UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

Obama says they will pay for it is the best I would know. The actual rig destroyed was hired and its loss is not at their cost I guess but the clean up is all theirs I believe

Every oil and services company from across america is being requested to help at any expense, some methods never used before will be tried as well as relief drilling which takes time

This comes in a larger context of americas energy policy hence obama weighing in big time.
Oil's loss is natural gas gain most likely imo and it was already obvious to me that america should just spend the money needed to utilise their massive existing reserves.

There is a bill passing congress at present I believe and this should influence it but judging politics is voodoo trading so good luck with that


This might all explain RDSB breaking out. I see a topside of about 20.26

JamesU

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Obama says they will pay for it is the best I would know. The actual rig destroyed was hired and its loss is not at their cost I guess but the clean up is all theirs I believe

If liable to clean-up and compensation, easily $10 billion, approx 10% market cap. Find it difficult to price this in.

Ignore this post, just realised some discussion yesterday!

JamesU

blinko

anyone see barclays slide !!!

clean upcosts will cost bundles, but i think this would already be priced in

tradetime

tonygee wrote: »

;)Well done,trade,seems to have(temporarily?)bottomed at 570
I couldnt log into iii,thats why I have 3 brokers(just in case)find TDW the best
If BP tanks(sub £5)I will fill my boots;)

Did u get back into AV. 3.50?

Had to go out, other commitments today just got back, another Limit order hit @ 565 so average of 568.5p + costs and comms.

No Tony, never bothered with AV since all my ISA money was committed until April 6th and I don't know much about it anyway, was just an opportunity seemed to pop up back then. I only play the odd UK stock in my ISA.
. With BP I've been watching for an opportunity to buy into this space, integrated oils, and the timing of this was fortunate.

Anybody happen to know if BP is liable to full costs of clean-up and/or likely to have insurance for this? $5 billion dollars approx with Exon spillage......long term effect on share price.......

JamesU

Too early to say on that. Obama has said "BP will bear the costs of the cleanup."
But with all due respect to him, he's a politician, and he's talking to the electorate in a language he believes they understand, if you've watched any of the Goldman stuff, or even just politicians talking, you realize that what politicians say, and fact are not necessarily related.
BP has as I understand it a 65% stake in that particular venture, on top of that the platform in question was owned and operated by Transocean (RIG), so I suspect, at the very least BP will have someone to share the costs, don't know what insurance may come into play either

Ifts

Barclays Capital reported good profits but concerns over its retail business affected the share price.

BP's clean up costs is hard to estimate especially as the oil is still leaking. It was costing roughly $6M a day when they were trying to clean up out at sea but this will rise significantly now the oil has started to reach the shore line and the spill has got bigger. They are going to start drilling a relief well this weekend (could take 2/3 months) and another drilling platform is on its way should they need to drill a 2nd one (relief well costs are about $100M each).
Going to see after the weekend will poss top up @ 550 ish and hold, 6% divi better than holding money on deposit.

sabretoothtigger

AV closed below 350 I saw but might not be significant depending on how indexes go

BP confirmed Friday that it is self-insured for any costs related to the spill, so the company will have to absorb its full share of spending currently running about $6 million a day plus $100 million which it expects will be spent bringing in another rig to drill a relief well.

I do remember with Exxon it went on a long time, theres some hope they can contain it better I guess

I think theres some arbitrage trade between bp and rdsb and the div dates being the same would seem to confirm that.

As BP got its low, roughly at the uptrend line from then on Shell fell as did the FTSE
The close for BP was below recent price support I think so some resistance there which might be significant and cause some retrace on monday.



I think this afternoon was a reasonable time to take the trade but I was not in any rush to take it.
I estimate its about 3% off my best/target prices for both of the oils, so close enough and also thinking a 10% gain medium term would be possible if it went to plan and bp recovered from here, not a big deal so no reason to rush or jump at it in my book

Will watch monday and tuesday just incase the odds improve and make it more profitable





Seems to be aiming for the lows, depends on the week end news but I think a retrace of friday is likely right now
BP nyse
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BP+Basic+Chart&t=1d

Exxon Valdez oil spill
Main article: Exxon Valdez oil spill

The March 24, 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill resulted in the discharge of approximately 11 million gallons of oil (240,000 barrels) into Prince William Sound,[29] oiling 1,300 miles (2,100 km) of the remote Alaskan coastline. The State of Alaska's Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council stated that the spill "is widely considered the number one spill worldwide in terms of damage to the environment",[29] but many larger spills have occurred.

Exxon was widely criticized for its slow response to cleaning up the disaster. John Devens, the Mayor of Valdez, has said his community felt betrayed by Exxon's inadequate response to the crisis.[30] Exxon later removed the name "Exxon" from its tanker shipping subsidiary, which it renamed "SeaRiver Maritime." The renamed subsidiary, though wholly Exxon-controlled, has a separate corporate charter and board of directors, and the former Exxon Valdez is now the SeaRiver Mediterranean. The renamed tanker is legally owned by a small, stand-alone company, which would have minimal ability to pay out on claims in the event of a further accident.[31]

After a trial, a jury ordered Exxon to pay $5 billion in punitive damages, though an appeals court reduced that amount by half. Exxon appealed further, and on June 25, 2008, the United States Supreme Court lowered the amount to $500 million.[32]

In 2009, Exxon still uses more single-hull tankers than the rest of the largest ten oil companies combined, including the Valdez's sister ship, the SeaRiver Long Beach.[33]

5000 barrels a day would exceed valdez in 48 days. The ultimate solution seems to be founding another well which will probably be (much?) longer then 48 days however ease of containment could be more important



Euro Dollar has bounced off what I had as a low in its 3 year uptrend.
Im told it could fail and go as far as 1.3015 but Im seeing it has got good support at lows today/highs yesterday



Im still thinking indexes should be more negative but thats my own slant. Im told 118.50 is good support and uptrend is operative till that is lost

tradetime

BP is probably not a trade people want to just "dive all in" with the expectation of making a quick profit (you might, but that's a real coin toss). Unlike a sharp selloff in reaction so something like a bad quarter results announcement, the ramification of this situation are still rapidly unfolding, and the implications and costs cannot really be calculated at this point in time.

As I mentioned above BP has a 65% stake in this venture, along with Anadarko Petroleum, (APC) 25% and Mitsui Inc.(not sure who they are) has the remaining 10%
Hallibuton's (HAL) drilling contractors were on the platform at the time, and Cameron International (CAM) supplied the blowout prevention system. So there are lots of potential targets, and lots of lawsuits to go round, many of which have yet to be filed, though a fair few have already. My guess is that BP as the "headline name" should likely take the most impact in share price in the early going, and that will likely turn out to be overdone as it often is the case.

StevieJ

StevieJ wrote: »

I sold BP last week at 630, I going to increase my Shell stake, just waiting to see if we are having a correction.

As I stated on the other thread - Phew Is it better to be lucky than good?

tradetime

BP continues to be battered in US trading, down some 7% so far today, whilst the broad market shrugs off last weeks selling and stages yet another resilient recovery attempt.

StevieJ

tradetime wrote: »

BP continues to be battered in US trading, down some 7% so far today, whilst the broad market shrugs off last weeks selling and stages yet another resilient recovery attempt.

I make that [STRIKE]nearly[/STRIKE] over 22% down from peak, this really is a falling knife situation.