Aberdeen/shire house prices

damanpunk

donaldtramp wrote: »

Damanpunk,
Did you read my post??

I'll try again, using your example to prove MY point.

Dimlington is being built to IMPORT gas. That is gas that is NOT produced in the UK. Therefore the money and tax revenue will go to whoever extracted the gas in the first place, not the UK exchequer. We will then give the money to other governments, our hard earned cash!

Have a read here....
http://www.ct2-digital.com/ct2/200711/?pg=55

Gas consumption will rise by 2% every year till 2015 with imports expected to reach 50% by 2010

I'd agree that the property is overpriced, but that is a symptom that prices are dropping. They have reduced and still nothing!
There are a lot of twitchy day-raters in Aberdeen just now. You know the ones with the Porsche boxters and 911s on credit!

Did you read the link that you posted??? It backed up what I said, that there is still investment happening in the UK with its aim to increase current production. If West Sole, Amythest etc are not in UK SNS then accept my apologies :beer:

Really, I do get where your posts are coming from. I just think there is more life in Aberdeen than you think, especially where brownfield work is concerned.

Avina_Popp

donaldtramp wrote: »

Damanpunk,
Did you read my post??

I'll try again, using your example to prove MY point.

Dimlington is being built to IMPORT gas. That is gas that is NOT produced in the UK. Therefore the money and tax revenue will go to whoever extracted the gas in the first place, not the UK exchequer. We will then give the money to other governments, our hard earned cash!

Have a read here....
http://www.ct2-digital.com/ct2/200711/?pg=55

Gas consumption will rise by 2% every year till 2015 with imports expected to reach 50% by 2010

I'd agree that the property is overpriced, but that is a symptom that prices are dropping. They have reduced and still nothing!
There are a lot of twitchy day-raters in Aberdeen just now. You know the ones with the Porsche boxters and 911s on credit!


Sigur,
My plan is taking the cash whilst it's still in Aberdeen and saving it rather than blowing it on ridiculous cars etc.

At the moment I'm renting a house to stay in. So glad I did. Cashed in my GFs flat at the peak and now sitting quite happily in a depreciating asset!! It aint my depreciating asset;).

The money we're paying in rent has been surpassed massively by the drops the guy who owns it has taken in the fall in value!

Not to come across as gloating though, I still own a BTL. Boy do I wish I had sold that last year... Never mind:rolleyes:.

Not 100% sure about my long term plans.
All I know is a mortgage is usually for 25 years and Aberdeen will have tumbleweed blowing through it long before then!!

Methinks someone will have to try A LOT harder "Not to come across as gloating....".

crazygaijin

Whats mitchaa got to say these days?

Gone quiet mate?

crazygaijin

novazombie wrote: »

Mitcha`s future signature

Aberdeenshire Average Property Price
(Source Nationwide)
Q1 2009...up to 20% down
Q4 2009... another huge % DROP
Q4 2010... Oh no I cant sell my house.
Q2 2011... I`ve spent so much on my house its not fair its worth only 50% now
Yes i have lost a lot of money in this HPC :mad:

Just found this old thread.

Whats mitchaa got to say these days?

Still think house prices are always going up in your area?

epz_2

I was out on the ale in aberdeen a couple weeks ago as my mate is a doorman up there and we did the rounds of a lot of pubs. Speaking to all the bar/door staff they all said it was VERY quiet, anecdotal i know but a lot of jobs depend on oil so $37 a barrel isnt going to be good news.

donaldtramp

DP,

Did you read the link that you posted??? It backed up what I said, that there is still investment happening in the UK with its aim to increase current production. If West Sole, Amythest etc are not in UK SNS then accept my apologies :beer:

Really, I do get where your posts are coming from. I just think there is more life in Aberdeen than you think, especially where brownfield work is concerned.

I think we are trying to say the same thing!
I agree there is going to be a fair amount of brownfield work short term but long term I think Aberdeen is goosed......
I was trying to make the point that we are squeezing the last dregs out of the North Sea just now.
It's simple geology, when the oil's gone its gone!

Avina popp,
I'm truly sorry if you think I'm gloating. I'm not. This is my situation and I'm trying to do the best for myself.

All the best
DT

IveSeenTheLight

donaldtramp wrote: »

long term I think Aberdeen is goosed......

I was trying to make the point that we are squeezing the last dregs out of the North Sea just now.

donaldtramp - Very Interesting name, when Donald Trump is about to invest £1billion into a golf centre near Aberdeen. Why do this when there will be nobody to play there :rotfl:
http://www.trumpgolfscotland.com/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1562017/Donald-Trump-plans-andpound1bn-Aberdeen-golf-resort.html

The main point of your argument is that North Sea Oil is in decline and there is not enought to support the UK.
While I thought this may be true, you seem to disregard that the Aberdeen Oil Industry has adapted to become a global product. I myself am involved in the SE Asia and Africa MArkets, while I know colleagues who are involved in Australia, Gulf of Mexico and Brazillian Markets

Here a recent article about North Sea Oil
http://www.scotland.org/about/innovation-and-creativity/features/business/northsea.html

Rumours of North Sea gas and oil's demise have been greatly exaggerated – far from being on the brink of petering out, we've another 30 years' reserves to look forward to.

