UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

[Deleted User]

I have a pretty balanced, lowish risk portfolio and hold solid, high cap shares with good dividends. I have a couple of higher risk shares taking up 2% of the portfolio but imo with good potential for the future. I have good yielding bonds taking up 23%, all banks and building societies and most showing capital growth as well as good yields. Probably the best performer is standard chartered perpetual, which gives me a yield of over 11% and capital growth is over 40% to date

I don`t have any bank shares

Bonds imo do have a place in a balanced portfolio and as always it depends on the risk profile

Cash at the moment is low at £470 and that includes a divi last week of £464

I have no property in the portfolio as our own home is enough to help in the diversification

Another all time high on friday and the sipp is up 28.3% since start in sept 2007. I took the 25% cash out for my dh last july and that is invested in fixed rate savings accounts etc with an element buying more ns&i index linked certs

all in all, I feel pretty comfortable with the risk spread as I need to try and get capital growth to pay for drawdown, starting this summer.

cloud_dog

Have to admit to considering to going to cash with the pension investments. Reasons......

1. Acheived over 30% growth this calendar year
2. I need / want to redistribute the investment amounts
3. Markets are looking a bit toppy (so it might be a good time to sell / re-buy)

sabretoothtigger

fullstop wrote: »

Had an interesting couple of weeks or so, at the end of October I went for a penny share PXS and topped up my holding of STAN. Both have done well bought STAN at 1551.19 after a fall the previous day now at 1683.50, also took a small punt of £500 on PXS AT 7.76 finished today at 10.so not too bad at the moment. Another good day for another of my holdings SYR, which I bought just over a year ago around the 360 mark and is now over 600.just one downer today NG fell a small bit, still a hold though.

Opps just realised your the same person I pm'd about sc when they were 900p in January and we were debating whether to buy now or wait for it to get cheaper :laugh:

I knew they were a bargain at that price. I think they are good to hold and the dividend is still fairly good even now and with good cover which matches my opinion they are a growing prospect


Its interesting that Kittie has their bonds at such a high yield. Probably wise not to duplicate the risk by holding shares also.
I think the capital appreciation might adjust downwards at some point (shorter term) but such a high yield is a reason to hold especially if bonds match your risk profile



The SYR chart look like they are on a cliff edge long term, could go either way
PXS, all time high so uncharted territory. They have a breakthrough product you believe in?
I dont see a fall on NG if you mean national grid. Looks good long term and done well recently

With utilities I think I will concentrate on more portable dynamic power companies, international and also water companies will be important. Not aiming to invest in uk utilities unless they are also dynamic somehow. Will be avoiding value in favour of growth in this case, so higher risk

Have to admit to considering to going to cash with the pension investments. Reasons......

1. Acheived over 30% growth this calendar year

Cash is best when its soon needed but I prefer the idea of just reducing downside risk as the time scale shortens till pension investment has to actually buy an annuity or whatever.

invested in fixed rate savings accounts etc with an element buying more ns&i index linked certs

Favour index linked personally. Cash isnt going to perform that well anyway so might as well take the low risk option so long as its not needed instantly



If you gained 30% this year, how much was lost last year. Surely one has to balanced against the other in summing it up.
Maybe you'd sell anyway if the net result of the last year had been zero growth without the dip in the middle, in which case I'd say fair enough

In a declining market with falling profits, the bounce back will not be as high as the previous level. Im not sure what point we are in that case, it varys on the fund and the country.

The point I was making with Standard chartered is they might have grown over the last year, so if it bounces back and goes past their original level it could be realistic growth not a sign to sell.
Many companies should not be valued this high though, so be realistic on the price tags attached to companies I guess

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

If you gained 30% this year, how much was lost last year. Surely one has to balanced against the other in summing it up.

Maybe you'd sell anyway if the net result of the last year had been zero growth without the dip in the middle, in which case I'd say fair enough

For my pension investments I target average growth (ex. divis, etc) of 10% pa. Last year my pension investments grew by 3%, and currently I am averaging (simple average) a fraction over 15% pa growth since 2001 (when I started to self manage the investments).

I keep a record of yearly performance and, interestingly, my pension investments seem to have gone a year of low/middle single digit growth then a year of high 20s/ low 30s growth. If I had the time (or inclination) I'd look back over the investment periods and try to see if the sequence related to me or market related.

Edit: Just thought I'd mention that for investment dealing I target 15% growth pa (ex. divis etc) and am averaging 35% (since 1997)

sabretoothtigger

Sounds incredible, I could believe that if investing in commodities or anything counter cyclical in the last few years. Cant say I spotted those opportunities personally

I'd rank 10% growth as unsustainable long term. Im excluding the fact you might just be very good at this, but my own target I rate 7% over inflation as high growth and a realistic upper target.
The GDP growth of China or India is about that I think on average

Theres nothing to say the upper target cant be exceeded but just in general its a good guide to risk/reward imo
7% average means the original sum triples and almost quadruples over 20 years.

A ton of people are barely getting any growth from their pension nevermind that sort and I think they wont get much in future either on average. 7% or above really is excellent long term imo


In that context it makes sense that alot of people question this latest rally as unrealistic, overblown and unsustainable

The real value on some companies has to be wildly different to others and we just dont know it yet I think, it'd be a shame to sell the wrong ones



Long term average for holding the FTSE 100 excluding dividends but also inflation is only 3% per year. Could be worse I guess but hardly amazing, since 1984


For that reason I bought the Ftse 250 instead of 100 this time, mid caps like FOT mentioned as they grow much better I think

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Sounds incredible, I could believe that if investing in commodities or anything counter cyclical in the last few years. Cant say I spotted those opportunities personally

I have a fairly risk focussed investment strategy (some would say very high risk). I dont subscribe to te usual percentage game and that the majority of your investments should be in the UK / GBP. I have been a resourced based investor since 2002 and this is where the majority (all) of my research and strategy is focussed. I find researching resource based investments so much simpler to analyse and compare (peer to peer) for fundamentals etc. I know it will end and I will need to re-direct my energy in to another area but I find focussing on a particular area to be more rewarding and efficient (time wise).

