UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

Stocks were outrageously expensive in January 2000 with an MSCI World price to book ratio of 4.2x. We're currently trading at 1.8x after hitting 1.2x in March 2009. The average since 1975 is 2.1x.’

http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/news/money-property-and-tax/content.aspx?ID=376152&re=8082&ea=3040&Page=2

[Deleted User]

ses6jwg wrote: »

This is why I am sticking to Oil and Gas and a couple of defensive stocks such as food producers and retailers.

Both are more resilient in a falling market.

oil is showing a triple top and the snow and therefore need for max gas, is almost over

tradetime

I expect the UK economy to continue its recovery and most likely surprise to the upside during the course of this year, unemployment should moderate.

ses6jwg

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP)
("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")
Significantly Increased Oil in Place Numbers for Shaikan Discovery
Shaikan-1 has been independently evaluated by Dynamic Global Advisors ("DGA"). This final evaluation report reviewed the data from the Cretaceous, Jurassic and Triassic formations of Shaikan-1 tested to a depth of 2,950 meters and was carried out in accordance with the Petroleum Resources Management System ("PRMS") guidelines, using SPE definitions.
Key findings:
THE RANGE OF OIL IN-PLACE FOR THE SHAIKAN STRUCTURE HAS BEEN INCREASED TO A GROSS 1.9 (P90) TO 7.4 (P10) BILLION BARRELS OF OIL, WITH A MEAN OF 4.2 BILLION BARRELS OF OIL IN PLACE. PREVIOUS ESTIMATES WERE 1.0 (P90) AND 5.0 (P10). IN ADDITION, THERE IS UPSIDE POTENTIAL (P1) UP TO A TOTAL OF 13 BILLION BARRELS OF OIL IN PLACE.
THERE ARE ALSO PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES BELOW 2,950 METERS (LOWER TRIASSIC AND PERMIAN). THE DGA EXECUTIVE SUMMARY STATES THAT: "POTENTIAL RESOURCES FOR THESE DEEPER FORMATIONS ARE ~ 1 TO 5 BBO AND 6 TO 14 TCF, WHICH IS IN ADDITION TO THE P1 UPSIDE ESTIMATE OF 13 BBO".
IN ADDITION THE DGA EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONFIRMS THAT: "THIS DISCOVERY GREATLY REDUCES THE GEOLOGIC RISKS IN THE SHEIKH ADI, AKRI BIJEEL AND THE BER BAHR BLOCKS, GULF KEYSTONE'S ADJACENT OPPORTUNITIES. THE SHAIKAN DISCOVERY PROVES THE PRESENCE OF HYDROCARBON SOURCE AND MIGRATION IN THE AREA.
THE SHAIKAN-1 WELL HAS DISCOVERED A SIGNIFICANT RESOURCE OF OIL AND GAS IN THE CRETACEOUS SARMORD, JURASSIC BARSARIN, SARGELU, ALAN, MUS, BUTMAH, BALUTI AND TRIASSIC KURRE CHINE FORMATIONS
Shaikan Oil-in-place summary

Potential
P90 P10 Mean Oil in Place
Volume
Drilled (above 2950)
(million barrels) 1,891 7,422 4,184 13,000 (P1)

Additional prospective resources
(lower Triassic and Permian 1,000 to 5,000
(million barrels)
Total 1,891 7,422 4,184 14,000 to 18,000
(million barrels)

Todd Kozel, Executive Chairman of Gulf Keystone, commented:
"This report independently corroborates the world class quality of the discoveries and provides invaluable data for our next test wells appraising these finds. We are delighted with the results of the final DGA report evaluating Shaikan-1 and we look forward to realizing as much of the upside potential of this discovery as possible."
A copy of the final report is available on the Company's website at https://www.gulfkeystone.com
Notes: Discovered Petroleum initially-in-place is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in known accumulations prior to production.

Update from GKP... opinions?

uk_steve

tradetime wrote: »

I expect the UK economy to continue its recovery and most likely surprise to the upside during the course of this year, unemployment should moderate.

I hope so but i have this feeling there meight be a sting in the tail to come

mind you i am doom and gloom with the economy/unemployment anyway:rolleyes:


hope all is well with you anyway?;)

ricll

ses6jwg wrote: »

Update from GKP... opinions?

It is very good news that's a hell of a lot of oil for sure but i think the main issues with GKP at the moment are funding and politics. Both of them will be resolved soon imo and that's when we will see the sp in new levels. Patience will pay off big time with this one.

ricll

was wondering whether you guys trade options too? Any opinion about options at all? I have been reading about it and will probably give a try in the future.

tradetime

ricll wrote: »

was wondering whether you guys trade options too? Any opinion about options at all? I have been reading about it and will probably give a try in the future.

I trade options amongst other things. Like anything make sure you fully understand the products and the players in the space, and of course the risks.

sabretoothtigger

Base worth of options is zero, even worse then shares in terms of losses. I wish I'd take out a covered warrant on gold back in May though as I thought about it, it is hard to say what price it'll be on expiry date 6 months away and they are not cheap to buy really.
I'd say its much closer to betting on horses, no refunds though you can resell the ticket if you changed your mind I guess

I think the pricing can be confusing on them so losses would likely be high to start off unless you got lucky with quite extreme swings in price like happened with gold

There is actually a fantasy trading game run, here it is :

http://www.sglistedproducts.com/tools/vpfolio.php

Definitly a premium product imo, a long way from buying shares

Gulf Keystone Peteroleum's (GKP) star was shining brightly on Thursday, after the latest oil figures at its Shaikan-1 well shot past expectations and sent shares soaring.


The AIM-listed mining group's share price shot up more than 8% to 106p, as investors heartily welcomed the strong findings of the well, located in the Kurdistan region of Iraq.


An independent evaluation by Dynamic Global Advisors found the range of oil to be a gross 1.9 (P90) billion barrels of oil and 7.4 (P10) billion barrels of oil, with mean oil in place estimated at 4.2 billion barrels for the entire Shaikan structure. This is significantly higher than previous estimates of 1.0 (P90) and 5.0 (P10).


Executive chairman Todd Kozel commented: "This report independently corroborates the world class quality of the discoveries and provides invaluable data for our next test wells appraising these finds. We are delighted with the results and look forward to realising as much of the upside potential of this discovery as possible."


The study also unearthed prospective resources of between one and five billion barrels of oil at further depths of below 2,950 metres.


Dynamic Global Advisors said the discovery "greatly reduces the geologic risks in the Sheikh Adi, Akri Bijeel and the Ber Bahr blocks, Gulf Keystone's adjacent opportunities."


So far the Shaikan-1 well has discovered a significant resource of oil and gas in the Cretaceous Sarmord, Jurassic Barsarin, Sargelu, Alan, Mus, Butmah, Baluti and Triassic Kurre Chine formations.

tradetime

Bit harsh, (though I know what you mean) depends a lot on how you use them, many folks don't bother to understand the instrument and its uses, or the players in the space. Just like everything else in the markets "Know the game before you play." I wouldn't recommend options to inexperienced market participants.