Some People Still Think This Will Be All Over In A Few Years!!!

Conflict

carolt wrote: »

Phew! - I thought you meant the economy there, for a minute.

I really, really hope that will sort itself out sometime soon.

House prices? That's a different matter. Down with them!

It will be house prices stabilise before any kind of up swing in the economy. The 2 are far to interconnected - the economy relies on stable/upwards house prices in order to function stably itself.

Really2

Conflict wrote: »

It will be house prices stabilise before any kind of up swing in the economy. The 2 are far to interconnected - the economy relies on stable/upwards house prices in order to function stably itself.

I agree the withdrawal of credit had an instant effect on house prices. We have only started to see over the last 6 months how long business's have been able to survive without it.
Al things being equal we should see the first signs of things easing through the housing market (mainly transaction rates increasing)

OT but our local news were spounting 1/3 of sales since the new year are going to FTB how true this is who knows?

geoffky

really2..... looking back and comparing this one to that....this one is appearing to be X10 and i am not kidding.
All the pointers are just so extreme and this looks like the last one was a warm up.
I will say i can be very very bullish when the times right and have played the markets since 1992 and you would in those years have me down as.a uberbull but i know when the markets turns and gets this bad we are in for a rough ride.. i do concede that a lot of people will get through this relatively unscathed but for anyone who it touches it is going to be very difficult indeed as i just do not see where we pick up the pieces from.. but they will but never again will banking and housing go the way of 2007 lessons learnt and all that..

Darth_Marty

ha ha the level of arrogance from you geoff is fantastic, you make me laugh, what makes you think you can accurately forecast world economy when far cleverer people have failed miserably?! ha ha just admit it my old bitter brother, you know just as much as the rest of us. Sod all.

Really2

geoffky wrote: »

really2..... looking back and comparing this one to that....this one is appearing to be X10 and i am not kidding.
All the pointers are just so extreme and this looks like the last one was a warm up.
I will say i can be very very bullish when the times right and have played the markets since 1992 and you would in those years have me down as.a uberbull but i know when the markets turns and gets this bad we are in for a rough ride.. i do concede that a lot of people will get through this relatively unscathed but for anyone who it touches it is going to be very difficult indeed as i just do not see where we pick up the pieces from.. but they will but never again will banking and housing go the way of 2007 lessons learnt and all that..

I wrote this today.

Really2 wrote: »

if you want to think out side the box, forget the rosy stories of the past. The truth is people remeber the past fondly and the future with fear.
In 25 years time you will remember fondly how you got out of this period but how worse the next crash is.
That is what humans do.

I think it is relevent. I am a fairly realistic/optomistic guy but always look at the past with rose tinted glass's.
We were skint during the 80's but still remembe my child hood fondly. If a youngser from today was put back in my place he would think it was crap.
I would hate my child to go through the same but would he hate it most probalby not.
Will he look at his past fondly, most definatly every one does. We have a great ability of forgeting how crap things get but can remember any good point no matter how small.

mbga9pgf

Darth_Marty wrote: »

ha ha the level of arrogance from you geoff is fantastic, you make me laugh, what makes you think you can accurately forecast world economy when far cleverer people have failed miserably?! ha ha just admit it my old bitter brother, you know just as much as the rest of us. Sod all.

I called the crash starting Q1 2007 late 2006... I know it was brewing then. Do I get a gold star for being within 6 months when all those with gigantic IQs couldn't tell the difference between a RMBS and a CDO?

It actually was pretty easy to call the year. I remember quite distinctly it all started to go a bit wibbly on the markets back then.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=50037&hl=Q1

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=48976&hl=Q1

I predicted:


I'm calling the top now. I've thought prices were too high for several years but the conditions for bringing them down weren't there. Those conditions are now in place and cannot be wished away by the BoE, the MPC or Gordon Brown. The housing market has run out of steam, hundreds of thousands are over committed and there will be no way out for them. The property boom is dead and buried.


Called it for the first time Q1 2007. And if I am wrong, i am convinced I am not too wrong. we wont have to wait long now. Forecasting

1) dropping house prices
2) oversupply as BTL brigade drop properties like hot potatoes
3) US recession to kick in sometime next year around the same time
4) 30% down I reckon over 6-7 years. Taking in account of inflation.
[/quote]Think the scale and the speed were out a little, otherwise, not bad hey?

Go on, give me a gold star!!!

geoffky

Darth_Marty wrote: »

ha ha the level of arrogance from you geoff is fantastic, you make me laugh, what makes you think you can accurately forecast world economy when far cleverer people have failed miserably?! ha ha just admit it my old bitter brother, you know just as much as the rest of us. Sod all.

I WILL ASK THE QUESTION. AGAIN .ARE YOU A EA OR JUST SCARED PERSON WITH A MORTGAGE.....

Really2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

I called the crash starting Q1 2007 late 2006... I know it was brewing then. Do I get a gold star for being within 6 months when all those with gigantic IQs couldn't tell the difference between a RMBS and a CDO?

It actually was pretty easy to call the year. I remember quite distinctly it all started to go a bit wibbly on the markets back then.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=50037&hl=Q1

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=48976&hl=Q1

I predicted:



Think the scale and the speed were out a little, otherwise, not bad hey?

Go on, give me a gold star!!!

Wow 6 months out not bad but you joind HPC in May 05. Why did you join before? Where you talking the market up.:rotfl:

It was pure luck I purchased a house in 01, was I a financial genius or just lucky? Lucky

You were still wrong but do you not see that (you think a wrong guess is good?). But thanks for pointing out you are "wrong" and a HPC defect like I thought.

geoffky

miamidice wrote: »

The reality is no-one and I mean NO-ONE has an effing clue what the hell is going to happen. Even the most well-educated, experienced and intellectual economists and analysts are predicting things which turn out to be way off mark on a daily basis through this difficult period.

How much worse/better is it going to get and when? You're guess isn't worth the IQ it's thought out of - just the same as mine.

There is always one who turns up at the party late and drunk...:rotfl::rotfl:

Really2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

I called the crash starting Q1 2007 late 2006... I know it was brewing then. Do I get a gold star for being within 6 months when all those with gigantic IQs couldn't tell the difference between a RMBS and a CDO?

It actually was pretty easy to call the year. I remember quite distinctly it all started to go a bit wibbly on the markets back then.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=50037&hl=Q1

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=48976&hl=Q1

I predicted:


I'm calling the top now. I've thought prices were too high for several years but the conditions for bringing them down weren't there. Those conditions are now in place and cannot be wished away by the BoE, the MPC or Gordon Brown. The housing market has run out of steam, hundreds of thousands are over committed and there will be no way out for them. The property boom is dead and buried.


Called it for the first time Q1 2007. And if I am wrong, i am convinced I am not too wrong. we wont have to wait long now. Forecasting

1) dropping house prices
2) oversupply as BTL brigade drop properties like hot potatoes
3) US recession to kick in sometime next year around the same time
4) 30% down I reckon over 6-7 years. Taking in account of inflation.

Think the scale and the speed were out a little, otherwise, not bad hey?

Go on, give me a gold star!!![/quote]

You thought it was happening in 2005
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=17053&hl=mbga9pgf%20top&st=15




"Well, at least Jack has confirmed one thing for me -

We are about to enter the Anger phase boys and girls - looks as if even the homeowners realise their lazy gotten gains of the last few years are about to disappear in front of their eyes!!!

Well at least they have got over the denial phase!"


How many other guess's did you have.

Thats .:D