UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

StevieJ

tonygee wrote: »

AS stated previously,changed my tactics,its dog eat dog now,Ive upped my stakes,going in large with shares I feel confident in and happy to pick up a few % here and there.
Definitely not buy and hold as I see downward pressure till late summer,good luck to longtermers

Havent seen FTSE as FLAT as this for ages(calm before the storm?)CHELTENHAM next week so volumes will be very low

Are you saying that all the traders are gambling addicts , BTW Denman v Kauto mouthwatering anticipation.

tradetime

tonygee wrote: »

Another week another $,sold my AV.
Wheres tradetime gone?Perhaps he and kittie have cashed in their chips and ran off together;)

Hehe, nah, was on a quick week's holiday Markets have held up quite well, haven't had time to review yet, but the suggestion at first glance is they want to take it higher, though we are quite extended here right now.

tradetime

cloud_dog wrote: »

TT / STT - Any views on the next moves for the US$. Is it nearing a top and a possible break down to $78ish????

TIA

Dollar Index has lost some momentum here, daily close below the monthly trendline. 78.2 - 78.7 is possible should 79.6 fail.

cloud_dog

tradetime wrote: »

Dollar Index has lost some momentum here, daily close below the monthly trendline. 78.2 - 78.7 is possible should 79.6 fail.

Thanks TT.

The reason I'm asking is because if the US$ were to retrace a bit it would add short-term momentum to commodities and my resource based investments, which means I could wait a little longer before decicing to reduce or actually increase my holdings.

cloud_dog

cloud_dog wrote: »

Whilst I've got a nice holding in two coal (primarilly coking) producers CZA and WTN, I couldn't resist taking a position in ETFS DAX Global Coal Mining Fund as it hadn't reacted to the news. Was going to take a position in CDN but thought I'd give ETFs a go.

Should have stuck with CDN, would have been making 25%, ETF's gone up about 3%

tradetime

US clocks have moved forwards this weekend, US markets will open at 13:30 UK time today.

tradetime

cloud_dog wrote: »

Thanks TT.

The reason I'm asking is because if the US$ were to retrace a bit it would add short-term momentum to commodities and my resource based investments, which means I could wait a little longer before decicing to reduce or actually increase my holdings.

Initial support for the Dollar index is in the 79.5 area now that the rising channel has been violated, failure there would target 78.7 - 78.2 area. There is still a great deal of uncertainty around at the moment, my own longer term target for the Dollar Index remains in the 83 area (though fair disclosure, I have no currency positions open at the moment, and I am long in both silver and gold related trades, alongside a broad commodity play for a much longer timeframe 18months +)

turbobob

cloud_dog wrote: »

Should have stuck with CDN, would have been making 25%, ETF's gone up about 3%

ETF's diversification makes them less volatile and risky than individual shares generally. Obviously this can work for or against you.

StevieJ

cloud_dog wrote: »

Thanks TT.

The reason I'm asking is because if the US$ were to retrace a bit it would add short-term momentum to commodities and my resource based investments, which means I could wait a little longer before decicing to reduce or actually increase my holdings.

What I can't grasp about this is if the $ declines pushing commodities up what is the gain for a UK investor?

tradetime

StevieJ wrote: »

What I can't grasp about this is if the $ declines pushing commodities up what is the gain for a UK investor?

The US$ declining as per the Dollar Index is based on a basket of currencies of which the Yen and Euro make up the biggest percentage, therefore the Dollar Index can decline say several %, boosting commodities, without Sterling gaining several % to wipe out that gain. In principle though, your view has a degree of truth in that a Dollar Index decline will usually result in some sort of strength for GBP/USD thereby reducing your profit., and there is always a risk Sterling could outperform thereby resulting in a loss if forced to realize commodity profits in Sterling immediately. It would also depend on the instrument being used to play commodities, if it is some sort of fund, based in the UK it may be hedged for GBP/USD fluctuation.

Added to this, with a view on currency, you can seek to enhance this if you have a brokerage account which allows you to hold different currencies, thus you can liquidate US$ denominated holdings and maintain the proceeds in US$ until a more favorable GBP/USD.