Bulls Vs Bears

Martinslovechild

Wookster wrote: »

I've been wandering (sic) for a while now how people can possibly be optimistic in the face of ever more gloomy news.

The reasons I think we're in for a very serious time over the next 5+ years are:

1. Massively over-inflated house prices which are simply far in excess of long term averages

This is simply not an issue if you already own a property since your property is currently falling in price at generally the same rate as everybody else's. Those people affected most by above-trend property prices are:-

• Individuals not currently on the property ladder
• Individuals wishing to downsize
• Buy-To-Letters who are over-exposed in debt terms

Wookster wrote: »

2. Enormously high levels of personal & corporate debt. Repayment/ inflating away this would be extremely destructive.

I personally feel that the whole 'Fred Goodwin RBS Pension' story merely blurs the real picture. Should we be worrying whether one man receives a £600,000 pension when we have a massive public sector pension burden which dwarfs the amount Fred receives?

Wookster wrote: »

3. Accelerating levels of public debt

Very dangerous if not properly controlled & managed. It's fair to say that this hasn't been properly controlled or managed in quite a while. I've discussed Gordon Brown's role as Chancellor with many people over the years and decided that had he done nothing at all between the period 1997-2007 then it would have made precisely no difference to the economy because the global economy was stuck in a low-inflationary environment, certainly helped by China, but probably Gordon's biggest mistake was in assuming that this would continue.

There are certainly enough economists & analysts out there who would have told him otherwise as far back as 2000 (often referred to incorrectly as 'pessimists' or 'doom-mongers'), however it seems he chose to listen instead to newspaper reporters who wrote about the 'comodities supercycle', 'the detachment of China from the world economy' and worryingly 'the economic rise of Africa'.

Wookster wrote: »

4. Perhaps most worryingly, the enormous global trade imbalances (trade surpluses & deficits) that need to be rebalanced

It's interesting how people have been happy to make their way to Primark to purchase clothes at knock-down prices and yet are concerned about trade imbalances. After all, the rise & rise of LCD TV and Digital Cameras over the past 10 years has helped China create jobs for millions of workers. People rarely ask 'at what cost?'.

Wookster wrote: »

5. The energy/climate crisis (end of cheap energy) and the world's unpreparedness

We live in a consumable society. People naively assume that a 'green' policy is simply an excuse for extra taxation - that governments are picking on them for their choice of vehicle, discarding too much litter or leaving the TV on standby. But they have a right to question a government who tells us these things and then does precisely the opposite. Look at the current situation with banks - on one hand they want banks to 'lend more to people and small businesses' - on the other hand they want banks to 'shore up their capital reserves' - they can't have it both ways.

Wookster wrote: »

What do you have to be positive about?

On a personal note, I'm positive about many things. My health. My family & friends. After that, everything else is not really that important.

Don't get me wrong - I continually aim higher for myself. However, I realised a long time ago that happiness doesn't come from a massive house, sports car or the latest LCD TV. It comes from inside and from helping others.

vivatifosi

StevieJ wrote: »

Grateful if you could point out where I even suggest this,

but if we restrict the comments in terms of who is allowed to post

I am merely attempting to understand another posters point of view when comparing to past experiences.

Sure....

You posted...

'You come from a country that has a nasty govt, a massive aids (and other diseases) problem and severe economic woes, It is like someone moving from Sarajevo or Beirut at the height of their conflicts and complaining about the gun crime on the London streets'.

It makes it sound - to me - as though someone moving from Zimbabwe, Sarajevo, Beirut or whatever may not have as valid an opinion on the economy here due to where they've come from. As I said (and apologise if this doesn't come across but I've already pasted two quotes in here and if I try to post my own as well my aged computer will fall over), we should not restrict the posts to those who come from here. While this is not what you said, your post did come across as sounding as comments from people from those economies are less worthwhile and therefore should be taken less seriously. When I spoke specifically about restricting views, I was talking more about how posts can escalate - and that's how we end up with a BNP mentality. I also took pains to point out that I didn't see what you'd written as racist - because you've never struck me as one.

