UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

I see alot of space downwards but I dont always predict the index that well. Plus the march contract has just expired so a bit short on data now

Cable has broken upwards for the moment, its looking positive which matches up. The longer term trend would have it going negative again next week at the latest


Euro vs Yen is near the top of the channel. If the trend since October continues then we should see Yen strengthening vs the Euro.
A strong yen is generally bearish for markets I think? It could easily go sideways till 19th or 22nd so lots of leeway I think

possible break down to $78ish????

I thought it might break up at some point but it just hovered around 80 alot and did nothing much. Now I would think 79 would qualify as positive for the markets and then back up again I reckon

turbobob

I'm not sure. The upwards momentum on the dollar index has dropped in recent weeks definitely. On the weekly charts, the technical indicators (moving averages etc.) are still indicating an uptrend for the moment, but it is in its early stages and there is resistance at approx 81.5 to overcome if its going to go higher.



Looking at the bigger picture the dollar has been in a downtrend (apart from a few rallies along the way) for maybe 9 years. The trend will undoubtedly end at some point.. March 08 low was the lowest point since the index started in 1973 (at a base of 100).

sabretoothtigger

Some good long term charts there, I havent looked long term. Theres lots of presumption we'll have weak dollar though


I posted this to Ghost last night. I drew the lines on, it just means I estimate when we reach the bottom line the odds favour a rise in US dollar index worth (bearish for markets generally) and if it gets to the top line the odds favour a retracement (current price level is yellow box on the right)

Because the market is full of gamblers basically they'll often chase these extreme odds and the price will bounce of either side of this like a squash court until a real investor steps in with big money and takes over
I read recently the bond markets determine the currency worth. Without healthy amounts of exports that seems likely

78 would be too low for the moment, even low 79 is unlikely. Like all TA its just giving probabilities. People complain TA isnt accurate but of course it has to be wrong sometimes.

Speculators dont control markets, real investors do thats why housing debt markets failed because ultimately real long term home owning people werent prepared to pay those prices [The fed is a speculator and the investment banks are speculators. Anyone leveraged really imo]





Cable is due a fall, Euro is due a fall vs dollar. Euro vs Yen is right at top of its range also.
In theory euro is at its top price vs sterling but I think it'll break the trend at some point

So all of that matches a stronger dollar I guess


The whole currency bond trade balance debate is much more complicated then I would know really. You might want to ask Generalli or someone with an economics degree what the long term effects might be for dollar worth and sterling also

• Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
• Japanese yen (JPY), 13.6% weight
• Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
• Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
• Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and
• Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight.

US Dollar constituents . Its an artificial measure , the actual trade with USA probably varies alot. Wheres china for example
I think gold will follow the real index, so you have disparity there straight away if you want to judge commodities







Lloyds done very well recently, surpassed the previous 55p high to reach 58.75 where I sold today. Actually it topped out a bit higher at a short term trend, it also went above resistance but ultimately I thought this could be a top for the moment.

Plus I was short the SP500 for reasons I give above, I closed that short to balance the lloyds sale

Overall its doing ok but the rights were issued at 60p I think so that will play a large part for months I reckon



Not sure if the market will keep rising from here or not. Alot of experienced traders were bullish but it'd be normal if we hung around 1150 for a while. FTSE is bullish while currency is weak


Cable thread - http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1698143&page=95

tonygee_3

Another week another $,sold my AV.
Wheres tradetime gone?Perhaps he and kittie have cashed in their chips and ran off together;)

sabretoothtigger

AV hasnt really gone anywhere has it, you turning into a day trader there Tony


Prudential is way up from 486p now, there goes my 530 resistance theory.
I actually looked at the chart I drew when the news appeared and this was foreseeable, 486 is a lower high going back to May 2008 and Oct 2007 which makes it incredibly significant.
Put a ruler on the chart between those dates and it projects 486 for this month, I still think it should drop before june but that was a tradeable bounce. A lesson to learn I guess :mad:



In the same vein Aggreko the portable power people who can whip up 1megawatt on demand have risen 24% since I sold them.
This is the fastest consistent growth in the share price for them ever! as far as I can see, in just 3 weeks.
I had got 34% in like 6 months but obviously sold at the wrong time and its similar to PRU, the hesitation at 900p was due to a yearly positive trend going back to 2006.
Now its £11



Cable is pretending to be very positive now, I dont believe a word of it Actually this a second retracement of the 1st March fall so its more like a double top situation imo. Any major move is usually backtracked and tested by markets

Some TA discussion of this phenomena - http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/Gaps.html

turbobob

Yes wondered where TT had got too. Could be onto something there Tony

That AV. trade didn't last long! I've got quite a few LGEN shares to decide what to do with.

This week I took some profit on AU. and IEEM. I'm not really convinced the markets aren't going to stay range bound for a bit longer.

tonygee_3

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

AV hasnt really gone anywhere has it, you turning into a day trader there Tony

AS stated previously,changed my tactics,its dog eat dog now,Ive upped my stakes,going in large with shares I feel confident in and happy to pick up a few % here and there.
Definitely not buy and hold as I see downward pressure till late summer,good luck to longtermers

Havent seen FTSE as FLAT as this for ages(calm before the storm?)CHELTENHAM next week so volumes will be very low

sabretoothtigger

Fair enough, spotted this more professional opinion on $$ Consolidation would make sense

USDX consolid pattern seen stabilzing @ 79.20s, consistent w/ prev key supp & resist levels"

Ashraf_Laidi wrote:

2010.03.12 13:47: ANOTHER WAY OF illustrating euro's inability to close the week above the important channel top of $1.38 is to show the USD index daily chart
http://chart.ly/y4dxkq
and the similarity of the current consolidation with that of mid-Dec to mid Jan.

USDX hovers around 79.80, well above the 79.20 support, Why would equities continue to rally ahead of an FOMC decision that is widely anticipated to upgrade its hawkishness (via upgrading its economic outlook and more dissent with the law rates extended period mantra?

Keep an eye on the latest S&P500-VIX Ratio, which remains below 65, hence, maintaining the case for downward outlook (bearish for stocks).

PBOC did not raise this week but could well do so next week as inflation remains excessively high relative to lending deposit interest rates.

lvader

Only a very short term view sees the dollar on the up, if you look medium to long term it's in a downward spiral.

[Deleted User]

I am still here!!! Better now and thanks for the good wishes. Bugs definitely rule the world

I am just quietly being patient as the portfolio has regained its high and am looking forward to 5800. I have an amount of cash in there as we wait for our first drawdown cheque in may. No dramas in my trading life, thank goodness