Nationwide - up 0.9% MoM

Dan:_4

ad44downey wrote: »

A statistical blip like the Halifax had a few months ago. Normal downward service will be resumed next month no doubt.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Just keep telling yourself that Downey

Dan:_4

ad44downey wrote: »

I don't know why you're so keen for prices to rise dan. It would just mean that you'd have to fork out more money when you purchase your next caravan.

For the last and final time - I DO NOT WANT HOUSE PRICES TO RISE.

Kenny4315

Dan: wrote: »

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Just keep telling yourself that Downey

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

They do say talking to yourself is the first sign of madness ..... :rotfl:

Dan:_4

mdb99jh wrote: »

I just wonder if we're about to enter the largest bulltrap in history.

At the moment, there is a feeling of "prices have dropped, interest rates are low, maybe it's time to buy?". As a result, we're seeing a little bit of a flattening out in the market.

However, there is a big player that hasn't come into effect yet: high inflation and soaring interest rates. These two things are entirely possible (and even likely IMHO) at some point in the next year or two. This would lead to big problems for a lot of over-borrowed home-owners who, at the moment, are coping quite easily. Up till now, the drop in prices has been a result of restricted credit to FTBs and sentiment, but what will happen when even bigger forces like 10% interest rates come into play? Just as the 90's crash was initiated by a recession, maybe phase II of this crash will be initiated by the big "downturn" which is yet to kick in properly.

Thoughts/comments?

You just sound desperate now.

chucknorris

I always thought prices would fall 35-40%, but I am beginning to wonder now, I think the fall frm peak might only be 30-35% as I think we will be at the bottom in about a year followed by a couple of years of stagnation

Really2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

yes...but I still don't really get you. you said (I think?) the reason a 20% fall in 09 was unlikely because the monthly falls would have to be bigger than the monthly 08 falls? i figured falls of <2% per month throughout the year would still result in a 20% yoy fall and that it wouldn't need greater than 3%ers

fwiw i'm not saying it will hit 20% yoy at end of 2009. i think somewhere between 10 and 15 imo. same again in 2010

OK can we stop the advocatin rises bit wookster it is not what I am saying.

What I am sayin is

Prices have reamined fairly stagnent for the first 1/4 of this year.

To get to 20% falls in the next 9 months is fairl unlikely as they will now have to be verry heavy falls (especial for a nominal fall greater than last year)

The blips recently do not help massive yoy falls. IMHO

JonnyBravo

Wookster wrote: »

What is going to support property prices at their current levels, above the long term average?

I thought someone produced a graph the other day showing property prices are now at the long term average?

Yeah here we go....




Now naturally we are assuming there is going to be an undershoot, which I think will happen but your post about "support property prices at their current levels, above the long term average" would seem to be only marginally true by this measure at best.

(Yes I'm aware there are other measures showing us still to be above long term (eg av earnings to av house price ratio).... but it's getting close now isn't it??)

Kenny4315

julieq wrote: »

Any tips for the Grand National, Ash?

A horse might win ...... but there will be a least 57% of fallers ... any that fall will not rise again until at least 2030, and those that do cross the line will be ridden rough shod by some moronic 22 year currently renting the horse but hoping to buy it with a 125% deposit .... those that do fall may be back in the stables they were at in 2007 by 2030 but will owe the banks tons of oats ..... :money:

whathavewedone

It is also vested interest to hope that you can buy a house for 50% less as Mizbizz does.

Why is it only the vested interests of homeowners that count on this board? You could have no mortgage or a very tiny one and still be accused of having a vested interest.

Whereas you can admit that you have a naked vested interest in the opoosite direction, then muse away that the market has another 30/40/50% to fall and you will be taken deadly seriously.

Moving away from Mizzbiz's personal situation and anyone else looking to buy a cheap house, massive further house price falls are not good for the economy as a whole. Seriously do you want us to be in recession forever, or just as long as it takes for all of you selfish bstards to buy a house? The second you get one you'll be eagerly awaiting news that it's gone up - not that you'll admit that now but I can't believe such an avaricious bunch of people would not be looking to make money.

As for inflation, well a lot of people are on fixed rates. Back in the Autumn it looked as though we were in for high inflation so a lot of people (including me) fixed. Those that aren't on fixed rates are hopefully overpaying and/saving money to get them through the difficult times that may lie ahead. Certainly there's been a lot of news articles about people paying down debt etc. If everyone was on trackers and paying a a couple of hundred quid a month to their mortgage and not using the money to overpay/save then you'd expect them to be spending but they clearly aren't.

I don't personally think we will have 10% interest rates in a year anyway. From a personal point of view it would be good as I'd be getting good interest on my savings and rates would probably be going back down by the time I came off my fixed rate. I can't see it happening that quickly though.

bendix

Debates like this are futile. Those owners or BTLrs with a vested interest to prove the worst is over desperately cling to every small scrap of positive news or tick upwards; those keen to get on the ladder celebrate the bad news.

There can never be any objectivity in a discussion like this.

Declaration of interest: I own property overseas. I don't own in the UK and have no intention of buying. Even were prices to fall 50%, the value for money of UK property is appalling.