As racism is something I've ended up on the receiving end of in the past as I'm not a pure Brit, its something I like to avoid at all costs.

Hope that clarifies my POV.

I have to go to work now so sorry if people post responses - I can't write back or I'll lose my income!

StevieJ

I know one thing, if Brown had started interferring with the management of the banks a good while ago (eg regulating LTV's and how much people could borrow), the Tories and general business would have been on his back, accusing him of being the same old Labour and not a friend of the free economy

Conrad

Wookster, you imply there is little to be positive about, but maybe you might consider the fact 1932 was the best year to buy the DOW last century.
So again it comes back to this thang about seeing beyond the obvious. Doom wallowing is a cop out - too simplistc

Martinslovechild

StevieJ wrote: »

I know one thing, if Brown had started interferring with the management of the banks a good while ago (eg regulating LTV's and how much people could borrow), the Tories and general business would have been on his back, accusing him of being the same old Labour and not a friend of the free economy

Yes, I agree.

I've often wondered how much Labour has received in 'political donations' over the years from banks, credit card companies & house builders.

One can become very cynical indeed.

StevieJ

vivatifosi wrote: »

Sure....

You posted...

'You come from a country that has a nasty govt, a massive aids (and other diseases) problem and severe economic woes, It is like someone moving from Sarajevo or Beirut at the height of their conflicts and complaining about the gun crime on the London streets'.

It makes it sound - to me - as though someone moving from Zimbabwe, Sarajevo, Beirut or whatever may not have as valid an opinion on the economy here due to where they've come from. As I said (and apologise if this doesn't come across but I've already pasted two quotes in here and if I try to post my own as well my aged computer will fall over), we should not restrict the posts to those who come from here. While this is not what you said, your post did come across as sounding as comments from people from those economies are less worthwhile and therefore should be taken less seriously. When I spoke specifically about restricting views, I was talking more about how posts can escalate - and that's how we end up with a BNP mentality. I also took pains to point out that I didn't see what you'd written as racist - because you've never struck me as one.

As racism is something I've ended up on the receiving end of in the past as I'm not a pure Brit, its something I like to avoid at all costs.

Hope that clarifies my POV.

I have to go to work now so sorry if people post responses - I can't write back or I'll lose my income!

Nope, does not clarify at all, I was merely comparing the risk profiles of the different places and the fact that some people will complain about anything (irrespective of race). In fact the person moving from Beirut to London (or indeed Zimbabwe) could have been British as no race was mentioned and we don't actually know what race Wookie is only that he has come from Zimbabwe.

Conrad

vivatifosi wrote: »

As racism is something I've ended up on the receiving end of in the past as I'm not a pure Brit, its something I like to avoid at all costs.

Hope that clarifies my POV.

Youre over sensitivity is getting in the way of youre ability to decipher. What a shame - this is starting to drag us all down in fear.

The offending post wasn't rasist. If it happened that Zimbawea was a white nation his post would not need altering - skin colour has no foothold in his post.

Wookster

Conrad wrote: »

Wookster, you imply there is little to be positive about, but maybe you might consider the fact 1932 was the best year to buy the DOW last century.
So again it comes back to this thang about seeing beyond the obvious. Doom wallowing is a cop out - too simplistc

Did you read my post above? Buy low, sell high?

Not exactly simplistic is it?

Martinslovechild

Folks, can we leave the 'racist' issue to one side please - it's moving the focus away from the real discussion.

Thanks.

Wookster

Conrad wrote: »

Youre over sensitivity is getting in the way of youre ability to decipher. What a shame - this is starting to drag us all down in fear.

There is nothing overly sensitive about Viva's post.

Stevie is clutching at strawmen and he's been busted. Pure and simple.