosses < 200day avg for 1st time in at least 200 days, one-month return is positive 71% of the time. Just FYI.

This sounds pretty positive and quite likely according to that chart I posted previously

http://twitter.com/sentimentrader



All the currencies seem to point to exhaustion but the SP500 continues up for the moment, I would guess it will fill the gap from previous close and then retract for end of today as daytraders go home in cash

StevieJ

US markets making a bit of a recovery from earlier lows, with exchange rate movements UK investors could even make a profit on the day maybe see a rebound in Asia tonight.

wombat42_2

I'm "penbat1" on twitter for anybody who is interested. I have a few tasty financial followers and followings.

StevieJ

S&P erases 3% losses and finishes in the black.

turbobob

Crazy times. Sentiment seems to swing on a dime. Opened up a speculative KAZ long earlier today at 1059p through a spread bet, so hoping for a little bounce on that tomorrow. Other than that have mainly been shorting the FTSE, bit by bit. With hindsight would have been better to open up an FTSE short and leave it running for the last month

tradetime

turbobob wrote: »

Crazy times. Sentiment seems to swing on a dime. Opened up a speculative KAZ long earlier today at 1059p through a spread bet, so hoping for a little bounce on that tomorrow. Other than that have mainly been shorting the FTSE, bit by bit. With hindsight would have been better to open up an FTSE short and leave it running for the last month

Yes crazy days indeed, sentiment may have shifted once again. 1044 area SPX produced a sharp reaction. The unfolding Eurozone news is enough to move the markets short term. Korea also, whilst less important is still in the spotlight. Biggest problem with this level of volatility is that stops are much wider by necessity and thus position sizes must be scaled back to accommodate. As if all that wasn't enough we have a 3 day weekend coming up. Would be careful with shorts for the rest of this week at least. Gold has held up very well in the face of US$ strength.

tradetime

Bought some Aviva for ISA on the open