Nationwide - up 0.9% MoM

chucknorris

bendix wrote: »

Debates like this are futile. Those owners or BTLrs with a vested interest to prove the worst is over desperately cling to every small scrap of positive news or tick upwards; those keen to get on the ladder celebrate the bad news.

There can never be any objectivity in a discussion like this.

Declaration of interest: I own property overseas. I don't own in the UK and have no intention of buying. Even were prices to fall 50%, the value for money of UK property is appalling.

What I tend to find is those hoping for falls paste links to crazy articles that suggest falls of 70%, but they don't sit back and analyse the market and ask themselves, is this likely? In fact they just leap in and post the link, I would be extremely embarressed showing myself up to be so gullible.

The same can also be said for those silly house price speculators (rather than long term investors) that believed false valuations, rental yields and that house prices would always rise. The market is cyclical and although it will always rise in the long run (fluctuating around the rate of inflation because of affordability limitations). But it will never rise continually at the rate it does during a boom, there will always be a period of correction after a boom that over time seriously reduces the average rise.

I suppose the silly (not all) bears only lose credability whereas the silly speculators lost real cash.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

It's that image that tells us all we need to know.

Look at the bull trap at the same point on the red line in 1991ish. We've just reached exactly the same point.
.

They were fairly stagnant nominally. That is inflation adjustment you see. Some one posted the nominal prices earlier.
I would be looking at them not the graph as your future purchase could be at the wrong time.

Here it is thanks mizzbit.
http://www.mortgageguideuk.co.uk/housing/uk-house-price-index.html

StevieJ

Graham_Devon wrote: »

It's that image that tells us all we need to know.

Look at the bull trap at the same point on the red line in 1991ish. We've just reached exactly the same point.

You mean when base rate was as at 13.875 :rotfl:

JonnyBravo

Graham_Devon wrote: »

It's that image that tells us all we need to know.

Look at the bull trap at the same point on the red line in 1991ish. We've just reached exactly the same point.

However, I didn't expect a rise! So I'm happy to say my prediction of -0.8% this was wrong! (come on Halifax, do me proud! )

However, we SHOULD see this, really. When you think about the amount of money pumped into the economy, a lot of it to do this, then I guess it's right, especially with the time of the year, that this should happen.

Agree with all of your post... except I did expect rises at some point.

I think the trend will continue down for a while yet. Just because I question the uber-bearish attitude and try to see both sides doesn't mean I dont think there will be drops. It's simply me trying to be as dispassionate as possible.

Graham_Devon

Kenny4315 wrote: »

GD ........ that 50% to 70% drop that you predicted a few weeks ago, is looking a bit unlikely ... don't you think .... ??? Even the 45% to 55% predicted the other day is looking maybe a tad to much ..... don't you think ?

LOL.

This is your month Kenny, and you can have your month.

I still stand by the 45-55% though. Simply because I have been following the graph posted above for every prediction given. The way it has panned out, is exactly the way it panned out in the 90's. We have the same blip at exactly the same time. It shows the same blips on the way up at the same time.

All the other falls show a near 40% fall after peak, that that graph allows us to see. The shear size of this recession though, and the amount of personal debt strangling people make me believe it will go further than the last two falls.

The problem is, by the time my 45% gets here, life will have moved on, we won't be posting here (hopefully!). It should be in about 5 years time!

Like I have said all along, it's very very easy to be wrong. Brown could simply announce tommorow a new pacakge which simply pushes prices back up again, and the meddling with this recession seems to have beat all the meddling with the last 2. So maybe following the graph, in this age, isn't the best thing and maybe you are right. But who knows

I know myself, and everyone I work with, still, could not afford a house today on their wages. Many of us on circa 30k a year. THAT is what I am going on. But I could be blinded by prices in my area. That's around 40 people, I work with out of about 50, who couldnt raise a mortgage on an average (and I mean starter home here really) house without help from relatives, inheritances, good fortune etc.

If it got to 45%, around 40 out of the 50 people would be able to afford to live and buy a home.

JonnyBravo

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The problem is, by the time my 45% gets here, life will have moved on, we won't be posting here (hopefully!). It should be in about 5 years time!

A man with 24k posts? Post no more? We'll see!

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

LOL.

This is your month Kenny, and you can have your month.

I still stand by the 45-55% though. won't be posting here (hopefully!). It should be in about 5 years time!

Graham look at the nominal prices. What is the point of waiting for the inflation adjusted bottom ?

You could pay your mortgage off 5 years earlier.:eek:

Its up to you but that graph is misleading you of where the bottom will really be.

mitchaa

I expect a further 5-10% and quite a few more of these up and down months. I have to say, all those predictions of 50%+ that most of you bears are dreaming about, are just not going to happen, or should i say look very remote. Just look at the US housing market, down only 29% in 3yrs.

The next 10% may take us 2yrs to hit if going by the US figures. Is it really worth staying in rental that long when you factor in both sets of costs. (Mortgage vs rental)

I'd seriously be doing some maths if i were a bear, even factoring a further 10% falls into my calculations (£15,000) over the space of the next year i'd be spending that alone in rental so no worse or better off, especially considering interest rates are very likely to rocket soon. No point in a cheaper house if you have to pay an extortionate interest rate to match.

Gets you thinking though. I wonder how Halifax report the market.

chucknorris

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The problem is, by the time my 45% gets here, life will have moved on, we won't be posting here (hopefully!). It should be in about 5 years time!

I for one will still be here in 10 years (and beyond) unless a better website appears (which I think is unlikley). It's important to keep in touch with what's going on and a forum like this is ONE of a few good ways of doing that

ad9898_3

Although the banter is pretty good when we have this sort of thing happen, nobody is going to convince anyone on the other side of the debate, bears will point to 35k off peak and bulls will point to the green shoots of spring. To be honest it doesn't really matter that much to me, I think we are all in agreement that prices will not rise in the next 3 years, and if that is the case, my 3 bed detached bought outright goal will come true, and I will move on with my life.

The fear for me was prices going up continuously and me saving every month would have been for nothing, thankfully that trend stopped 18 months ago, and even if the falls stopped now, the stagnation in the market would see me through, so I have VI, just like everyone else, and no one is going to be 'swung' to swapping sides.

Once I've bought, the chances are I won't post here anymore, as the information taken from most of the posters on here will have done it's job (of which I am thankful for), what would be the point, once the Title Deeds are in my hands house prices will cease to be of relevance to me.