UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

uk_steve

ses6jwg wrote: »

With the Olympics coming in 2012 they are a good bet.

Excellent yield at about 7% too.

I just feel that for the past 2-3 months theyve been trading at a 30% discount to a NAV of 27p, now the NAV is 22p why should things be any different?

i orderd WKP paper annual report book about 3 weeks back and i have to say its made me want to get back in because the manangent looks very good IMO the structure plan was very good


all i am doing is waiting to pick my moment with my Stocks and Share ISA
i was late doing my ISA this year plus its my 1st time holding an ISA

i now have 8451 cash in my ISA,i am up £1251 with a combo with short trades from WMH,SDY,LMR ,LAD,at diffirent times

Now looking for a long hold with WKP or poss LMR again but holding it for much longer

my gut feeling is LMR may lose value more after the x-mas nees up
because club trade from mid jan,feb,are rubbish mths for that side of business

sabretoothtigger

tradetime wrote: »

Resolution was indeed to the upside as expected, intraday we managed to get as high as 1113.6 just 8 points from entering my run off area @ 1121 - 1158. The 1121 level represents a 50% retrace of the entire move down from highs to March lows on the S&P.

Yea the whole fibs TA thing is used by alot of traders with alot of leverage so on light volume I would expect that to be a pullback.
Does the wider market really want to go higher right away, I dont think so but Im not sure.

Last xmas we saw things get really silly while people went on holiday and it was pretty obviously bad trading (and a good time to sell) and it reversed the start of Jan so we'll have to see.
We've not had anything dramatic this autumn so maybe it will just go quiet and hold still


Inflation on CPI now is about the same as Jan 2005 one of those links graphs above says.
The RPI is whacky but that just reflects extreme government measures so Im ready to ignore that as an indicator.
CPI says pressure from rising prices is the similar to what it always was and is rising back faster then forecast so thats my take


SPY has failed to pass the pivot right now so its a flat to negative day I would say. 110 is a magic number








Buffet portfolio - http://www.cnbc.com/id/22130601/

cloud_dog

Not sure if anyone's particularly interested in my 'general' reduction / selling process but by way of an example......

My two investments in coal producers WTN and CZA both have strong fundamentals (assuming demand continues to increase) but since September I have sold tranches of both in equal percentage terms and currently have approx 40% of my original investments in both remaining.

WTN is down about 19% from my average sell-out price (181p) so a good saving made there yet, CZA is only down about 6% since my disposals. Regarding getting back, in I will wait a little longer.

It is difficult (impossible) to understand how a SP will react to market conditions and how individual institutional investors may act with their holdings.

Its not all roses though, CEY continued to rise (I under estimated the effect of the full listing) and FRES, whilst volatile, is above my exit price. Other than that I'm doing ok :eek:

ses6jwg

Any views on UKC?

Or will they go belly up?

tradetime

I use Fibs quite a lot as a point of reference, they make for a good landmark in the market terrain to see where you are relative to various market moves.

Bit of a nothing day today, though one point of interest was a relatively strong Dollar as it once again held 75, one does wonder if it will stay above it once Obama leaves Asia though it has been basing there for a little while.

Most of the economic news today was modestly negative, which is a positive for markets currently, the market seems very "heavy" to me currently, the 1100 level did not bring an influx of new money as many expected, I have wondered about the "trillions on the sidelines" for some time now, I do not believe fund managers are so foolish as to leave their money on the sidelines this long. The FED's liquidity game has created a weak Dollar and inflated just about all other assets, therefore money shy of the local "toxic infected" equities market had plenty of options to profit in commodities, bond funds, and foreign markets, so I believe it is quite possible that funds have performed satisfactorily and do not need to chase the market here. Weak currencies do not make for attractive investment havens. That said there is so much distortion in markets with the FED practically setting monetary policy for half the world who knows.

tradetime

FRES is largely a silver mining play isn't it? Think I've seen it mentioned here before, silver is doing very well currently even though it has underperformed gold in the longer term. I have a position in SLV a US silver ETF which is up 35% to date, though I scaled out of some today.

sabretoothtigger

Why would UKC go belly up now especially. If oil goes up then so does everything in competition with it I think. Bad management and/or debt?



Silver and Gold are definitely due a correction but since they only rose because of bad government policy its not certain they'll pull back at all.
Marc Faber says gold will never be sold for less then four figures again. I dont know the dynamic he might be seeing but if dollar doesnt rise in value I guess he is right

They didnt rise for jewellery anyhow. I saw platinum being described as overly cheap and it'll be in comparison to this reason. I think its better to go sideways from gold into a trade like that rather then being in cash. Its an abnormal situation but faber traded in the seventies so maybe he knows better








Cey and Pog fell a bit today but I think they are good to accumulate longer term



Simple take on the charts is firstly Gold is still in uptrend and the top target is over 1200 an ounce. (the vertical blue line is measured from the depth of the mountain peaks drawn)

That would fit with sp500 @ 1200 on a weaker dollar I guess



The Silver chart shows it in an upwards price channel. Its really bounced up, if it breaks out upwards that will be a big spike up or it could just bounce down again within the channel which is still not a sell signal exactly (long term).

Bit of a nothing day today,

spy broke past the pivot so I was wrong but not by much. Pretty flat for now

Eur/Jpy went down all today pretty much apart from a bit in the last half hour so theres negatives under the surface imo as it most usually correlates to spy





I like this list of ex div dates because it shows the real payback on the current price:
http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/dividends.php
. Barclays for example are giving 0.3% back to shareholders . HSBC Infrastructure Company Ltd is a more attractive 2.76% but its too late to buy them for it now, it shows all the future wednesdays also as sometimes it worth timing a buy with the div I think. This is not the annual yield, this is the more realistic quarterly return on the price

Standard life for example was 190 on the last day before ex div and several weeks later could be sold for 2.35 and I wrote about that one on this thread though I decided I was already invested enough A kind of swing trading I guess


The ftse100 will lose 11 points in adjustment tomorrow.

[Deleted User]

well we have had a nice gap up, so up up and away we go. I spent the last few pounds and have 80p left in the account, might as well take advantage of the buying opp. 5500 is on its way

turbobob

Yes around 5500 would be my guess for the next level of resistance. That is a 61.8% retrace of March lows.

Does anyone have a view on UK property shares (REIT'S) at the moment? Companies like British Land, Segro, Hammerson etc. I have recently bought into these through an ETF. Looking longer term, they look like they could be a good prospect, to me. They have recently picked up a bit but have a very long way to get anywhere near their highs (chart is of the FTSE EPRA/Nareit index of real estate investment trusts):

ses6jwg

Property ETF was something I was looking at.

A lot of the bigger companies look "bubbleish" to me though

I am going to see where we are in April come time to top up my ISA

REITs are certainly something I will be looking at though