UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

DiggerUK

Seems anything to do with BP, airlines and Australia is no go territory.
Lost my gambling urge with Rio and BHP after Oz Guv announced the proposed tax changes.

Was looking at Glencore and Xstrata, not sure after the Telegraph story, anybody got validity on that story?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/7668576/Glencore-plans-55bn-Xstrata-merger.html
They are heavy in to coal for electricity, just not sure about what they are up to, + Goldman Sachs are advising. My mommy told me to stay away from such people as GS.

sabretoothtigger

Together Glencore and Xstrata would form one of the largest companies in the FTSE 100 and eclipse the £38bn value of rival mining group Anglo American, which Xstrata unsuccessfully tried to merge with last year.

They have previous form and XTA is already held by Glencore. Seems quite likely and M&A activity does appear to be rising for whatever reason.

XTA might well be undervalued and/or underperforming


http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/7349/xtac.jpg

StevieJ

DiggerUK wrote: »

Seems anything to do with BP, airlines and Australia is no go territory.
Lost my gambling urge with Rio and BHP after Oz Guv announced the proposed tax changes.

If the Chinese property bubble pops a mining tax may appear small beer for commodity companies, a good interview by Charlie Rose with James Chanos.

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10960

sabretoothtigger

Maybe a surprising statistic, China is nearly half as densely populated as the UK overall (hong kong and places like it are massively over crowded though)

Its probably a bit simplistic but we have more support in our housing prices I think plus we have very restrictive development laws often.

The population growth in China is also lobsided as government only allows 1 child per mother, eventually that will have some effect just like an aging population profile in the west has affected pension liabilities







Santander or BNC goes ex div on 1st of the month, they have a website that gives such info -
http://www.santandershareholder.co.uk/financial-information/dividends/

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BNC.L

7% drop makes them worse then BP right now though I wonder if BP will get to 500 tomorrow exdiv but thats about my buying price today I think so still not involved.

541 is pivot support level 3 for BP so it seems to be clinging onto this though it has slipped below resistance around 552 on high volume
I seen its risen just above now, this may be due to NYSE pre market trading, up 1.4% http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=bp


The chart for NYSE BP looks like it could be in a negative trend but that is just supposition

http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/5509/img12729773989261741470.gif



Aussie mining tax might have made it a silly time to invest in Rio, BHP or even Australia and Asia pacfic as a whole but I think it could be a bit of an overreaction rather then firm absolute correction



This dude discusses daily a variety of trade items including beans and wheat which he sees as having likely good supply and no reason to rally http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=ANzJB&m=1f6FrQXW8s0h2C&b=WSH407tIYge_5nzcnqCR.Q

tonygee_3

tonygee wrote: »

Smallcaps being 'explored',must admit slightly tempted but think gains will be limited/shortlived as we approach BUDGET/ELECTION,theres also the SELLINMAY(so we can watch the WORLDCUP&ASCOT in peace)as well as the small matter of DEBT/UNEMPLOYMENT.Thats my take on next few months.

Hope you ALL took your profits;)
BP holding up better than most so far today

StevieJ

tonygee wrote: »

Hope you ALL took your profits;)
BP holding up better than most so far today

I think it is hitting home that this is a faux pas for the oil industry not just BP.

turbobob

tonygee wrote: »

Hope you ALL took your profits;)
BP holding up better than most so far today

Wish I'd taken more of them Tony :rotfl:

I said a few pages ago, I think this correction is similar to Jan/Feb's. Well the FTSE100 is now on a trendline support from February (see lower white line in the chart below). Its looking a little oversold in the short term, but it certainly could turn into a deeper correction - China and the European sovereign debt issues being the main drivers I think. Still bullish long term though.

StevieJ

No hiding place, bonds are taking a pasting also :eek:

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- High-grade corporate bonds were getting crushed Tuesday, led by big international banks, due to fresh concerns that European debt woes are far from contained.


http://english.capital.gr/news.asp?id=961040

sabretoothtigger

I have FTSE trend drawn with the diagonal line at the same angle as the one above, so I have today as a break of trend however if we open ftse tomorrow above 5475 then this is negated.

The SP500 doesnt appear half as bad right now but I have 1151 as the next target below


I think the ftse closed at fairly good support hence the small appreciation in the last minutes. Also a fib level maybe



http://www.investorresearch.mdgms.com/tools/heat_maps.html?INDEX=1918069&SECTOR=&DPCATEGORY=SP&SPPLOT=INTRADAY&CBPLOT=CAP&DDPLOT=BUY%3A1MONTH&ORDERBY=TOP


Lots of things I owned tanked recently. KAZ was 15 on friday and 13 by end of today, HOC very bad and has repeated February as expected.
Fres is near some trend support , the price represents the negatives now I think





SLV falling from resistance but not on great volume so not a terrible move, maybe even a buying opportunity as the miners were already lower



TEF and BNC price performance very bad but also potentially good to buy, only 30% of santander is actually in Spain. However I think I will just slowly continue to scale in where I can because I dont see an immediate bounce or overreaction occurring.

Downside target for SAN.mc is only 2% away at 844 which means in theory a recovery is good odds however this is part of a declining trend line going back to 2006



The idea of buying things like SKR at potential market tops seems a good one, it barely moved today compartively
Still potentially negative but it seems reasonable to me, the recent rise was from a director buy, all gains of which were lost in trading afterwards but this was expected.
If it keeps drifting then I would expect some action end of this month

Intel is still cheap

It was once on a multiple of 67, but is now on a forecast 2010 p/e of just 13, dropping to just 12 in 2011. Against that, the industry-wide average multiple is now above 15.

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2010/05/04/the-us-tech-sector-is-booming-and-its-cheap.aspx



http://uk.asiancorrespondent.com/breakingnews/australia-looks-at-40-percent-tax-o.htm



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/7673338/Mining-companies-can-cope-with-Australias-demand-for-a-slice-of-the-pie.html



CHK http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chesapeake-energy-corporation-reports-financial-results-for-the-2010-first-quarter-2010-05-04?reflink=MW_news_stmp

StevieJ wrote: »

If the Chinese property bubble pops a mining tax may appear small beer for commodity companies, a good interview by Charlie Rose with James Chanos.

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10960

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_J4g-H--5yg

lvader

I sold my Apple, ABF and Lloyds shares last week to buy more BP on Friday. It's a pity I didn't sell Barclays and a few others as well. Doesn't BP go ex dividend tomorrow? if so wouldn't we normally see a drop although with the big drops already I guess normal might not apply.