UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

Target 5600 I read earlier.
If the value of dollars and pounds goes down then the magic seesaw that is the stockmarket says company assets, miners especially and share prices must go up

I shall look at pound index later to see how it compares. Unfortunately there is confusion between trade weighted index and other types of measuring currency weakness

If dollar index has gone down 15% since the start of the year and the pound has appreciated 15% against the dollar since year start that means in real terms we've not actually gained anything but I'll check later anyhow.
Commodities being in dollars is confusing

This rise can't be sustained SURELY?

In conclusion yes it can but it depends on currency. Currency is a bigger market then stocks


Good thinking on WKP I agree, you got to take profits sometime if you want to keep buying into opportunities. I wish I had sold more in 2008 on the days when everyone was positive for some silly reason






Here is when I first read the endless rise up could happen. End of this post I'll put the latest chart and possible top to this move for you lot to consider in the same way.

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Markets destabilising from the 'air pocket' in volume at prices above here is one explanation why we might well spike upwards though it seems incorrect

SP500 @ 1123 roughly coincides with a long term negative trend line. Nothing certain of course







The 'air pocket' still exists upto SPY @ 1200 roughly which is another 8% rise from now

cloud_dog

kittie wrote: »

Are you averaging 35% per year cloud dog? If so, that is wonderful. Oh you did say in the first sentence. My mistake. Who would have an ifa on seeing those fantastic figures!! wd

If you are uncomfortable not cashing in then why not do the proportionate thing and cash in part ie the increase in value or a %

Kittie, 35% in the investment accounts but 15% average in the pension accounts.

I have been gradually reducing my stocks exposure and going to cash over the last two months in the investment accounts, am am currently about 40% invested.

I don't tend to trade the pension accounts very often (use UTs in HL SIPP), they are currently about 75% invested. I was just hypothesising if now(ish) might be a good time to sell and re-balance some of the exposure, for example CF Junior Oil and Neptune Greater Russia have done exceedingly well this year and I suppose I really should re-balance / re-distribute. I've also got holdings in bond funds which have done very well for bond funds but I'm now wondering if the shine has been pretty much exhausted in bonds.

uk_steve

ses6jwg wrote: »

Workspace had their results today.

Some decent news on rents and occupancy rates, but NAV reduced from 27p to 22p finished the day at 21.5p I think. I sold today, I've been in since 15p and can't see why it will trade above 22p if that is where the NAV sits.

Good long term prospects, I shall keep an eye on them.

yeah i agree it should fly back below 20p i be sitting and waiting to come back in myself;)

[Deleted User]

what age are you cloud dog?

I am asking re your risk/reward profile. Mine (my dh`s) is pretty conservative and will be different to yours as we are over 60 with no further earned income. If you are young enough and have the bottle, then hold for a while imo

why not try a pi chart with different coloured sectors. Security and weathering storms is important, even with a high risk profile. If I were younger, I would be working on a pretty solid fairly secure base on which to balance all the high risk stuff but I would still have high risk stuff if I needed to try and build up sufficient capital

cloud_dog

Kittie, I am in my (very) early forties (not that I'm age sensitive ). I've found an investment strategy which whilst volatile I am comfortable with and allows me to focus my research, hopefully gaining from this focussed approach.

Its not that I'm not a big believer in asset allocation etc, etc its just that I think, or am more fosussed, on being in and out of the market at appropriate times rather than re-assessing sector coverage etc. I'm not a day-trader dut do trade in nad out over the months.

I know my focussed (resource) approach is likely to change at some point in the future but for the moment will continue with the high risk / reward approach.

uk_steve

^^^^
40 somethingteen ;-)



i am 36teen and i am also high risk trader for my short period


i also do agree my approach will change as time goes by

saying that i seem to have a more stable aproach on shares in the last mth


good luck on your journey ;-)

cloud_dog

aye, good luck

I've enjoyed this thread as its allowed me to see others investment strategies, styles, methods, vehicles in an open and sharing way.

"Share and share alike" as me old nan used to say.

ses6jwg

uk_steve wrote: »

yeah i agree it should fly back below 20p i be sitting and waiting to come back in myself;)

With the Olympics coming in 2012 they are a good bet.

Excellent yield at about 7% too.

I just feel that for the past 2-3 months theyve been trading at a 30% discount to a NAV of 27p, now the NAV is 22p why should things be any different?

sabretoothtigger

ses6jwg wrote: »

When are the next big economic figures from the US/EURO/UK due?

Tuesday wrote:

INTERIMS
Big Yellow Group, British Land Co, Burberry Group, ICAP, Imaginatik, Intelek, Oxford Instruments, VT Group

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aviva

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Industrial Production (US) (14:15)
Producer Price Index (US) (13:30)
Trade Balance (EC) (10:00)

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Prices Index (09:30)
Retail Prices Index (09:30)

FINALS
Care UK, EasyJet

AGMS
Barratt Developments, Smiths Group

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Price Index (09:30)
Retail Price Index (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Henderson EuroTrust

Thats from digitallook. They do a weekly summary on the weekends but I cant find it now


Also http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?month=11&year=2009

+ 1.4% Retail sales USA is the big news today, better then forecast. 70% of usa gdp is service sector

http://useconomy.about.com/b/2006/12/12/services-sector-leading-gdp-growth-what-does-that-mean-for-you-and-the-us-economy.htm

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/glance.htm



Just the USA and it has graphs! :j - http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

tradetime

Resolution was indeed to the upside as expected, intraday we managed to get as high as 1113.6 just 8 points from entering my run off area @ 1121 - 1158. The 1121 level represents a 50% retrace of the entire move down from highs to March lows on the S&P.

This brings the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow to multi-month closing highs once again. Volume ticked up on the move, but not significantly. Nasdaq did not lead again today, which is a little disconcerting, though the Nasdaq as leader is way ahead of the other indices at this point so a little catchup may be in order. It does bear watching though as any roll over in the Nas would be a very bearish development.

The Dollar index got hit hard once again, and remains a good inverse indicator for equity markets, there may be signs that despite a few breaks below the 75 level, that the Dollar is in fact basing here, something to be watched also. I would point out this inverse relationship is something that exists currently, and is not a permanent phenomenon, however due to the carry trade in US$ I think resolution and decoupling would require an equities selloff on Dollar rally at least in the short term.

Market is quite extended here, I see your "Air Pocket" STT, not sure if I posted on here before regarding that, as your chart shows there is next to no volume (supply) in that area as we dropped so fast, and a move above 1158 would target that area 1228 - 1248 as an obvious target, just wonder if we have come too far now without a pullback to interest buyers at these levels. Seasonality suggests the market should rally into year end, of course this market has not respected any seasonality so far this year.

Trading should start to get patchy US wise from the holiday shortened week next week and forwards into Xmas, been a fascinating year.