Some People Still Think This Will Be All Over In A Few Years!!!

the_ash_and_the_oak

Really2 wrote: »

But what about the fact population is increasing? They are not just going to disapear when they retire, Also Imigration could play a big role do you not think if we have a shortage of 20-30 somthings?

Its interesting, most western nations have the same situation. An increasing population overall but ageing demographics (the actual reason for immigration imo - to replace the youth that are not produced by existing families). I think one major reason for increasing population is people living much longer. retirement length since the 60s seems to have gone up exponentially. this strikes me as very expensive

Really2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Its interesting, most western nations have the same situation. An increasing population overall but ageing demographics (the actual reason for immigration imo - to replace the youth that are not produced by existing families). I think one major reason for increasing population is people living much longer. retirement length since the 60s seems to have gone up exponentially. this strikes me as very expensive

Wecome to working up to 70 if you are below 40 now. I think it's the only way now.

dopester

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Once bubble territory has been entered, prices will drop below that significantly, even if they continue to rise for years in the meantime.

Woody, the shocking thing is just how extreme bubbles can get.

Cmonnnnn house prices near trebling in 10 years.

The manic phase of the boom lasts for several years. Properties come to sell at absurd prices on the expectation that they will appreciate to still more absurd prices. And they do. They defy gravity, moving from one lofty high to another, month after month, year after year, long enough to lure otherwise prudent people in to mortgaging their gains to reinvest in the inflated assets on margin.

Before the market can top, near enough everyone who could conceivably be drawn in must have already become a buyer. And debt levels supporting the asset prices must be many times higher than any that could conceivably be serviced out of the cash flow yielded by the investments themselves.

Then comes the bust. Just as everyone has come to count on the idea that lofty asset values are permanent, there is a crash.

It is fascinating how a wide public viewpoint can get so distorted. People.. really thinking the value and crazy increases in house prices from 1997 onwards had solid foundation in anything.

I was reading a terrible Telegraph article in December about Germany leading up to WW2, and as terrible as it was, can sort of understand just how a generation of people can get whipped along in to a crazy belief-system.

Actually that reminds me.

An existing paradigm is seldom dispelled by evidence alone. As Keith Thomas has written,"Such systems of belief possess a resilience which makes them virtually immune to external argument."

A people whose culture grossly misinterprets certain facts will not necessarily reason their way to a more encompassing worldview until forced to do so by the brunt of economic necessity or military defeat. Reason does not alter values.

Conrad

geoffky wrote: »

i am a well respected member of my local community .

I wouldn't Bank on that.
There are people with this attitude in my local community, but behind thier backs the rest of us consider these people pompous, attention seeking, busy bodies, believe me. One such person was deliberately excluded from the Xmas pub girlie night out because she was considered to 'take over' every conversation, so wrapped up in herself that she is. Ironically she imagines she comes accross as confident, a leader and interesting, ha ha:rotfl:

Conrad

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Also as to the 'too-early' predictions noted upthread, I think there is a large difference between someone predicting in 2005 that a crash would occur, and someone 'seeing' the beginnings of a crash at that time.

I sold my 4 buy 2 lets (don't fret, I didn't make much) in 06/07, just because I had this knot in my belly telling me a crash was on the cards. After selling, they kept rising so I felt a bit of a prat, and got some comments as such.
On one new build I took a £37000 loss, but for me it was a 'stop loss' strategy, but I came so close several times to withdrawing from the sale as every media preoprty guru and bar room expert preached the property riches mantra.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Conrad wrote: »

I sold my 4 buy 2 lets (don't fret, I didn't make much) in 06/07, just because I had this knot in my belly telling me a crash was on the cards. After selling, they kept rising so I felt a bit of a prat, and got some comments as such.
On one new build I took a £37000 loss, but for me it was a 'stop loss' strategy, but I came so close several times to withdrawing from the sale as every media preoprty guru and bar room expert preached the property riches mantra.

Yes my grandparents were not always sure they had done the right thing after they sold but it made day-to-day living a lot cheaper for them and overall it looks like the right decision. I think sometimes when you have a bunch of chips on the table its time to scoop them all up and leave the casino.

geoffky

fitpig wrote: »

Geoff knows F all! He hasn't even got a flaming job - let alone his own place. He's just bitter and hates everyone who has more than him - which means he hates EVERYONE. I've heard he's so miserable and horrible in real life that people avoid him like the plague, which is why his only buddy is tin ternet.

geoff does not need a job because he is very wealthy and retired when he was 40 with a 7 figure sum in the bank..you fool...:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Really2

geoffky wrote: »

geoff does not need a job because he is very wealthy and retired when he was 40 with a 7 figure sum in the bank..you fool...:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Hi Geoff
In all seriousness
What did you do to get from 80's repo to 2000 millionair.

Not a wind up I love a rags to riches story (still woking on mine:))

ess0two

geoffky wrote: »

geoff does not need a job because he is very wealthy and retired when he was 40 with a 7 figure sum in the bank..you fool...:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Whats that smell..................ah bull crap.

carolt

Kenny4315 wrote: »

The two are the same, if house prices keep tumbling then the economy will do the same. Mr Clown & Hs Darling put this on the agenda as never before seen when he tried to beat the economic cycle via consumer borrowing.

When we get down to a 35% drop it will wipe out millions of home owners and the knock on effect will be a disaster.

Luckily we have some NICE BTLers waiting in the wings for a drop of around 35% with some cash tucked under the mattress, to pull Mr Clown & Hs Darling, out of the mire and get housing moving. If it were not for all us community minded individuals investing in the UK, then the ship would sink later on in the year and they'd be F all Mr Clown & Hs Darling could do, look at his miserable efforts at present, he's only got 1.5% left and debt is of epic proportions.

Funny, I believe absolutely the opposite.

The sooner house prices fall to realistic levels re affordability, the sooner (a) the housing market will get going again, thus leading to a return to all the home-moving jobs eg construction, diy, homewares, EA's etc etc, and so kicking off the rest of the economy, and (b) the banks can finally fairly value their assets, thus enabling interbank lending to restart normally without taxpayer assistance ie the end of the 'credit crunch'..

I think all the delaying measures to prop up house prices just prolong the agony and ensure far more people will suffer.

Better a short sharp shock, and then back to normality, than a long, drawn-out recession/depression on the back of house prices.