UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

cloud_dog

blinko wrote: »

when do you guys think is a good time to invest in the markets, im considering going in.

Never an easy thing to comment on. I did take the recent pullback as an opportunity to add to some of my holdings

blinko wrote: »

BUT

im worried about this election, usually may is a good time to invest as there is everyone on holiday and so on so a false depression in prices but with the election im not sure

I hate being a novice at this kinda stuff

I'm less swayed by the effect of the election on the markets, I'm sure it will have some but will probably be short lived (positive or negative), unless there is a hung parliment.

We are begining to approach the holiday season (not there quite yet) and this usually leads to a drifting / lack of clear direction for the markets, i.e. lower volumes etc.

EDIT: I invest in resource based stocks and I think that these should perform well going forward but with one huge caveat China which may mean base resources / stocks correcting whilst PMs may continue in their up trend. Having said this... nothing goes up or down in a straight line.

Similarly we are in a bear market but one where the trading range is sizeable. A bear market doesn mean markets have to fall they can just stagnate within their trading range.

sabretoothtigger

There was a pullback ? Dam I missed it

Tesco, the supermarket chain, plans to develop four “mini-villages” in the South East along with “mixed-use living and leisure” schemes in Ipswich and northeast England.

The schemes feature scores of homes, all near a Tesco store. The plans raise the prospect of people finding a home in a “mini-village” through the company’s estate agent service, securing a mortgage through its banking arm and fitting it out with Tesco products bought on one of the company’s credit cards, the Times reports.

:eek:


SKR registered a 14% gain today, a lower spread and almost twice 'normal' volume. Nice to see buyers but the price is still within a negative trend unless it can continue to improve.

Overall Im quite pleased that some activity is occurring where I thought it might.
Im still not sure if we will see the price travel into the teens before something like a doubling occurs



SP500 is still around 1215. Have we beaten it or not. I plotted that estimate on a weekly basis so its not looking convincing so far

Topside estimate is 1247 but below is alot of trend support I think so overall the odds are good for a rise. Major volume can break trends



Im negative on GKP for the moment, 76 and 72 below. Its drifted sideways doing nothing and I would bet it'll be more down then up which apparently matches fund raising they need to do



LCG reaching all time lows, not quite sure where they can turn around but I think its a bit over done unless cash is a problem which I dont think is the case.
IGG on the other hand is doing great, same types of company
This is a falling knife, if they had not suspended the dividend this year it would yield well over 5% by now


Fres is still following the previous plan, negative but not overly so and longer term likely building yet another rise it seems to me
HOC is repeating February


Euro vs gbp has me whipped. Its broken the uptrend of the last 3 years apparently.
Telefonica shares are looking poor as a result and Ive gained nothing since Feb on them and are looking in danger of returning to 09 July price





HDY is up from support but more important is the strong downtrend lurking in the background. Topside is only 212 215 and it'll keep going down till either the support at 193 fails or these negatives are beaten.
The chart theories are odds on support failing, best to let the dust settle I guess


RDSB is like spiderman sticking to its ceiling. Im not sure if it could break out upwards even but I would be expecting it to come down sometime. I decided not to sell any as it doesnt move enough




III sent me a form to tell me Ive paid the USA IRS 30% tax apparently ? I thought I'd signed a form to be excluded from that

Or maybe that'd fit with Gordon Brown withholding 20% from all UK dividends payable, I guess that applies to foreigners also ?