Following the discovery earlier this year of the Buzzard field, Scotland's oil and gas sector, which has played such a major role in our economy since the early 1970s, has effectively doubled its life span, compared to what was originally anticipated. Latest estimates talk of untapped oil supplies in the North Sea at least equal to the 32 billion barrels already extracted. All the more remarkable when you consider that 20 years ago people were confidently predicting North Sea oil would run out by the year 2000! Ironically, 2000 was the year the industry reached new heights – with oil production exceeding six million barrels per day for the first time.

IveSeenTheLight

donaldtramp wrote: »

long term I think Aberdeen is goosed......

I was trying to make the point that we are squeezing the last dregs out of the North Sea just now.

Following on from other points you have made.....


You also disregard that technology has advanced, such that fields previously not viable to produce now are, i.e. the West of Scotland

http://www.shetlandmarine.com/2008/05%20Oil%20&%20Shipping/new_oil_found_west_of_shetland.htm


Out of interest, do you work in the oil industry and if so which job description?

IveSeenTheLight

donaldtramp wrote: »

long term I think Aberdeen is goosed......

On to your house prices.

Donaldtramp wrote:

I also stay up in Aberdeen and I think there is a slightly different tale to tell.....

http://www.aspc.co.uk/Info/page_90.html

Page 1:

Quote:
The Aberdeen housing market area has seen a decrease of 8% in house prices on the previous quarter.
Nationwide reckon a 2% decrease last quarter in Aberdeenshire.

There is no denying that there is a slowdown in sales in Aberdeen, as pretty much the whole of the UK. Events in the UK and around the world in the last 18 months would obviously dent confidence.

I notice that the ASPC link is directed to a report from HBOS.
While it is useful to use HBOS as a guide, a much better guide is to look at the Registers of Scotland Agency Executive
http://www.ros.gov.uk/
They have more accurate data which can be seen at
http://www.ros.gov.uk/productsandservices/lpd_stats.html

There was a huge drop at the end of quarter three which may result in your 8% reported drops. In September the YoY% dropped to -10.35%, however the following month prices rose and the YoY% drop was only -1.12%
I would believe that the huge drop in September is why the report shows a big change, yet doesn't take into account the increase in October which would show in the Q4 report.

I've been tracking the Aberdeen house prices according to the RoSEA and can show you the following graphs



Data for Aberdeen and Aberdeen shire is here



So mitchaa is referring to that sa he bought in q1 2007, his property is still on paper worth more than he paid for it.

mitchaa

donaldtramp wrote: »

I can't remember who it is, but I remember someone gloating on here on their signature that they have made money "even during this house price cash" in Aberdeen/Aberdeenshire".

I also stay up in Aberdeen and I think there is a slightly different tale to tell.....

http://www.aspc.co.uk/Info/page_90.html

Page 1:
Nationwide reckon a 2% decrease last quarter in Aberdeenshire.

See signature please, if we are talking Nationwide stats:p Are we arguing black is white here?

Even in the Oil supported area of Aberdeen/shire, NOTHING is selling. I know of one couple who had their property in the local paper as "property of the week" 7 months ago and they've still got it. Not a sniff of any viewings never mind a sale!

Pretty much the same as everywhere else then, dont really get your point here Perhaps the guide price is set too high, as properties have been shifting in my area, even still.

It's gonna get far worse even in "Oil town".

Why? Oil has bottomed out at $40 a barrel and personally in my job, i couldn't be more rushed off my feet with work. As much OT at 1.5-2x as i like, however, Im the lazy type and have a young family, but if i worked hard at it, i could pretty much double my salary by working 60hr weeks as many of my colleagues are currently doing.

Oil is at $40 a barrel (compared to $150 not so very long ago) and predicted to stay low for months to come. Watch for those lay-offs, they are already starting......

Evidence required please, not heard of this and am in contact with hundreds of offshore workers week in week out.

As for long term future....I see a very bleak one.
The total production (barrels of Oil) from the North Sea peaked in 1999! Despite everything they do production of Oil is falling and falling fast. We can't even support our own country with Oil and Gas now, we have to import. By 2020 (only about a decade away) it has been predicted that the North Sea will only be producing one fifth of what it did at its peak.

Oil industry is undermanned so its just as well oil production is in decline. What point are you trying to make here? For the offshore worker, the amount of oil extracted has no real bearing on his job or his salary. Did you notice Shells Bi annual profits released a couple of months ago, hardly a company going to the wall As ISTL has already stated, Aberdeen workers are spanning out a lot further than the N.Sea;)

So I fully expect Aberdeen and the surrounding areas to start emptying of people. There is NOTHING else here apart from Oil.

Really, why is Aberdeen any different to cities like Manchester, Birmingham, Liverpool etc? What have these major cities got to offer? In fact, what does any city in the UK have to offer bar the capital?

Aberdeen is heavily oil related yes, but the thing with offshore work is that many of them go home already on their 2wks off, not all offshore workers speak with a funny Aberdonian accent, they come from all over the UK

I'm already planning my long term exit from here, along with a good number of friends who work in the industry, I reckon I'll get a few more years out of it yet though!;)

Ah, so you're not originally from Aberdeen then? It's quite a big brave move to move an entire family and friends network somewhere else Just out of interest, where would you move to that offers more than what Aberdeen has to offer, in the UK obviously? Im struggling here.

So a thread dedicated to myself based on the opinion of another MSE user:rolleyes:

Really you must try harder, next time, try and get some factual evidence to back up your claims

Not biting my friend, far too easy. There isn't even an argument here, just a feeble, trolling, wind up attempt:D

Ps....Pwned..What does this mean, i thought it was a word used by Vicky Pollard