UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tonygee_3

ses6jwg,Afren has gone up 800%,my personal tactics has always been to avoid anything that has done really well,when the selling starts these are hit hardest.
Look elsewhere and/or wait for AFR to fall.

tradetime

STT, your resistance held, but a very bullish session never the less. We managed to put in a close above the recent downtrend line. Tomorrow they may try and gap us clear of this area. A move above that congestion to the left around 1073 and we should arrive at the 1090 area pretty quickly, it seems with this market you no sooner get bearish, than you have to turn bullish again

turbobob

Yeah bulls firmly back in control. Good for me

Out of interest Tradetime I was looking at your chart and wondering if you use stochastic much? It doesn't seem to be a good overbought or oversold indicator. But I can see a divergence on the 2nd Nov (new low on the price chart not being matched by a new low on the stochastic) which seemed to be a turning point. Would that be one way you'd use it? Thanks

tradetime

turbobob wrote: »

Out of interest Tradetime I was looking at your chart and wondering if you use stochastic much? It doesn't seem to be a good overbought or oversold indicator. But I can see a divergence on the 2nd Nov (new low on the price chart not being matched by a new low on the stochastic) which seemed to be a turning point. Would that be one way you'd use it? Thanks

Hi tirbobob, it's an indicator I look at as part of pre-market analysis, along with others to help build a picture of where markets are and keep me abreast of what others may be thinking. To give some idea of their importance in my approach, they are the last section of my analysis. The chart structure and formation, ie price, to me is far more important, and takes precedence. I will note whether we are overbought, oversold, if there are divergences, and the direction in which the indicator is pointing, over the range of indicators. Overbought and oversold imho is a very over used concept, which I think many people apply much to much weight to, all indicators can stay pinned in overbought or oversold territory for quite some time, and if the price movement that preceded an o/b or o/s reading was particularly sharp, then indicators can correct simply by the the rate of the rise or decline lessening. These type of indicator (momentum oscillators) are good for range bound markets if you have accurately identified the range (back to price precedence) but they will give you a lot of false signals in a trending market.

P.S. Currently one of the best "indicators" at the moment is the US$ There is currently a very high degree of inverse correlation between the markets and the Dollar, the relationship will break at sometime, but that is the nature of markets, constantly evolving.

turbobob

Thanks for the detailed reply Tradetime. Its been very helpful

bendix

And then the US jobless data comes out and spooks the market.

What is wrong with these people? Aren't they sophisticated enough to know that unemployment lags any recovery?

Sheep! Sheep, I tells ya.

turbobob

Just a blip it seems :think: More than once I've seen the Dow spike close to opening before very quickly reversing. The rally in gold continues (in $ terms anyway) - its now close to $1100.

tradetime

bendix wrote: »

And then the US jobless data comes out and spooks the market.

What is wrong with these people? Aren't they sophisticated enough to know that unemployment lags any recovery?

Sheep! Sheep, I tells ya.

Short term momentum traders, and like as not some spooked retail investors.

tonygee_3

ses6jwg wrote: »

Afren will be looking to move to the main market in early December.

Hot sector - oil and gas exploration and production.

Operations focused in Africa.

Thinking about dumping Aminex and Empyrean Energy and piling in there -

Any thoughts?

Hope you took my 'advice' AFR down 15% EME was up 25%:cool:

ses6jwg

tonygee wrote: »

Hope you took my 'advice' AFR down 15% EME was up 25%:cool:

Keeping an eye on AFR

EME up but only to my buy price of 17.2p....

Sold my UMECO today which I bought a couple of months ago.

Bought at £2.27, collected the 6% dividend, sold just above my target at £3.02 for a nice little profit of £550 to be put into the bank :T

Current holdings:

AMINEX @ 9.01p
Empyrean Energy @ 17.2p
Gulf Keystone @ 95p
Uniq @ 20p
Workspace Group @ 15.5p

Now with £1700 on the side to reinvest but will hold fire for a bit.

Dont want to go into AFR whilst still holding AEX, EME and GKP as will be too weighted into oilers.

Considering topping up AEX and UNIQ (as it hit 46p and has found a floor at 38p)