Aberdeen/shire house prices

damanpunk

dopester wrote: »

2010.. I picture you running down a high street in your PJs, with an Edvard Munch "Scream" expression, pulling out your hair in clumps... as the truth dawns on you just how over-valued your property is and how deep in negative equity you are - and how other places are struggling to sell at -70% of what you thought your place was worth.

LOL, only if needs to sell or re-mortgage though? If you read any of his other posts you'd realise he is overpaying his mortgage too.

ad9898_3

ess0two wrote: »

Taken from the scotsman article,its not all doom and gloom up there.


About 35 billion barrels of oil and gas have been produced from the North Sea over the past four decades, providing £215 billion in tax revenues to the UK Exchequer, and there is still all to play for.

There are, potentially, another 25 billion barrels of hydrocarbons that could still be recovered by an industry which employed 380,000 last year throughout the UK - 290,000 directly by oil and gas companies and the supply chain, with another 90,000 jobs supported by their economic activity.

The fact that peak was in '99, I would suggest that 25 billion is going to be much more difficult/expensive to produce, are they booked as 'definite' reserves or 'possible' reserves ?. What was the OOIP in these fields ?

donaldtramp

Well done for searching out my professional status! But it doesn't mention the status of my job!

Quite narrowminded really.

How about joiners, plumbers, electricians, plasterers, local house furnishing companies, managers, waitresses, bar tenders and maids , managers, golf professionals, caddies (wee boys on a sat morning job), accountants, clerks, greenkeepers, local gardening companies providing trees, sand and other gardening products, etc etc etc etc

Narrow minded? Obviously my name sake agrees with me eh:p There is little demand for another 500 houses. Do you think the real Donald Trump knows what he is doing?
Just heard it on the radio as well. Thanks for the link.

The joiners, plumbers, electricians and plastering jobs you had hoped for would have came in useful to help out some of the tradesmen Stuarty Milne has laid off recently.

Atlantic Oil is a huge potential for the future.
You mention that Aberdeen may not be a global export hub in the long term, but I can assure you, as someone based in Aberdeen but seconded overseas, I have seen in SE Asia and Africa, that while many locals are employed and the aim is to pass on knowledge, their culture and way of life is such that I do not foresee in the short term that these people could be self sufficient without the help of ex-pats and the need of people sent overseas with experience from the likes of Aberdeen.
I do know of some people who have relocated to Malaysia and Thailand as a closer base while working in SE Asia rather than the long flight back to and from the UK every month.
I also know that most people wouldn't dream of relocating to some places like Africa.

I agree with you and have been overseas myself to share knowledge and pass on ideas and engineering knowledge. But that is the thing, we are passing on our knowledge! They will, in the not distant future, build and implement the technology faster, cheaper and with less regulation than us.

Remember the British Motorcycle industry? We thought we were better than everyone else how everyone laughed at the first Japanese bikes.....
This will happen in the Oil industry. We need to be ready for it and not just keep living the easy life off the back of dwindling oil supplies. Which lead me onto your next point...

But your right in a way, one day oil will stop to be the major industry in Aberdeen, just like fishing did

So what is the future, ghost town as per your suggestion or redevelop into alternative industries?
Have a gander at these links showing Aberdeen is already in process of redeveloping

http://www.aberdeenrenewables.com/

http://www.all-energy.co.uk/

I totally agree with you and this is the way forward! I find it so frustrating that we are not doing more with this. I think that most of what the public sector are doing to promote these ideas has so far been hot air. This is NOT what Scotland needs.
There is also the problem of local loud mouth NIMBYs shouting that they do not want transmission lines/ turbines anywhere near them.

Aberdeen/Scotland NEEDS to be at the very forefront of this technology. At the moment we buy our wind turbines from places like Denmark!
We can build these standing on our heads! Why isn't this being given serious backing?
Wind/wave power should be the next step for us and we are getting left behind whilst clinging onto a slowly dying industry. ( It aint that bad;), but in 10/15 years.....)