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I'd rank 10% growth as unsustainable long term. Im excluding the fact you might just be very good at this, but my own target I rate 7% over inflation as high growth and a realistic upper target.
The GDP growth of China or India is about that I think on average

Theres nothing to say the upper target cant be exceeded but just in general its a good guide to risk/reward imo
7% average means the original sum triples and almost quadruples over 20 years.

No, I'm not that good, lucky possibly. Over the last five years there have probably been three key moments, two when I've been predominantly out of the market and the last 10-12 months where growth has been phenomenal (investment account not pension has more than trippled in value).

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

A ton of people are barely getting any growth from their pension nevermind that sort and I think they wont get much in future either on average. 7% or above really is excellent long term imo

As I said, my investment strategy is very risky, which is why I'm probably always asking 'is now the time to reduce market exposure / get out of the market).

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

In that context it makes sense that alot of people question this latest rally as unrealistic, overblown and unsustainable

I believe being out of the market is just as valuable as being in the market. I'm not convinced there is substance to the rally and in fact the rally is more likely a reflection of QE. I think most people feel there will be a pull back and possibly another substantial correction next year but the market is a fickle thing and guessing correctly is nigh on impossible.

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

The real value on some companies has to be wildly different to others and we just dont know it yet I think, it'd be a shame to sell the wrong ones

Unfortunately, this is something which I have never been able to second guess and take a more 'global' approach to selling, i.e. I cannot tell which Cos will drop more or less but they all tend to drop. I may buy back in to a particular share at a higher price but overall other shares have dropped more and therefore the net effect is my portfolio gains (if that makes sense).

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Long term average for holding the FTSE 100 excluding dividends but also inflation is only 3% per year. Could be worse I guess but hardly amazing, since 1984

For that reason I bought the Ftse 250 instead of 100 this time, mid caps like FOT mentioned as they grow much better I think

From my perspective (resource based) I think these will do well but it will be the minors which will do exceedingly well (I hope).

If only my TA skills were better (as good as yous / TT, etc) I think I would feel an awful lot more comfortable with some of my decisions.

tradetime

Yet again markets have punished any swing traders willing to speculate on the short side. Sentiment still very quickly becomes bearish on any hint of a correction as novice retail traders rush to initiate short positions, salivating at the thought of a big payday, only to find themselves ambushed.

The DJIA led the way to new yearly highs, though the Nasdaq was also able to record new yearly highs. Looking for the Nasdaq to resume its leadership role this week.
Chart formation remains bullish, even though indicators are somewhat mixed, resolution to the upside seems most likely going forward. US Dollar remains a decent indicator, as long as US$ remains weaker global indices should maintain an upward bias.

[Deleted User]

cloud_dog wrote: »

For my pension investments I target average growth (ex. divis, etc) of 10% pa. Last year my pension investments grew by 3%, and currently I am averaging (simple average) a fraction over 15% pa growth since 2001 (when I started to self manage the investments).

I keep a record of yearly performance and, interestingly, my pension investments seem to have gone a year of low/middle single digit growth then a year of high 20s/ low 30s growth. If I had the time (or inclination) I'd look back over the investment periods and try to see if the sequence related to me or market related.

Edit: Just thought I'd mention that for investment dealing I target 15% growth pa (ex. divis etc) and am averaging 35% (since 1997)

Are you averaging 35% per year cloud dog? If so, that is wonderful. Oh you did say in the first sentence. My mistake. Who would have an ifa on seeing those fantastic figures!! wd

If you are uncomfortable not cashing in then why not do the proportionate thing and cash in part ie the increase in value or a %

sabretoothtigger

Amazing how positive this market is, sailed past the trendline mentioned on friday. Not sure on reasoning if any beyond weak dollar, etc *yawn*


Miners up. POG jumped up 20% almost as soon I got some which would have been nice had I not been scaling into it :doh:

LMI is something I didnt get any of as I thought it too volatile and more something to watch later. It declined a bit lately but jumped 9% today as they only lost a few hundred million dollars :j -59c eps
Overall its level now


Mention of ERE here http://www.growthcompany.co.uk/features/1089047/picking-aims-property-performers.thtml

nice but he has the share price wrong, it was never 97p? Not sure how much checking they do on these things but nice to see it mentioned anyway, its fallen without remit recently

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ses6jwg

Workspace had their results today.

Some decent news on rents and occupancy rates, but NAV reduced from 27p to 22p finished the day at 21.5p I think. I sold today, I've been in since 15p and can't see why it will trade above 22p if that is where the NAV sits.

Good long term prospects, I shall keep an eye on them.

AMINEX looking promising, will buy some more tomorrow.

UNIQ not doing so well, market did not like the news of their disposals and they fell from 46 to 32p over the past week. I continue to hold and will top up tomorrow as I have confidence in the medium term.

Typically UMECO rose after I sold out - never mind a profit is a profit.

Nice to to see GKP holding up so well at the £1.05 mark.

When are the next big economic figures from the US/EURO/UK due?

The market looks toppy to me?

This rise can't be sustained SURELY?