Aberdeen/shire house prices

IveSeenTheLight

Since this thread is specifically about Aberdeen(shire) just a visualisation of the data we are talking about

I've been tracking the Aberdeen house prices according to the RoSEA and can show you the following graphs



Data for Aberdeen and Aberdeen shire is here

mewbie_2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Who says he wants to move up the ladder?
Maybe he's on a high enough rung already

Trouble is, there were two guys holding the bottom of the ladder while Mitchaa was trying to reach higher. Now Mr. BTL and Mr. FTB have decided to go down the pub leaving that ladder looking dangerously unsteady as Hurricane Crunch approaches. Now did Mitchaa have a safety net as well, or did he rely on his mates holding the ladder forever?

Ok, so its a bit rubbish, but would you expect any better from me?

t1gger

I don't think it's all doom and gloom for the energy sector in Aberdeen or indeed Scotland as a whole at all, quite the opposite. Scotland (inc. explotation of North Sea wind, wave and tidal) has a massive renewable energy potential (not nuclear rubbish).

I don't know how transferable jobs from oil an gas are but I believe jobs in renewable energy in Scotland are going to increase substantially in the coming years.

The natural resource base [in Scotland] for renewables is extraordinary by European, and even global standards. In addition to an existing installed capacity of 1.3 Gigawatts (GW) of hydro-electric schemes, Scotland has an estimated potential of 36.5 GW of wind and 7.5 GW of tidal power, 25% of the estimated total capacity for the European Union and up to 14 GW of wave power potential, 10% of EU capacity. The renewable electricity generating capacity may be 60 GW or more, considerably greater than the existing capacity from all Scottish fuel sources of 10.3 GW -- Scottish Renewables (January 2006) Market and Planning Report. Issue No 4.

The aim is for 18% of Scotland's electricity production to be generated by renewable sources by 2010, rising to 40% by 2020. Scotland is already ahead of schedule on both.
-- ^ Scotland's Renewable Energy Potential: Realising the 2020 Target—Future Generation Group Report (2005) Forum for Renewable Energy Development in Scotland (FREDS). Edinburgh. ISBN 0 7559 4721 5

Looking forward, we have increased the target for generating electricity from renewable sources to meeting 50% of Scottish demand by 2020, with an interim milestone of 31% to be achieved by 2011 [..] We will build on the success of onshore wind and hydro.
-- http://openscotland.gov.uk/News/This-Week/Speeches/Weathier-and-Fairer/ukenergybill

mitchaa

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

- "but im still up (Yes on paper) compared to when i bought June 2007."

what is this fixation with being "UP" on last year - when the time comes to move to a bigger property in the country or into a more expensive city property, THEY will also still be "UP" on paper, and the gap between the rungs of the ladder will be wider...

...so you end up paying more in cash/mortgage interest...a good move??

I agree with you CF, a step up the property ladder is going to cost more if prices do not head south.

However, for me, i was fortunate enough to jump straight into property and buy what i suppose would be my ideal home right at the beginning. It's not a usual FTB home as i have more space than i need, and there is no requirement for us to really ever need to move. 3 of us, 4bedrooms, 2 are lying empty, 1 is made into a guest room and the other has been made into a down stairs nursery for all my little ones toys. Area is rural aswell, so i cant really ask for any more. It's a house i can stay in for life if needs be, even with the future prospect of adding another 2-3 children to the bundle.

Saying that, at some point i probably will move closer to Aberdeen Central (Well Dyce) as the commute to work is a nuisance and being out in the sticks although fairly peaceful is sometimes frustrating as i need to commute everywhere, lack of shops, pubs etc etc. Im a city boy at heart

I dont really know what i want house prices to do round here to be honest, i just want i suppose to re-mortgage in 3yrs time with little or no hassle. Ive been hammering away at the over payments so even if houses do plummet here in the next couple of years or so, hopefully i should have protected myself from the brunt as i did buy at 97% LTV only 18mths ago:eek:

Everywhere else i suppose i would be in negative equity, but Aberdeen is a little different (i need a smilie of a fishing rod with that last 1 )

poppy10_2

mitchaa wrote: »

Everywhere else i suppose i would be in negative equity, but Aberdeen is a little different (i need a smilie of a fishing rod with that last 1 )

.

donaldtramp

Oh and regarding the comments about jobs in Aberdeen...

http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKLV53603820081231

http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1010559/

Oil and gas firm Oilexco North Sea (ONS) is poised to go into administration, leaving a questionmark over 50 jobs in Aberdeen.
Canadian parent Oilexco announced on Hogmanay that its only wholly-owned subsidiary intended to file petitions for administration “as soon as reasonably practicable”, but most likely early next week.
The group, whose shares slumped 60% in London following the news, said it had run out of options for ONS after bankers refused to provide further funding.

