UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tradetime

Well that was an even stronger reversal than I was expecting, very strange market, no wonder conspiracy theories abound. Anyways 1150 still holding for now. I think if I was a longer term investor, given the way the market is behaving, I might just sit tight, buy some cheap protective puts and sell some OTM calls to fund them.
If we can breach 1150 successfully then I think on a cursory look at the charts, there is not much in the way until about 1230, so if I have to revise my targets, that is likely where they will be.

After hours IBM blows the numbers away.

tradetime

All technical analysis is subject to interpretation, if you approach the market with a pre-defined opinion, either as a bull or a bear, it is usually possible to find technicals to justify that stance. This is why most people struggle to find technical analysis of much use in making trading decisions. Humans by nature are either optimists or pessimists, and whether they realize it or not, when they approach the markets, they are either bulls or bears. To consistently trade successfully you have to control those opinions and let the behavior of the market itself determine whether you should be "bullish" or "bearish" Currently the market behavior dictates most money will be made by adopting a bullish preference. This doesn't mean we ignore bearish technicals or formations, we want to be aware of them to assist in controlling risk, but bullish technicals and formations have precedence until the market behavior changes

Usually too much emphasis is placed on trying to catch turns in the market for the next "big move" rather than simply riding the trend in place. In the vast majority of cases that will be an unsuccessful approach.

STT, your chart shows a parallel channel, they work quite well. The chart below shows a similar parallel channel in blue. The two orange lines show a rising wedge which has broken to the upside, however if you combine the lower orange line with the green line you get another rising wedge which is still intact. Further if you combine the lower orange line with the upper blue line you will get yet another rising wedge which could remain in force for weeks yet if the market trades within it's bounds. That is why I do not place much weight on wedges

tradetime

Out of all the wedges now and heading for the lower trendline, if 1115 is not held 1100 - 1080 area is the next target. FTSE looks like 5200 for first test. So far it looks like a "sell the news" earnings season, which I believe STT suggested a few days ago, looks like you were spot on . :T

ses6jwg

Market taking a beasting.

I am holding all stocks.

Money on the side ready to buy into a FTSE 100 ETF if we drop low enough.

tradetime

Long overdue, a 10-15% correction in the market here would be healthy, whether we can get that far is another issue.

cloud_dog

tradetime wrote: »

Long overdue, a 10-15% correction in the market here would be healthy, whether we can get that far is another issue.

Have to say psychologically I have small smile on my face having missed the small retracement in December and then being in a state of turmoil about how to get back in when markets were rising again.

Will happily see how this pans out and have happier entry positions

cloud_dog

tradetime wrote: »

Long overdue, a 10-15% correction in the market here would be healthy, whether we can get that far is another issue.

TT, a number of the stocks I follw appear to be forming H&S formations (although not sure many of them are true H&S formations)

POG, FRES,YAU, MML, although they all appear to have run our of steam, certaqinly for the short term.

sabretoothtigger

POG is following the gold price, they had some good news recently on production and will now pay a small dividend this year and more next.

So long as you think gold will go back up at some point I wouldnt worry that much as an investor, as a trader then yea I suppose more downside

Gold, ftse and Sp500 all have broken the July daily trend so this is far worse then any fall back previously.
Its a major test and real downside is possible, so no teacup this time even though the earnings arent bad that ive heard.
The upwards trend couldnt last forever in a proper free market

obama wrote:

Good morning, everybody. I just had a very productive meeting with two members of my Economic Recovery Advisory Board: Paul Volcker, who is the former chair of the Federal Reserve Board, and Bill Donaldson, previously the head of the SEC. And I deeply appreciate the counsel of these two leaders and the board, that they’ve offered as we have dealt with a broad array of very difficult economic challenges.

Note the immediate shout-out to Paul Volcker and Bill Donaldson.


Note the glaring omission of Tim Geithner and Larry Summers. What Obama was telling America was "I just had a meeting with two new advisors, and, based on what they said, I'm launching a new policy."
Note, too, that the new get-tough-on-Wall Street policy is explicitly called, "The Volcker Rule." (That in itself is shocking. Volcker is just an advisor. Tim Geithner is Obama's Treasury Secretary.)

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/409143/Is-It-Just-Us%2C-Or-Did-Tim-Geithner-Get-Fired-Yesterday%3F

http://www.businessinsider.com/let-me-be-clear-how-im-going-to-stick-it-to-wall-street-2010-1

Volker is Fed chairman of 1980, he of the 20% rates which is very sharp contrast to now


http://!!!!!!/ZnOM

tradetime

cloud_dog wrote: »

TT, a number of the stocks I follw appear to be forming H&S formations (although not sure many of them are true H&S formations)

POG, FRES,YAU, MML, although they all appear to have run our of steam, certaqinly for the short term.

Hey cloud_dog, generally speaking I don't follow individual company stocks, and not the UK market, so I am not subscribed to data for UK stocks, so can't look at them right now, will try and have a look over the weekend on delayed charts.
I would say be careful of trading a pattern such as the H&S in abstract of other market conditions, whilst most text books teach that an H&S pattern as a reversal pattern, it can also be regarded as a continuation pattern particularly in bull markets, for a real life example look at the S&P500 mid May to July last year. A lot of money has been waiting for this correction. If they develop into a H&S that triggers an approximate measured move target can be obtained by taking a measurement from mid neckline to the highest close of the head and subtracting that figure from the mid neckline figure. So far, as far as I'm concerned the jury is still out on this move

Out of that lot FRES I know as a mining stock in the precious metals space, US$ strength, and the fear of China attempting to cool her economy is currently weighing on that. I am adding to silver positions on any weakness

tradetime

Gold, ftse and Sp500 all have broken the July daily trend so this is far worse then any fall back previously.

SPX channel being tested now assuming you did not adjust for earlier violations, otherwise it is quite a bit lower. Gold needs to take out 1085 to violate its daily trendline.