UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

Dollar weak today, lots of commodity bets paid off there. Slight recovery in cable but I assume it will resume weakness again shortly

The combination of the two made the 30% commodity based FTSE boom today

Its hard to say if investments are back on top now or if the dollar index just backed up enough in order to then gain enough speed to break the 81 82 area its been held back by so far.

A warning sign is the stupid ^Vix indicator shows low volatility, which always seems a bad time to be optimistic imo

last time FTSE100 reached 5555, vix was about a point lower. Since then our currency dropped so the full retrace has been nominal not actual worth based so in effect this matches vix I guess





Prudential recovered above 500 again. I think its still weak while below 530 but reasoning for positive moves were mentioned by FT in their live daily chat - http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/03/03/163826/markets-live-177/

These guys apparently discussed GKP when they were 10p, pointing out the discrepancy in the markets valuations there

I need to look into it further but GKP seems to be a reasonable investment at this point. Long term price volume has 70p as a level of support and recent charts confirm this for me.
Also biana shows them bottom of a channel which in a rampent market I quite like because I hate buying stocks after they've already risen.

I will probably buy an amount to equal HDY and CNE holdings as I guess they are quite risky still.


http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/07/30/64536/the-keystone-press-and-the-latest-hoax-bid-story/

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/08/25/68466/the-new-cairn-energy/

tradetime

last time FTSE100 reached 5555, vix was about a point lower. Since then our currency dropped so the full retrace has been nominal not actual worth based so in effect this matches vix I guess

Assuming we're talking about the same VIX, it is a measure of options activity, so the markets could be doing a lot of different things for a lot of different reasons, and as long as they didn't lead people to buy and sell abnormal amounts of OTM puts and calls it wouldn't reflect a lot in specific about the market, has more to do with sentiment.

Yes Dollar has pulled back to the trendline, bears watching. Possibly a bit of an exodus from short Euro, since Goldman seems to have deflected it's part in Greece's problems onto hedge funds, who are now being accused of trying to collapse Greece and the Euro It seems one of the symptoms of a crisis is extreme stupidity, or maybe that is just on the increase generally amongst those in charge.

Silver having a nice bump up, you still long STT?

sabretoothtigger

Probably best not to click anything like that




I have HOC still but they dont seem to have done as well as Fres did. 430 550 and now 630 all seem to have been ideal times to invest in that stock, unfortunately all I did was post on this thread instead :laugh:
Silver is so volatile that I expect another chance in future.

Im not going to sell any gains because it is an investment /hedge really and I already trimmed a few things back so not much need to rebalance further





Someone pointed out that considering USD dollar dropped today the SPY hasnt been as positive as it was previously when dollar stayed strong

I guess it would be boring if the market was straightforward or made sense even

tradetime

Silver is so volatile that I expect another chance in future.

Yes not a commod for widows and orphans, always volatile. Hopefully we get a decent pullback yet. I have more I would commit to that in this envoironment.

Yes SPX looks tired, but resilient, Mostly driven by Commodity related stocks, looking at my sector list. Dollar just looks corrective so far. Sterling an oversold bounce, I think that one has much further to go (on the downside that is).

My brother on Hols in OZ soon, have you looked at an AUS/GBP cross? We've lost about 60% in about a year, scary..

FTSE looks like it could setup a double top, not sure how that would play out against a very weak pound given the composition of FTSE earnings globally..

Possible Swing short setup on the SPX produced by todays action, much as I hate to short this market, entry would be in the low to mid 1120's stop above todays high with a target of 1105. Support to watch at 1115 and 1110.

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I have HOC still but they dont seem to have done as well as Fres did. 430 550 and now 630 all seem to have been ideal times to invest in that stock, unfortunately all I did was post on this thread instead :laugh:

Sabre, at the last pull back (5th Feb) I bought in to HOC and they are up about 20% since, I also took the liberty to add some more FRES at that point and they are up about 28%.

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Im not going to sell any gains because it is an investment /hedge really and I already trimmed a few things back so not much need to rebalance further

Ok, sticking my neck out a bit... a number of my stocks have broken through resistence or look like they may in the iminent future and I think thinkgs may get a little toppy soon with a pull back but I don't feel it will be signicant and it will probably be the tiem where I complete the process of adding to my postions and return to a 100% invested position (since, oooh, a long time ago).

tradetime

Weak open on tap SPX testing support @ 1115 are overnight.

tradetime

Aviva taking a little hit, seen a few folks on here talk mention that stock before.

sabretoothtigger

Yep I saw it at 1115, previous resistance good place to go long. I have the index as being in a channel since 5th Feb, no serious challenge to that since the 25th and it reversed to close within the boundaries even then (on a daily)

Funny how things can seem insignificant viewed on a larger scale


Today is a do or die day I think. Either we rise fairly strongly or I'd call that as major weakness. The problem with a daily chart is that you wont know exactly till 9.01pm if it failed or not





You can see why I was expecting us to take just a little longer to recover.
Far left is the March trend, we fell out of it and bounced almost right back up which is just not right! :laugh:


[Far right is two red bars which means we closed lower then the open price even though market went up on previous days price - no idea if thats a sign.

Actually it corresponds with the average day trader losing money, investors who held over night still made it]



In theory the $ index is no longer on an up trend.
However Volcker has the support of every treasury secretary since nixons time on measures he is proposing apparently. This should certainly affect banking shares I guess



Questor mentioned taking profits on Fresnillo btw. Worth reading for the research they do more then the timing exactly

tradetime

Yep I saw it at 1115, previous resistance good place to go long.

Couldn't fault you for that, tight stop and you will know if right or wrong, and should have booked a tidy profit by now, I chose to wait for the swing short setup as outlined above instead.

Dollar for me remains in an uptrend, technically nothing defining the trend, at least on the daily chart has changed.

tonygee_3

tradetime wrote: »

Aviva taking a little hit, seen a few folks on here talk mention that stock before.

SOLD AV. yesterday,RESULTS out today nothing unexpected so Bought back in today,15p DIV in a fortnight hopefully encourage buyers.
AV. tends to follow DOW/FTSE,nice trading share.

Cloud,if youre a little undecided as which way to go,why not sell a bit each week to lock in some profit and benefit if trend continues up

SOLD BRE couple days ago and GSK yesterday