Some People Still Think This Will Be All Over In A Few Years!!!

whathavewedone

Stevetodd I completely agree with you. I keep noticing posts where people are speculating on house prices going down forevermore because this recession is "different". I can't help but see a correllation between these views and those of people during the boom who said that because things were "different" property prices would only ever go up and we would never have a house price crash again.

Why can't we trust history? It just shows that lessons will never be learned which makes it even more inevitable that after this recession there will be another boom and another bust. And yes, I wouldn't be at all surprised if people think that the conditions of the next one are worse than this one because as someone else side we fear the future but tend to remember the past fondly.

Something else that annoys me. Why are people who are not readily agreeing that this is the end of days always accused of having vested interests? Why is okay to have a vested interest in wanting property prices to crash 50-70% plus but not to have a vested interest in not wanting property prices to crash that heavily because of not wanting to end up repossessed/in financial ruin?

I see so much hatred and bitterness here towards people who bought during the boom - it is assumed that all must be greedy and stupid and therefore deserve all they get. Indeed it would be good if they were all put out on the street asap because the sooner house prices go down the sooner you will be able to buy that super cheap house!

The hypocrisy is unbelievable and I wouldn't mind betting that a lot of the people on here who intend to buy at the bottom will be bragging about how much their house is worth in 5-10 years time/how little time it will take them to pay off their mortgage etc. They won't be mewing to buy 4x4s, no, the new snobbery will be all about whether you were clever enough to buy at the right time.

I'd also be interested to know how many of the people on here who intend to buy at the bottom will actually be so keen for house prices to continue falling/stagnate once they have bought their house.

fitpig

Darth_Marty wrote: »

ha ha the level of arrogance from you geoff is fantastic, you make me laugh, what makes you think you can accurately forecast world economy when far cleverer people have failed miserably?! ha ha just admit it my old bitter brother, you know just as much as the rest of us. Sod all.

Geoff knows F all! He hasn't even got a flaming job - let alone his own place. He's just bitter and hates everyone who has more than him - which means he hates EVERYONE. I've heard he's so miserable and horrible in real life that people avoid him like the plague, which is why his only buddy is tin ternet.

mbga9pgf

I'd also be interested to know how many of the people on here who intend to buy at the bottom will actually be so keen for house prices to continue falling/stagnate once they have bought their house.

commented on other threads. Yes, I would be more than happy for prices to stagnate. I want:

Maximum 3.5X mortgages brought back
minimum 15% deposit
restrictive taxation on any gain in your house over RPI. Say 80%.

Housing should not be treated like a tradable commodity.

IF you do your research, there are lots of reasons to believe this one is hugely different. THe scale. the simple fact that banks that have been in existence for 150 years have gone bust. Our own banks would have gone bust without significant intervention. Does this not make you realize the recent boom was far bigger than anything that went before it?

You do know that writedowns, do to US subprime, are not due to end for another 2 years? and that the FSA only required British banks to consider a 40% drop in UK house prices in isolation, and didnt get them to consider the fallout from other investments roundthe world? We are 1 year into this, of a correction that all the stats point toward a 4 year correction.



Not good.

Really2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

IF you do your research, there are lots of reasons to believe this one is hugely different. THe scale. the simple fact that banks that have been in existence for 150 years have gone bust.
.

Sorry legnth of time operating does not guarantee stability. In fact the longer you opperate the more chances are you will fail one day.
It's evolution and the weak fail. Making the fit stronger.

Why do people not see for every company failing it makes the ones in the same industry stronger. That is how the recovery will happen.

You are too young to remember any recession so how you know it will be worse is beyond me!

PS What "all stats" are pointing to a 4 year correction? is that houses economy? Could you supply them?

chucky

fitpig wrote: »

Geoff knows F all! He hasn't even got a flaming job - let alone his own place. He's just bitter and hates everyone who has more than him - which means he hates EVERYONE. I've heard he's so miserable and horrible in real life that people avoid him like the plague, which is why his only buddy is tin ternet.

lol - you've just described quite a few people on this forum :beer:

Kenny4315

carolt wrote: »

Phew! - I thought you meant the economy there, for a minute.

I really, really hope that will sort itself out sometime soon.

House prices? That's a different matter. Down with them!

The two are the same, if house prices keep tumbling then the economy will do the same. Mr Clown & Hs Darling put this on the agenda as never before seen when he tried to beat the economic cycle via consumer borrowing.

When we get down to a 35% drop it will wipe out millions of home owners and the knock on effect will be a disaster.

Luckily we have some NICE BTLers waiting in the wings for a drop of around 35% with some cash tucked under the mattress, to pull Mr Clown & Hs Darling, out of the mire and get housing moving. If it were not for all us community minded individuals investing in the UK, then the ship would sink later on in the year and they'd be F all Mr Clown & Hs Darling could do, look at his miserable efforts at present, he's only got 1.5% left and debt is of epic proportions.

the_ash_and_the_oak

I think the thing that will be interesting this time is when the population spike in UK demographics (boomers) retire and come to sell in around 7-10 years time to a generation below that is smaller in number.

mitchaa

geoffky wrote: »

I see some sellers are still thinking this is a blip and we are going to go back to 2007 levels in prices.
I reckon those prices were the very very top prices in a boom that will not be repeated for a very very long time.
So all these sellers hanging on for good prices are going to end up chasing the market down
The prices are being set in the margins now and the supply of money will not reach 2007 levels again in my lifetime.

Those days are gone and will not return for a very very long time so houses and their prices have only one way to go and that is down whether you want to sell or not as it does not matter because the market has done all its work while you are waiting.
i really think 50 % at least falls are possible when i look at all the figures..

I think you need to switch off the television, take a back step and venture outside now and again

I suspect you are later on in life with not that long left, so you shouldn't be worrying about house prices.

Really2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

I think the thing that will be interesting this time is when the population spike in UK demographics (boomers) retire and come to sell in around 7-10 years time to a generation below that is smaller in number.

But what about the fact population is increasing? They are not just going to disapear when they retire, Also Imigration could play a big role do you not think if we have a shortage of 20-30 somthings?

the_ash_and_the_oak

Also as to the 'too-early' predictions noted upthread, I think there is a large difference between someone predicting in 2005 that a crash would occur, and someone 'seeing' the beginnings of a crash at that time.

Identifying that a bubble is forming and therefore a crash inevitable, is not the same as believing it will occur 'tomorrow' and I think those that thought they saw 'negative' signifiers were wrong. The signs of a crash are not dropping prices, the signs are rapidly rising prices. To believe a crash is going to occur is to believe that prices will continue to rise, to see excessively strong demand. It really doesn't matter if prices continue to rise for x more years, whether it occurred in 05, 08, 10, or 12 doesn't matter. Once bubble territory has been entered, prices will drop below that significantly, even if they continue to rise for years in the meantime.

My grandparents sold to rent in 2004. At that time we believed a crash would occur in the next few years. I had thought housing didn't look quite right after the dotcom crash but to me it truly entered bubble territory in 2003. We were not confident enough to try and guess the top of the market with any precision (I thought 05, another friend thought 2010!), we knew the crash was coming and we believed prices would drop below the 04 price, even tho we knew they would probably rise for sometime after the sale.

I think that to criticize those that saw the crash 6 or so years ago isn't really correct. I think the criticism can be levelled at those that thought they say negative signifers 3,4,5,6 years ago and thought that was start of crash. I don't think those negative indicators were there, and in fact it was positive indicators that made my grandparents sell

Otherwise we are saying predicting a crash post Aug 2007 are the observant ones. Which to me is like looking out the window at midnight and predicting nightfall