What has this downturn taught you (if anything)?

SouthCoast

Thanks for the thanks NDG.

Brighton property bubbles have always been driven by London.:D

Ingsy

I've learned that things go in cycles, and by the time the next crash comes I want to be mortgage free.

I've learned that plans are quite pointless. My new wife & my five year plan had us moivng up from a house to a flat at the end of this year / early next to before we started a family. Now, due to little (or probably -ve) equity in our property, that won't happen. Hence the wanting to be mortgage free.

I've learned that I'm glad I was brought up to not rely on loans. My student loan and our mortgage are the only loans we have as a family.

I've learned that hindisght is a wonderful thing. I've we knew now what we did 18 months ago when beginning to plan our wedding we may not have spent quite as much We've got no debt from it, but not much savings leftover...

fc123

SouthCoast wrote: »

History repeats itself.

Brighton has a very long history of property bubbles.

Prepare for the worst.

The original plan called for two hundred and fifty houses. Financial constraints, however, necessitated the elimination of two of the squares as originally conceived. Arundel Terrace, Chichester Terrace, Lewes Crescent and Sussex Square were included in the final estate plan. They consisted of 106 houses. In 1823, Kemp approached Thomas Cubitt to commence building works. Houses sold slowly. Kemp had to convey ten thousand pounds of land to Cubitt to cover his debts. By 1828, eleven houses had been occupied; by 1834, occupancy numbered thirty six. In 1837, Thomas Kemp was forced to flee the country to escape his creditors. His grand project, however, continued under the aegis of Cubitt and the Fifth Earl of Bristol.

I remember reading an Argus (worst paper ever ) article about that. I alway wondered why the backs of the buildings were such a mish mash too....he only built the front and the purchaser built onto it.

We rented a basement flat on Arundel Terrace.....worst place (incl SE London Nil by Mouth flat) I have ever lived in.....and pricey too.


We are preparing for the worst...but no-one local seems to share my feelings. I can see and feel the bubble popping every day (and over the past 14 months).
Regular customers, mainly self employed, chatting about how dire their businesses are.....some have already fallen.

We have set a deadline date and will try and do things the conventional way.

When that date arrives, we will be ready to jump into the unknown.......but I am researching it at the mo.

Worse, I had to turn down a massive opportunity (earnings/career wise) recently as I cannot commit the man hours......too many are being spent propping up a dead horse.....however, they said will wait.


The bit that's really winding me up is the way all the landlords and local surveyors etc are desperately trying to prop up the whole bubble (that is the basis of their living) by pushing people like us, who are the beginning of their food chain, into making decisions that wouldn't necessarily, be in their best interest longterm.

I then wonder if I am the crazy person as I am trading in two ways at the mo and can feel how the future of retail is going to pan out over the coming 5 years (relating to niche markets).........but no-one else in Real Life shopping Land seems to get it.

bubblesmoney

fc123 wrote: »

The bit I have found the hardest has been the way 'sensible' plans suddenly become nul and void through events that had absolutely nothing to do with how you conduct your own life.


We have spent January doing accounts etc and really crunching figures.

On the shop T/O chart, you can see clearly when NR went down, then following year, Lehmans followed by HBOS...and T/O halved (from 07 figs) overnight.


Now, we have to decide which fork to take next, but can only base the decision on what we know today.....and it could all change in 6 months through another random event, unconnected to our tiny lives, and the decision made could turn out to be the wrong one afterall.

I am really struggling with the 'not being able to plan' bit.

I am currently researching absolute worst case scenario concerning our shop lease.......and can we cope with the fallout? If we did, it would be the best thing ever as it will be like going one step back to then go 2 steps forward........but only based on what is happening today (not 6 months time).

whats a T/O chart, i guess something to do with profits.

i dont understand this leasing business for shops. isnt it risky just banking on the lease every year. you build your business and clients and then can have the rug pulled under your feet if rent is much higher come renewal time or if not renewed. business will need to relocate often. isnt it better to buy a small shop on a longterm mortgage etc even if this means less money for stock. atleast that way you can be based in a single place for good and really concentrate on growing your business rather than pushing paper every year trying to get the lease renewed etc. dont know how the lease thing works, sounds risky for any business.

Out,_Vile_Jelly

I've learnt that someone, somewhere is employed to come up with the little graphic logos to assist the viewer when watching the news. Aaargh- look how downy the downturn is- one of the letters is a big red arrow pointing DOWN!

It's like nobody ever watched The Day Today.

fc123

bubblesmoney wrote: »

whats a T/O chart, i guess something to do with profits.

i dont understand this leasing business for shops. isnt it risky just banking on the lease every year. you build your business and clients and then can have the rug pulled under your feet if rent is much higher come renewal time or if not renewed. business will need to relocate often. isnt it better to buy a small shop on a longterm mortgage etc even if this means less money for stock. atleast that way you can be based in a single place for good and really concentrate on growing your business rather than pushing paper every year trying to get the lease renewed etc. dont know how the lease thing works, sounds risky for any business.

Buying a commercial freehold is the best way sometimes but renting on a lease tends to be more common as freeholds in good locations are extremely rare.

At the time of taking our lease, their were no freeholds in the area we chose to set up in plus, in 1997/98, we couldn't get a commercial mortgage (used to need 50% deposit) on a property priced @ 700k roughly anyway.

Niche traders I know with freeholds are ticking over OK (assuming they bought a few years back) and they pay a lot less business rates too.

If I ever took on another premises, I would only do freehold now, but then I have been trading 22 years and may have a better chance of being able to afford to do it that way.

This recession is going to see the whole lease set up alter in a big way.

The new business rates law is a problem too, as, I have know people to walk out of a lease, the landlord decide NOT to bust them, as he just wants to get another tenant in ASAP. The business rates weren't payable on vacant units.
Now they are, so LL isn't going to take the premises back, as, after 3 months vacant relief, they become due again....so the council bankrupt the tenant instead for business rates anyway.

Trouble is, things take time to change and the Govt. seem to have very little understanding of how small business really works.

ETA T/O is turnover

iB1

I've learnt quite a few things. Apologies in advance - this might turn into a ramble/rant

* Always save for a rainy day, even if times are good
* Opening a 10% Halifax Regular Saver last year was one of the best financial decisions I ever made
* The media will always over-hype and distort everything they report on
* The government really don't have a clue what they're doing
* Make sure you're a bank or a car manufacturer as then you're "too big to fail" and you'll get a few £billion in handout money
* As bad as it always seems, there are people in other countries who are much worse off than us, recession or no recession

swampduck

payingfornowt wrote: »

Three things for me really.
We have a world class welfare state, you should not starve to death or die of exposure.

Rubbish!! Personal experience has shown me that our welfare state helps those who contribute nothing and kicks its own contributors in the teeth!!

Swampy

fc123

Could we not turn this into another ''chavscum benefits sitting on sofa doing FA'' thread.....please? There are some better ones, if you search the forum, to post the above views.

[Deleted User]

I learnt something new everytime we went through a recession. I am one of the older ones so have been there and got several t shirts. I understand people`s worries and the big difference today is the debt factor

number one is to get a savings safety cushion and not to believe the people who say to have debts is best, that is utter rubbish

number two is to get as much as you can into paying off the mortgage in the good times

number three is never to upsize to too big a house. Cosy is best in a recession

At the moment we are riding things out with a very well stocked store cupbard in a well insulated house. Outgoings are minimal and no holidays booked ahead or taken this last 12 months. We are cosy and safe but sad for what is happening and oh so sad for people who are not coping.