I truly hope Aberdeen wont become a ghost town but I have my worries. It will go downhill fast as the Oil fades. In that I have absolutely no doubt.

ad9898,
The 25 billion is a mixture of found and "probable" finds. There is big discussion about this and yes they will be much harder to develop and are (usually) tiny pockets of Oil and gas. These do not even come close to the monsters such as the old Forties and the Brent fields. (The Brent field is possibly being de-commissioned shortly)

http://www.shell.co.uk/home/content/gbr/aboutshell/shell_businesses/e_and_p/facts_figures/decommissioning/dir_decommissioning_21021140.html

They use a complicated formula to come up with expected reserves, then extrapolate it to produce the number of barrels left to recover. It isn't an exact science.
The only problem is that most of the North Sea has been surveyed and mapped out now. There is very little chance of finding "monster" fields in the North Sea now.
There are chances in The Atlantic but it is a much, much harder and deeper place to drill and produce from.

dopester

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I was looking for an article I saw regarding Trump slowing down his development.
I'll post later when I find again.

In the meantime I did see this

I said a while back the whole golf thing in Aberdeen, and the fancy, but crazily expensive apartments to go with it, didn't add up to me. Mental.

mitchaa wrote: »

Anyone watch the news last night Donald Trumps £1bn golf course in Aberdeenshire has been approved

Apparently going to be the best course in the world.

House prices are bound to plummet by 50% in the region now:p

dopester wrote: »

I'm not having a go at Aberdeen, but that £1 billion golf course development plan just doesn't make sense to me.... £1 billion! He sure has confidence in Aberdeen if this money goes in and the project goes ahead.

http://www.thestar.com/comment/article/533065
http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12564699

dopester

From Times Online
December 29, 2008

Donald Trump puts golf resort houses on hold due to credit crunch

Donald Trump’s plans to build 500 homes at his £1 billion golf resort in the north east of Scotland have been put on hold because of the slowdown in the property market.

George Sorial, the American tycoon’s lawyer, said that work on the championship golf course at Balmedie was proceeding “full steam ahead” - but conceded it would be several years before the houses are constructed.

The announcement is the latest controversy surrounding the development, which took two years to gain planning approval following fierce opposition by conservationists.

Critics seized on the delay as evidence that Mr Trump may not be as committed to the project as he has pledged, and claimed there could be further changes to come.

story continues here

ess0two

ad9898 wrote: »

The fact that peak was in '99, I would suggest that 25 billion is going to be much more difficult/expensive to produce, are they booked as 'definite' reserves or 'possible' reserves ?. What was the OOIP in these fields ?

In that case its to be expected to pay more at the pump sometime in the future.
But that kind of yield aint to be sniffed at as extraction processes improve with technology.

IveSeenTheLight

dopester wrote: »

I said a while back the whole golf thing in Aberdeen, and the fancy, but crazily expensive apartments to go with it, didn't add up to me. Mental.

Actually, they are saying with the pound lowering in value, it adds up even more to the Trumps, they just wouldn't see the point in releasing phases of housing till the pent up demand is back and they believe it will be back.

I posted this thread specifically saying about trump delaying

Threat to Donald Trump Balmedie Home Plan

MissMoneypenny

dopester wrote: »

I said a while back the whole golf thing in Aberdeen, and the fancy, but crazily expensive apartments to go with it, didn't add up to me. Mental.

Trouble in Trump town as tycoon's fortune dwindles

By Stephen Foley in New york
Tuesday, 2 December 2008
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/trouble-in-trump-town-as-tycoons-fortune-dwindles-1047081.html

Cannon_Fodder

Just a couple of quick thoughts...

- it has been said that Aberdeen-based industries are now "global" players, and so are insulated from local problems...

...great, but as out Great Leader keeps telling us, this is a global recession...so if the whole world cuts back on oil for an extended period, what happens??


- "but im still up (Yes on paper) compared to when i bought June 2007."

what is this fixation with being "UP" on last year - when the time comes to move to a bigger property in the country or into a more expensive city property, THEY will also still be "UP" on paper, and the gap between the rungs of the ladder will be wider...

...so you end up paying more in cash/mortgage interest...a good move??

IveSeenTheLight

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Just a couple of quick thoughts...

- it has been said that Aberdeen-based industries are now "global" players, and so are insulated from local problems...

...great, but as out Great Leader keeps telling us, this is a global recession...so if the whole world cuts back on oil for an extended period, what happens??


- "but im still up (Yes on paper) compared to when i bought June 2007."

what is this fixation with being "UP" on last year - when the time comes to move to a bigger property in the country or into a more expensive city property, THEY will also still be "UP" on paper, and the gap between the rungs of the ladder will be wider...

...so you end up paying more in cash/mortgage interest...a good move??

Who says he wants to move up the ladder?
Maybe he's on a high enough rung already