Aberdeen/shire house prices

donaldtramp

Iveseenthelight,

donaldtramp - Very Interesting name, when Donald Trump is about to invest £1billion into a golf centre near Aberdeen. Why do this when there will be nobody to play there

That's going to create high quality bar tender and room maid jobs isn't it? Just the quality jobs Aberdeen is going to need isn't it?

Woopee! You've found a "recent article" that states that the future is bright for the North Sea. Rubbish! Did you notice it was published in 2003?
The UK is no longer "self sufficient" as the article states nearly 6 years ago!

Here is the latest report from Oil and Gas UK 2008. Published a couple of months ago from the main body representing the UK Oil and Gas sector.
It doesn't make for such nice reading. Try reading it I have!
http://www.oilandgas.org.uk/issues/economic/econ08/main/index.cfm

Try looking at this graph....

http://www.oilandgas.org.uk/issues/economic/econ08/main/outlook-2.cfm

Look at that decline curve go!!!
As for your thoughts that I,

disregard that technology has advanced

Unfortunately for you I have not disregarded it. If you look at the graph above, "possible incremental" and "incremental" are the brownfield improvements! And yet look at that production curve drop!

I have worked in Brown field developments and I don't work as a Roustie, or the rig floor or near the shop floor at all. Other than that I'm not going to say on MSE.

What point are you trying to make here? For the offshore worker, the amount of oil extracted has no real bearing on his job or his salary.

It will have an impact because as you say you have a young family. The oil production is declining upwards of 4% a year. At some point( not that far away) the oil production rates will NOT support the size of workforce that is here. People will move away ( I will, along with many of my mates) and house prices will tank.

Did you notice Shells Bi annual profits released a couple of months ago, hardly a company going to the wal

Yes I did, Oil prices were in a speculative bubble then. Next years profits will be nowhere near this.

Do you remember Shell cancelling its expansion plans for Aberdeen and selling off the old failing fields?
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/shelloil/Shells-shock-selloff.3295159.jp

What's going to happen when most of the fields in the North Sea are decrepit?

Really, why is Aberdeen any different to cities like Manchester, Birmingham, Liverpool etc? What have these major cities got to offer? In fact, what does any city in the UK have to offer bar the capital?

Do you know what the unemployment rates are in these other places? Particularly bad examples of benefit/ incapacity claimant percentages.

Just out of interest, where would you move to that offers more than what Aberdeen has to offer, in the UK obviously? Im struggling here.

I'm HAPPY in Aberdeen at the moment. I like it here. I'm collecting the golden eggs from the Goose. I'm just getting ready for the day the Goose stops laying.

As for all this about Aberdeen becoming an Oil export hub is great short term. But long term People catch up, copy and there are much, much cheaper places to manufacture than Aberdeen!

Really you must try harder, next time, try and get some factual evidence to back up your claims

Try reading the UK Oil and Gas report. I had to as it is relevant to my position. Sounds like you just work on a shop floor and don't have to think about the big picture.

Not biting my friend, far too easy. There isn't even an argument here,

No I won't attempt to stop you living in you're nice little bubble. Is it nice in there? If you don't want to plan for the future that's your choice!

Bought January 2007? That's gonna hurt shortly:rolleyes:

IveSeenTheLight

donaldtramp wrote: »

Woopee! You've found a "recent article" that states that the future is bright for the North Sea. Rubbish! Did you notice it was published in 2003?
The UK is no longer "self sufficient" as the article states nearly 6 years ago!

donaldtramp - Most of your responses are to mitchaa, not myself, but I would like to respond to the above.

I agree, UK is not self sufficient at the moment and certainly not from the North Sea.
this was my thought and I apologise for linking an article from 2003, it was just a quick search.

I notice you mention nothing about the Feb 2008 link I made about new fields with new technology in the West of Shetland.
http://www.shetlandmarine.com/2008/05%20Oil%20&%20Shipping/new_oil_found_west_of_shetland.htm
I'm sure there would be loads more links out there

Atlantic Oil is a huge potential for the future.
You mention that Aberdeen may not be a global export hub in the long term, but I can assure you, as someone based in Aberdeen but seconded overseas, I have seen in SE Asia and Africa, that while many locals are employed and the aim is to pass on knowledge, their culture and way of life is such that I do not foresee in the short term that these people could be self sufficient without the help of ex-pats and the need of people sent overseas with experience from the likes of Aberdeen.
I do know of some people who have relocated to Malaysia and Thailand as a closer base while working in SE Asia rather than the long flight back to and from the UK every month.
I also know that most people wouldn't dream of relocating to some places like Africa.