Greek dude regretfully comments on recent events and sees Greece resisting externally imposed measures such that they will likely return to the drachma

http://seekingalpha.com/article/200708-greece-will-have-the-last-laugh?source=yahoo

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

There was a pullback ? Dam I missed it

In my world... POG dropped 12.5%, FRES 8%, CEY 9%. POG and CEY are two of my favourite stocks (biggest holdings).

tradetime

SP500 is still around 1215. Have we beaten it or not. I plotted that estimate on a weekly basis so its not looking convincing so far

Topside estimate is 1247 but below is alot of trend support I think so overall the odds are good for a rise. Major volume can break trends

Very tricky area we have entered now.
On the one hand we are entering the area from which the most serious falls occurred. One line of thought is that when approaching an area like this, investors who were invested in the market in 2008 and suffered the decimation of their accounts will choose this opportunity to exit near breakeven and breathe a sigh of relief.
On the other hand, given the magnitude of falls in '08 and '09 it is not unreasonable to consider that any investors who were unfortunate to be invested at the breakdown have long since exited their positions and realized the losses.
There really is no way to know for sure which makes anyone long the market very nervous. Currently we are not actually far from my low end target in the 1230 area. I still believe upside should reach 1300's (1325) this year, but how hard the going will be remains to be seen.

The constant media fixation with the Goldman issue is not helpful to sentiment, although I continue to believe the governments case as they have chose to go about it is little more than nonsense.

tonygee_3

FTSE Falls nearly 3% and no comments?
Think my SELL in MAY/ELECTION woes/DEBT prediction right on track

turbobob

Yes quite a down day today. FTSE came off relatively lightly compared to some of the Euro indexes - EuroStoxx 50 down 3.67%, CAC40 down 3.82%, Spanish IBEX down 4.19%... Its more or less a repeat of January's correction I think.

tonygee_3

turbobob wrote: »

Its more or less a repeat of January's correction I think.

Hope so:D
Or even better JAN 09 so we can all start again;)

tradetime

tonygee wrote: »

FTSE Falls nearly 3% and no comments?

I can only really speak for the SPX currently as I am not active in FTSE futs. Given that, at the moment as far as I can see we have a minor correction underway, much like previous events and most likely a buying opportunity. The critical factor obviously depending on timeframe would be determining an entry point.
The selloff was quite sharp and the market is currently in a support area that extends to 1175. Failure of 1175 to hold would likely target somewhere between 1165 - 1150. A correction of similar magnitude to Jan / Feb could target as low as 1115 - 1120, but it is too early in a market that has behaved in the way this one has to look to that.

The Greece and Portugal event, is in and of itself, no great surprise. However, of some concern is the actual Eurozone actions, or non actions, this may present market risk, and should be monitored.
Watching the Goldman Sachs hearings, it's like a chimps tea party, one would have thought the people doing all the questioning would have at least taken the time to understand the basics of the business and transaction types of the people they were going to quiz.

sabretoothtigger

Suprised you chose to Sell REX(sabre)8p DIV on the 5th

Yea its a shame to sell some now but I already sold most of it last autumn. Ive reinvested the money so its not gone to waste hopefully.
The div will equal out anyhow, its tipped to go up to 340 or 360 I think but 320 was near the top of my range for this month so I decided to use the money elsewhere

I still own a tiny bit, will reinvest the dividends. Sometimes a share dips lower right before ex-div for larger market reasons and then I have an excuse to buy back in
For the week beginning May I have 328 topside, 307 support. 300 & 272 also possible but less likely targets


Banco Santander is showing some real weakness now. That would be something I would like to switch money over to as its largely to do with politics and speculation/sentiment not the company itself which operates as far afield as brazil




We closed below B]118.48[/B that trend line so real profit taking is possible it seems.
However this is only the beginning,

Its more or less a repeat of January's correction I think.

It is the same trend line as Jan being challenged (at a higher price) I dont think its going down now, wheres the shock bad news, but if so then SP 1122 would be my target to match feb 5th, 5322 for ftse

Just looked at SPY volume and its 81% over average today which does appear as some confirmation its not a flash storm.
A really big sell off needs us to fail at 1215 or there abouts some more, every time we go up new long term sellers appear which then filters down into the traders selling also, a cascade effect

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prHSJsdi0BY

tonygee_3

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

wheres the shock bad news

Well instead of Banks going bust we have WHOLE COUNTRIES going bust
The markets tend to dismiss events TOO quickly,remember how in 2007 despite warnings the market(mainly commodities) rallied thru 2008 before events sunk in.
Bought a couple of shares but tread warily