Nationwide - up 0.9% MoM

JonnyBravo

bendix wrote: »

Debates like this are futile. Those owners or BTLrs with a vested interest to prove the worst is over desperately cling to every small scrap of positive news or tick upwards; those keen to get on the ladder celebrate the bad news.

There can never be any objectivity in a discussion like this.

Who said I want objectivity?? I'm more than aware I'm biased. I can make my own mind up on this and many other matters. Are the only conversations you have objective?? Of course not. Humans have bias on all kinds of subjects not just house prices.

Really2

bendix wrote: »

Debates like this are futile. Those owners or BTLrs with a vested interest to prove the worst is over desperately cling to every small scrap of positive news or tick upwards; those keen to get on the ladder celebrate the bad news.

There can never be any objectivity in a discussion like this.

Declaration of interest: I own property overseas. I don't own in the UK and have no intention of buying. Even were prices to fall 50%, the value for money of UK property is appalling.

I purchased a property in Aug 2008 at 27% below April 08 prices.

I want to confirm that was the correct decision (don't we all want confirmation we make the right choices)

But more than anything else I want people to stop losing their jobs and the country going down the pan.:(

Kenny4315

Dan: wrote: »

For the last and final time - I DO NOT WANT HOUSE PRICES TO RISE.

I'd still like further falls so that I can fill my trolley .... I'd be happy with 35% down because I can see a quick correction, and some easy money for doing not much..... :beer:

But given I already have property then I'm not too fussed if if rises I'll just have less properties worth more individually.

Kenny4315

Really2 wrote: »

I purchased a property in Aug 2008 at 27% below April 08 prices.

Sweet deal, good on yer mate .... :beer:

Wookster

JonnyBravo wrote: »

Now naturally we are assuming there is going to be an undershoot, which I think will happen but your post about "support property prices at their current levels, above the long term average" would seem to be only marginally true by this measure at best.

Is it?

Average house price is £149,709 and average wages are ~£27,000 (£521*52: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=285)

This gives a multiple of 5.5X (more so if average wages have dropped since the article on the statistics website was published in November 2008).

The long term average is about 3.5X. This would imply that we still have some (considerable) way to fall to reach the long term average.

StevieJ

“Spring brought a surprise bounce to house prices in March.

Where is that mewbie thread about the spring bounce

Graham_Devon

JonnyBravo wrote: »

I thought someone produced a graph the other day showing property prices are now at the long term average?

Yeah here we go....




Now naturally we are assuming there is going to be an undershoot, which I think will happen but your post about "support property prices at their current levels, above the long term average" would seem to be only marginally true by this measure at best.

(Yes I'm aware there are other measures showing us still to be above long term (eg av earnings to av house price ratio).... but it's getting close now isn't it??)

It's that image that tells us all we need to know.

Look at the bull trap at the same point on the red line in 1991ish. We've just reached exactly the same point.

However, I didn't expect a rise! So I'm happy to say my prediction of -0.8% this was wrong! (come on Halifax, do me proud! )

However, we SHOULD see this, really. When you think about the amount of money pumped into the economy, a lot of it to do this, then I guess it's right, especially with the time of the year, that this should happen.

Kenny4315

GD ........ that 50% to 70% drop that you predicted a few weeks ago, is looking a bit unlikely ... don't you think .... ??? Even the 45% to 55% predicted the other day is looking maybe a tad to much ..... don't you think ?

What's your revised prediction today ? Could this be an increased vloume effect correcting the skew that I've been banging on about ?

Really2

Wookster wrote: »

Is it?

Average house price is £149,709 and average wages are ~£27,000 (£521*52: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=285)

This gives a multiple of 5.5X (more so if average wages have dropped since the article on the statistics website was published in November 2008).

The long term average is about 3.5X. This would imply that we still have some (considerable) way to fall to reach the long term average.

Median earner say first house 1 or two bed flat around £100K i make that around 3.5X after deposit.

I thought the average house (not property) was purchased on a wage of £38K+

JonnyBravo

Wookster wrote: »

Is it?

Average house price is £149,709 and average wages are ~£27,000 (£521*52: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=285)

This gives a multiple of 5.5X (more so if average wages have dropped since the article on the statistics website was published in November 2008).

The long term average is about 3.5X. This would imply that we still have some (considerable) way to fall to reach the long term average.

Did you not read the end of my post or did that give you the idea?
Typical blinkered inability to discuss the variety of measures and how they all vary slightly.

Whatever.