But your right in a way, one day oil will stop to be the major industry in Aberdeen, just like fishing did

So what is the future, ghost town as per your suggestion or redevelop into alternative industries?
Have a gander at these links showing Aberdeen is already in process of redeveloping

http://www.aberdeenrenewables.com/

http://www.all-energy.co.uk/

mitchaa

donaldtramp wrote: »

Bought January 2007? That's gonna hurt shortly:rolleyes:

Agreed in Q1 2007, bought in Q2 2007, worked out very well, as on paper i made a good £15-20k or so whilst the contracts were being exchanged as Aberdeen showed a very good HPI in that period.

The fact of the matter is the word shortly, not just yet;)

My 'investment' so far has been a good 1, admittedly it would have been better if i had sold 6 months ago, but im still up (Yes on paper) compared to when i bought June 2007.

Im not chasing every £ though and because of my young family i have no intention moving them about and unsettling them just to make a quick buck.

I will use the Nationwide index as my marker along with the more official Scottish Ros.

At the moment i have to take into consideration that

Q1 2007 showed £139k
Q3 2008 showed £162k

Now at some point i admit that £162k is dwindling away and will probably go under the original £139k, but in the next quarter? Im not so sure

Even when it does dip under, i then need to factor in the cost of rental in that time period to offset it against. At £1200pm for the equivalent home, i need to factor in say £14,500 per annum rental costs that i would have incurred had i not bought. Ive not looked into my mortgage and how much interest ive actually paid back but at some point i will weigh up the 2 and work it out.

Everyone is telling me i should be in negative equity back to 2005/2004 levels but this is completely wrong and hence the point of my signature. Anyone who bought property in the 1st 2, perhaps even 3 1/4's of 2007 will have made money (on paper) had they bought in Aberdeen(shire)

People do not like this, hence why so many feathers are ruffled about Aberdeen house prices

IveSeenTheLight

I was looking for an article I saw regarding Trump slowing down his development.
I'll post later when I find again.

In the meantime I did see this

North-East Gearing up for busy 2009, says tourism boss

http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1005546

IveSeenTheLight

donaldtramp wrote: »

That's going to create high quality bar tender and room maid jobs isn't it? Just the quality jobs Aberdeen is going to need isn't it?

Quite narrowminded really.

How about joiners, plumbers, electricians, plasterers, local house furnishing companies, managers, waitresses, bar tenders and maids , managers, golf professionals, caddies (wee boys on a sat morning job), accountants, clerks, greenkeepers, local gardening companies providing trees, sand and other gardening products, etc etc etc etc

IveSeenTheLight

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I was looking for an article I saw regarding Trump slowing down his development.
I'll post later when I find again.

In the meantime I did see this

found it and made a new thread
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?p=17099141#post17099141

mitchaa

DT...

Aberdeenshire Quarterly Index for last 2 years..

2007 Q1 £139,063
2007 Q2 £153,553
2007 Q3 £164,430
2007 Q4 £166,476

So the peak in Aberdeenshire was around this time last year with a 20% rise throughout 2007.

As a country, national reports are showing around a 12-13% decline in house prices across the board 2008, just a snapshot below of what Aberdeenshire is showing...

2008 Q1 £164,535 (Drop of 1.12% from peak)
2008 Q2 £165,600 (Drop of 0.5% from peak)
2008 Q3 £162,120 (Drop of 2.6% from peak)

Still to see Q4 drops and i have no idea what they will show but in the 9 months until the end of Sept, Aberdeenshire house prices dropped by 2.6% from its peak at the end of last year.

That is about a 10% difference to what current National data is showing.

The difference between Q1 2007 and Q3 2008 is showing a +16.5% INCREASE, sure this is dwindling away, but i think the figures speak for themselves to show that the area is coping well.

Im not silly enough to believe that prices cannot plummet as quick as they go up (Q1 to Q2 2007 as example) but at this moment in time, the housing situation is not worrying me and it will hopefully be another year or so yet before i even start to worry about negative equity;)

dopester

mitchaa wrote: »

Now at some point i admit that £162k is dwindling away and will probably go under the original £139k, but in the next quarter? Im not so sure

You seem to believe Nationwide figures, or other sources as stats as being something you can lock your asset value in to.

