UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

Nice tony. I think I will look at AV this evening and see if theres a way to buy it at a low price just before ex-div.
POG did this recently, buying just before it went ex-div worked well. SL is exdiv on 17th I think

Its only just occurred to me that this was a good reason to short today, ie. sell the news

[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Strong demand for 10-year Greek bond [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Greece saw strong demand for its €5bn bond deal as Athens took an important step towards resolving its debt crisis, calming investor fears that it would not be able to tap international capital markets
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]http://link.ft.com/r/J0VG55/XTG25I/BW2AS/6V4RY6/EWWZ7O/JY/h[/FONT]

Unfortunately it seems I was right about cable. Sideways price has hit the previous downtrend and we've gone down again.
It retraced the 1st March fall perfectly then failed, I would guess this to continue and we go downwards more steadily now

If this matches dollar index in some way then USD is to continue up. On the actual chart for usd I cant see the trend anymore personally.

[euro or yen would be a better indicator then sterling but I seem to track sterling better]





http://blog.iii.co.uk/state-of-the-market/

Ftse PE is 14 apparently, not exactly a bargain considering

tonygee_3

If youre looking at nicking DIVS draw up a list of upcoming ex divs and look out for some weakness in those shares.You can take the DIV or sell before for CG As you say lots of 'biggies'Insurance over the next few weeks
Quick list(top of my head) ALM,AV.,BRE,CMS,CTO,IRV,GVC(almost 30%)PVCS,SBRY,ALY,GMG,MKS,PFG,888
Some have wide spreads so difficult to trade

Not forgetting GSK and OILS several DIVS a year

tradetime

Yeah I picked up Aviva on the pullback today for my ISA, seems like a reasonable div.

Markets very dull today

StevieJ

tradetime wrote: »

Yeah I picked up Aviva on the pullback today for my ISA, seems like a reasonable div.

Markets very dull today

Prefer price £1.90 (or even £1.60) and 24% divi oh the benefits of hindsight (or luck :eek: ).

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=215471&page=61

tradetime

StevieJ wrote: »

Prefer price £1.90 (or even £1.60) and 24% divi oh the benefits of hindsight (or luck :eek: ).

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=215471&page=61

Hehe, it's had a nice run since then, it won't be doing that again anytime soon.

cloud_dog

tonygee wrote: »

Cloud,if youre a little undecided as which way to go,why not sell a bit each week to lock in some profit and benefit if trend continues up

Tony, thanks for your comments. As mentioned before I am happy trading in/out of a position but atm whilst I feel things are a bit 'toppy' there is the possibility of a break out in a number of my stocks (hence my query on general market sentiment / action ; to gain a wider overall view).

Regarding FRES there is downside pressure but the short-term bottom trading channel is at about 780. So I am not trading out for s small re-trace, it may fall through or it may bounce, If it breaks below 780 then I will more than likely sell a percentage (as the downside is more significant).

I'll wait and see how it goes over the next few days.

EDIT: Thought I'd piggy back on STT ways.....
http://www.biancatrends.com/FRES.php

cloud_dog

cloud_dog wrote: »

By way of giving something back.... Anyone who wants to take a slightly longer term view 1-3 years would (I think) be well served by coking coal producers.

BHP have just agreed contract coking coal price with one of the major Japnese steel manufacturers of $200 per ton.

This is 55% higher than previous contracts, 8% higher than the expected price ($185) and... possibly even more importantly it is the very first quarterly contract, a move BHP (and the like were desperate to introduce; for obvious reasons).

Whilst I've got a nice holding in two coal (primarilly coking) producers CZA and WTN, I couldn't resist taking a position in ETFS DAX Global Coal Mining Fund as it hadn't reacted to the news. Was going to take a position in CDN but thought I'd give ETFs a go.

sabretoothtigger

Speaking of Japan I was considering a fund investment there, I think they represent a good opportunity for a counter trend to any weakness in future.
Neptune hold cash and short when needed but they are a bit elusive, anyone on this thread holding or held them ?

just looking at sterling vs Yen and hoping for some short term appreciation

Invesco Japan would be the other possible choice, 23% motor sector!
Japan is one Chinas biggest trading partners (probably mostly imports like usa) and has helped China develop a bullet train.
I thought Japan could unexpectedly benefit from regional growth among other reasons



BHP seem a reasonable hold in general I reckon, layered over many years I mean (near all time highs now, a bit like the market)

turbobob

I have a couple of % of my long term portfolio in Neptune Japan STT. Unfortunately I missed the time it grew massively (as they were mainly shorting indexes through 2008 I believe) and it has not done that well since. GLG Partners Japan Alpha fund is perhaps more consistent. Sterling has not been as weak against JPY since 1995 - do you think it will fall much further?

sabretoothtigger

That matches cable I guess. Sterling could rise as much as 20% but long term I have Yen continuing to gain. Their country has net savings and we dont & apparently QE is reducing rates below the point at which foreigners wish to hold sterling

If yen gets weaker then their stockmarket generally does well and since Neptune is maverick enough to hold pretty large amounts of cash then I guess if Yen does continue to appreciate then the fund manager would know how to put that to advantage also