UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

cloud_dog

Obviously with the weakening pound foreign earners have benefited recently and my miners have done well.

Would appraciate a bit of a TA take on where the 'markets' (FTSE, DOW, S&P) might be in relation to their own general trends.

The reason for my question is that a number of my holdings are around or at a resistence level and possibly breaking out of the trend or resistence.

FRES released (what I consider) to be very good results for 2009 with (hopefully) good value going forward.

Both FRES and POG have (or appear) to have risen above the top of their down channel (although without another day or so closing above this level we can't be sure).

YAU - Same again, it has reached it upper down trend line.

CEY - Appears to be making its way to its upper trend line (too early to tell on this one).

WTN - Is at its resistence level (is there enough momentum to break out)

CZA - Appears to be following a nice neat uptrend pattern (waiting for it to possibly spike again)

So, these are my reasons for asking my general market sentiment Q's. Any opinions would be gratefully appreciated.

By way of giving something back.... Anyone who wants to take a slightly longer term view 1-3 years would (I think) be well served by coking coal producers.

sabretoothtigger

ses6jwg

Looks like BP are sniffing around Tullow, rumoured offer of £15 a share.

I hope they tell them where to go if true.

tradetime

Would appraciate a bit of a TA take on where the 'markets' (FTSE, DOW, S&P) might be in relation to their own general trends.

Will have to come back to the other two, but as long as SPX can hold above the 1115 level then it looks likely a retest of the yearly highs is on the cards possibly as early as the next few days. Will throw some T.A up later.

On a non T.A. basis, since the US public will not tolerate another crash in their stockmarket, or anything that resembles one in the immediate future, then I doubt we see one. I believe any corrections will continue to be abnormally shallow in the main, in keeping with an abstention by the major US investment banks from actively shorting the market. This was a likely outcome once the administration forced all major banks to accept tax payer money whether they needed it or not
Thus I would expect a range trade which will have an upward bias ultimately I have a rough estimate for an expectation of SPX to reach 1325, in the second half of the year.

cloud_dog

TT, useful thoughts, thanks.

artha

tradetime wrote: »

Will have to come back to the other two, but as long as SPX can hold above the 1115 level then it looks likely a retest of the yearly highs is on the cards possibly as early as the next few days. Will throw some T.A up later.

On a non T.A. basis, since the US public will not tolerate another crash in their stockmarket, or anything that resembles one in the immediate future, then I doubt we see one. I believe any corrections will continue to be abnormally shallow in the main, in keeping with an abstention by the major US investment banks from actively shorting the market. This was a likely outcome once the administration forced all major banks to accept tax payer money whether they needed it or not
Thus I would expect a range trade which will have an upward bias ultimately I have a rough estimate for an expectation of SPX to reach 1325, in the second half of the year.

Snippets(ex Bloomberg) to support the above:

A trader commenting last week suggested that the S&P is likely to trade in the 1040- 1150 range for a while. A close above 1112 would see a move as high as 1150 in the short term.

March has traditionally been a strong month for US markets

sabretoothtigger

The world's largest silver producer, Fresnillo (FRES), saw pre-tax profit jump 71% to 457.4 million dollars in 2009, as total revenue increased by 18% to 849.9 million dollars. The firm reported an 8.8% rise in silver production to 37.9 million ounces, and gold production was up 4.9% at 276,584 ounces. Earnings per share soared 141.3% to 44.9 cents. Fresnillo commented that higher average metal prices, "excellent" operational results and lower costs per tonne were behind the improved results. It added that it was on track with its aim of delivering one new mine or mine expansion each year until 2014; it said that the results were a good step towards its goal of becoming the world's largest primary silver firm by 2018, producing 65 million ounces of silver and 400,000 ounces of gold by that date. The shares pushed ahead by 32p to 814.5p.

A quick look at their chart shows the move from nov to feb was a healthy adjustment within the uptrend. No reason to doubt them it seems.
Try bianatrends for general TA on all the major shares, their shorter term take on Fres seems to suggest you could take some profits here

tradetime

Ok conspiracy theories aside, the dominant force in the market remains to the upside, corrections are shallow, despite the frequent emergence of very bearish sentiment to accompany every pullback. The lack of follow through to correction attempts combined with the stellar performance of US Investment bank prop desks suggests that said banks are not active participants on the short side for reasons unknown. If the prop desks are not active on the short side, then they have to take an opposing position, hence my repeated suggestions to be very careful and nimble when playing the short side for now. How long they abstain is anybodies guess

Long term analysis really isn't what I'm into to be honest, since I don't trade in that sort of timeframe normally. That said, if I were attempting to trade FTSE over a longer timeframe, these would be levels of importance to me.

5000 marks the bottom of the range and we appear to have established weekly support there, a break of 5000 on a weekly basis and we have something to worry about.. Currently we are targeting the yearly highs of 5600. This level to me is significant as resistance up to 5650, it represents the level from which the market collapsed in September '08. Until we can get a weekly close above there I would assume supply is dominant. Second visit to this area since the March lows, so who knows, it will however provide a double top.
A weekly close above 5650 would trigger a buy with a target in the 6200's

In the shorter term, these are the levels that would matter to me, 5370 - 5400 should provide support for any near term pullback. 5500 - 5530 is likely short term resistance, from there it is only a short hop to 5600.

tradetime

SPX barely managed to close above 1115, as such this area remains in dispute, technical indicators are somewhat mixed. Any pullback here should find support in the low 1100's, while a move to the upside would likely see the mid 1130's on the day

cloud_dog

Well POG certainly seems to be breaking out to the upside (up 5.5% atm), will need to see where it closes.

FRES is less certain atm.