Nationwide - up 0.9% MoM

JonnyBravo

chucknorris wrote: »

I suppose the silly (not all) bears only lose credability whereas the silly speculators lost real cash.

Do the silly bears have any credibility to lose? :rolleyes:

Equally this crash should mean the silly speculators have already lost all their cash. :cool:

Kenny4315

Graham_Devon wrote: »

LOL.

This is your month Kenny, and you can have your month.

I still stand by the 45-55% though. quote]

GD ... go and read the report, it is going on about what I concluded a while ago, that the 'real market' was never down 20% in the first place.

The average was skewed by lack of sales and forced sellers making up the bulk of this figure. Once sales volumes get close to the normal we'll be able to see the real fall, which I think is somewhere around the 12% to 14% mark, once the volume correction and forced sale factors are considered.

One thing for sure is that the correction is slower than it should be due to interest rates being low and not forcing the issue. So what we'll have is drops and increases, as volume, prices and the forced sale issues skew the market indicators. I still expect the indictor to reach 35% down but doubt that will really reflect what's on the market, as is currently the case if you go and look at some EA's.

JonnyBravo

Really2 wrote: »

Graham look at the nominal prices. What is the point of waiting for the inflation adjusted bottom ?

You could pay your mortgage off 5 years earlier.:eek:

Its up to you but that graph is misleading you of where the bottom will really be.

On your assumption of rising inflation yes, (FWIW I agree inflation will rise), but what about long term deflation or at least close to 0% inflation

Graham_Devon

StevieJ wrote: »

You mean when base rate was as at 13.875 :rotfl:

Well, the base rate then was an abnormality to cater for the problems they had at the time.

Is it co-incidence that we have an abnormality when we hit the red line again this time round, just interest rates at the other end of the scale?

When base rates were at 14%, people simply wouldn't have had 10's of thousands on credit cards. So it's a different era with a different set of circunstances. And the base rate means nothing to those trying to pay of debts, as all of those variable debt rates have jumped up, while the base rate has gone down.

So now, it's just different tensions.

Graham_Devon

JonnyBravo wrote: »

A man with 24k posts? Post no more? We'll see!

Be 400k by then! :o

chucknorris

JonnyBravo wrote: »

Do the silly bears have any credibility to lose? :rolleyes:

Equally this crash should mean the silly speculators have already lost all their cash. :cool:

Yes I know that's why I used the word 'lost' ie past tense. I agree though that people who believe in 70% falls have no credability to lose, they are probably equally inept at other things too, as they obviously cannot reason things out for themselves and will always be mislead by rogue information.

Really2

JonnyBravo wrote: »

On your assumption of rising inflation yes, (FWIW I agree imflation will rise), but what about long term deflation or at least close to 0% inflation

It would still be better to buy at the start of stagnation as the IR would be lower so you could pay the house of quicker:)

5 years at 0.5% IR would be a hell of a good start towards geting mortgage free.

Dan:_4

Where is Carolt today?, she couldn't wait for these figures to be released yesturday?

Dan:_4

ad9898 wrote: »

Although the banter is pretty good when we have this sort of thing happen, nobody is going to convince anyone on the other side of the debate, bears will point to 35k off peak and bulls will point to the green shoots of spring. To be honest it doesn't really matter that much to me, I think we are all in agreement that prices will not rise in the next 3 years, and if that is the case, my 3 bed detached bought outright goal will come true, and I will move on with my life.

The fear for me was prices going up continuously and me saving every month would have been for nothing, thankfully that trend stopped 18 months ago, and even if the falls stopped now, the stagnation in the market would see me through, so I have VI, just like everyone else, and no one is going to be 'swung' to swapping sides.

Once I've bought, the chances are I won't post here anymore, as the information taken from most of the posters on here will have done it's job (of which I am thankful for), what would be the point, once the Title Deeds are in my hands house prices will cease to be of relevance to me.

Top post ad, and spot on as usual.

JonnyBravo

Really2 wrote: »

It would still be better to buy at the start of stagnation as the IR would be lower so you could pay the house of quicker:)

5 years at 0.5% IR would be a hell of a good start towards geting mortgage free.

Show me where you can get 0.5% IR on a mortgage for a FTB