UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tradetime

Yeah not much going on Stateside, US$ under a bit of pressure, currently trading well below the 75 level, not sure whether to consider that a definitive break given the trading action this week doubt if there is the will to recover before Monday, but it could well be. FED minutes were bearish to say the least. If that turns out to be the case then the 71 area is next target on that index.

Oil is an oddity, it's largely trading Dollar relative, but once in a while it remembers the fundamentals, and the fact that we're swimming in it.

Small caps I watch, yes, keep my eye on $RUT (Russell 2000 small cap index) Smallcaps can be a leading indicator and they are diverging from large caps at the moment, I also watch the Dow Transports $TRAN, both the Transports and the Russell have put in lower lows on the last pullback, though the Trans have almost negated this, bears watching. Like watching a patients vital signs, a change, or departure from the norm may be something, or nothing, it just raises your observations for any correlation elsewhere to confirm.

FRES is largely silver, I know, but it does have Gold mining operations, am unsure of their scale, but on that ground it has two drivers, the fact that gold hits a new record practically every day, and as you mentioned the Gold : Silver ratio, which no doubt producer shares are anticipating the big catchup. By that ratio silver should be about $74 an ounce. Now I don't think that's likely to happen, however, there's a lot of room between $18 and $74 to find a level.

tonygee_3

OUCH! looks like a bit of PANIC setting in at last.
FTSE broke again as people trying to sell
Last time it happened was after Freddie & Fannie went bust

ses6jwg

I hold GKP at 95p.

Still holding for the forseeable.

ses6jwg

Woops... do we need a plumber?
GKP up 8%

tradetime

Could be something, could be nothing, US markets closed today for Thanksgiving, a lot being made of problems in Dubai, I'm not sure how much impact that really has, light trading on US futures on the Globex is producing an abnormally strong move and the US$ is rallying. Support for the S&P, and the DAX for that matter is right around here.

sabretoothtigger

wow we just went below 5200 on ftse like it was nothing, I thought that might pause at least.

I think a bounce or some recovery is possible tommorow just because america doesnt care about some silly dubai debt, they got tons more. They owe uk 250bn or so. Dubai speaks after hours apparently
I wouldnt be surprised if California outranked dubai in possible bad debt

nice bounce on gkp I was thinking it might come back because this is a similar level it fell to previously on correction

Barclays breached 300


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt

tradetime

I wouldnt be surprised if California outranked dubai in possible bad debt

I'd be thinking somewhere along those lines, Dubai is part of a big family and would be backstopped by Abu Dhabi I'd imagine if a worse case scenario came to play, but I'm not even sure it's of that scale, this seems to be a state sponsored real estate developer that is in trouble.

turbobob

Barclays now around the 285 mark. I've read they've lent a fair bit of money to Dubai but I think this is just pure momentum.

tradetime

Funny thing is, if you cast your mind back to the H&S pattern on the S&P back in June / July Bloomberg were all over it, presenting it as the start of the big correction, and we know how that turned out, yesterday, their "big opportunity" was buying the SPY on the close, to hold until close Friday on the statistical picture of a strong market off the back of the Thanksgiving holiday, could still pan out, but anyone who took that trade is likely to have a little indigestion right around now

Dollar Index tapping on the underside of 75 again.

sabretoothtigger

Tomorrow is only half day on the usa markets, I think they close roughly the same time as the Ftse. I really dont imagine they'll sell much just because of this unless there is a link to them.
However Canada did fall 1.58%



Barclays large shareholders are from Qatar wealth fund, maybe there is a link there also and a sell off is feared as money is redirected closer to home


http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/m2


bbc global index is up or flat for the day, not a real index though