Dwindle away?

Really I don't think you understand the market. Your stat compilers could be telling you that your apartment is worth £160,000.... when even if you listed it for £80,000 you might not get a sniff of interest, come the near future.

Sorry mitchaa. When I think of your outlook to property values, I fear for the consequence of your mind-health in 2009, 2010/11.

2010.. I picture you running down a high street in your PJs, with an Edvard Munch "Scream" expression, pulling out your hair in clumps... as the truth dawns on you just how over-valued your property is and how deep in negative equity you are - and how other places are struggling to sell at -70% of what you thought your place was worth.

mitchaa

dopester wrote: »

You seem to believe Nationwide figures, or other sources as stats as being something you can lock your asset value in to.

Dwindle away?

Really I don't think you understand the market. Your stat compilers could be telling you that your apartment is worth £160,000.... when even if you listed it for £80,000 you might not get a sniff of interest, come the near future.

Sorry mitchaa. When I think of your outlook to property values, I fear for the consequence of your mind-health in 2009, 2010/11.

2010.. I picture you running down a high street in your PJs, with an Edvard Munch "Scream" expression, pulling out your hair in clumps... as the truth dawns on you just how over-valued your property is and how deep in negative equity you are - and how other places are struggling to sell at -70% of what you thought your place was worth.

Perhaps you can lend me a shot of the strait jacket come this time next year when your wild predictions come true;)

ess0two

donaldtramp wrote: »

Iveseenthelight,
That's going to create high quality bar tender and room maid jobs isn't it? Just the quality jobs Aberdeen is going to need isn't it?

Woopee! You've found a "recent article" that states that the future is bright for the North Sea. Rubbish! Did you notice it was published in 2003?
The UK is no longer "self sufficient" as the article states nearly 6 years ago!

Here is the latest report from Oil and Gas UK 2008. Published a couple of months ago from the main body representing the UK Oil and Gas sector.
It doesn't make for such nice reading. Try reading it I have!
http://www.oilandgas.org.uk/issues/economic/econ08/main/index.cfm

Try looking at this graph....

http://www.oilandgas.org.uk/issues/economic/econ08/main/outlook-2.cfm

Look at that decline curve go!!!
As for your thoughts that I,

Unfortunately for you I have not disregarded it. If you look at the graph above, "possible incremental" and "incremental" are the brownfield improvements! And yet look at that production curve drop!

I have worked in Brown field developments and I don't work as a Roustie, or the rig floor or near the shop floor at all. Other than that I'm not going to say on MSE.

It will have an impact because as you say you have a young family. The oil production is declining upwards of 4% a year. At some point( not that far away) the oil production rates will NOT support the size of workforce that is here. People will move away ( I will, along with many of my mates) and house prices will tank.

Yes I did, Oil prices were in a speculative bubble then. Next years profits will be nowhere near this.

Do you remember Shell cancelling its expansion plans for Aberdeen and selling off the old failing fields?
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/shelloil/Shells-shock-selloff.3295159.jp

What's going to happen when most of the fields in the North Sea are decrepit?

Do you know what the unemployment rates are in these other places? Particularly bad examples of benefit/ incapacity claimant percentages.

I'm HAPPY in Aberdeen at the moment. I like it here. I'm collecting the golden eggs from the Goose. I'm just getting ready for the day the Goose stops laying.

As for all this about Aberdeen becoming an Oil export hub is great short term. But long term People catch up, copy and there are much, much cheaper places to manufacture than Aberdeen!

Try reading the UK Oil and Gas report. I had to as it is relevant to my position. Sounds like you just work on a shop floor and don't have to think about the big picture.

No I won't attempt to stop you living in you're nice little bubble. Is it nice in there? If you don't want to plan for the future that's your choice!

Bought January 2007? That's gonna hurt shortly:rolleyes:

Taken from the scotsman article,its not all doom and gloom up there.


About 35 billion barrels of oil and gas have been produced from the North Sea over the past four decades, providing £215 billion in tax revenues to the UK Exchequer, and there is still all to play for.

There are, potentially, another 25 billion barrels of hydrocarbons that could still be recovered by an industry which employed 380,000 last year throughout the UK - 290,000 directly by oil and gas companies and the supply chain, with another 90,000 jobs supported by their economic activity.