I reckon there are going to be a few companies with funding issues shortly.....
With oil at 40 bucks, drilling for oil is a risky (and expensive) business for banks to lend against at the moment.
They don't have the cash and don't want to take the risk.

geoffky

mitchaa... but you told me there was not going to be a crash in house prices!!!!!

poppy10_2

leaving a questionmark over 50 jobs in Aberdeen.

Come on, donald. I like mitchaa-bashing as much as the next guy, but that's pretty lame.

mitchaa

geoffky wrote: »

mitchaa... but you told me there was not going to be a crash in house prices!!!!!

If you are in Aberdeen(shire) has there been?

Down around 2.1% from peak i believe, count in your rental costs and factor them into the equation, then you have to ask yourself, what crash? My house would cost around £14,500pa in rental.

Donald...50 jobs, they'll just move onto other companies, there are a hell of a lot more than 50 jobs currently being advertised on www.oilcareers.com

I suspect there will be a few twitchy self employed day raters though, i really have never seen how paying a bog standard electrician £400 day rates is beneficial to any oil companies profit margins. The sooner they sort out these pop star wages for mediocre people, the better off their account books will look.

donaldtramp

Come on, donald. I like mitchaa-bashing as much as the next guy, but that's pretty lame.

Poppy, do you work in the Oil industry? If you don't, just so you understand the interconnections(and money) with suppliers are massive and very important.
Oilexco is an OPERATOR. 50 jobs is just the guys employed at the operator.
What about all the service companies who have contracts with them to provide all the services?
The rig companies, drilling companies, completion companies, service companies, helicopters, etc etc

Mitchaa,

I suspect there will be a few twitchy self employed day raters though, i really have never seen how paying a bog standard electrician £400 day rates is beneficial to any oil companies profit margins. The sooner they sort out these pop star wages for mediocre people, the better off their account books will look.

I totally agree with you! There are loads of credit funded 911's, boxters, M3's and M5's kicking about in Aberdeen. I also agree that these pop star wages will be the first to go.
By the way, you should see the day rates some guys are on(drillers, for example). I agree that there are a lot of mediocre chancers (I've met a few:rolleyes:) that are just about to be found out!
Think there are going to be a few car bargains about shortly!

By the way, I'm not out to "bash" Mitchaa or anyone else for that matter.
I'm just putting my view across, the same as everyone else on here. That's how I learn, I really am thinking about what everyone else is saying,

I really, really believe that long term(bearing in mind an average mortgage is 25 years) Aberdeen is going to be a DREADFUL place in which to own a house.
I will be more than pleased if anyone can prove me wrong but nobody has convinced me or shown any real plans have been drawn up for Aberdeen's long term future.

We're living in a wee oil bubble that will burst, I'm enjoying it, same as Mitchaa;), it is absolutely guaranteed though, to burst. It's geological fact, when the oil is gone it's gone.

I'll probably stay here as come 10-15 years from now I'll probably be able to buy a fantastic house(for buttons) when all around me people are fleeing elsewhere.....

P.S. I am renting in Aberdeen just now. Sold up a place middle of last year. Just to explain my train of thought.
I'm over the moon to have that cash in the bank and not depreciating in an illiquid object. I didn't have to pay stamp duty on the house I've just rented. Just called the agent to get the roof fixed, didn't cost me a button.

I've taken a gamble that the houses will drop by more than I pay in rent and so far I think I've been correct on that sale.

If I was to take out a 100% mortgage(if they were still available:rolleyes:) on the house I'm staying in would cost me way more in mortgage than what I pay in rent. To me that is an absolute no brainer to rent, especially with the market dropping.

Have you looked in ASPC to see what is available to rent? It is all the houses that were blatantly done up for sale. People are now willing to lease them "until the market recovers". I'm more than happy to keep surfing this for a while longer...

All the best
DT