Aberdeen/shire house prices

donaldtramp

I can't remember who it is, but I remember someone gloating on here on their signature that they have made money "even during this house price cash" in Aberdeen/Aberdeenshire".

I also stay up in Aberdeen and I think there is a slightly different tale to tell.....

http://www.aspc.co.uk/Info/page_90.html

Page 1:

The Aberdeen housing market area has seen a decrease of 8% in house prices on the previous quarter.

Nationwide reckon a 2% decrease last quarter in Aberdeenshire.

Even in the Oil supported area of Aberdeen/shire, NOTHING is selling. I know of one couple who had their property in the local paper as "property of the week" 7 months ago and they've still got it. Not a sniff of any viewings never mind a sale!

It's gonna get far worse even in "Oil town".

Oil is at $40 a barrel (compared to $150 not so very long ago) and predicted to stay low for months to come. Watch for those lay-offs, they are already starting......

As for long term future....I see a very bleak one.
The total production (barrels of Oil) from the North Sea peaked in 1999! Despite everything they do production of Oil is falling and falling fast. We can't even support our own country with Oil and Gas now, we have to import. By 2020 (only about a decade away) it has been predicted that the North Sea will only be producing one fifth of what it did at its peak.

So I fully expect Aberdeen and the surrounding areas to start emptying of people. There is NOTHING else here apart from Oil.

I'm already planning my long term exit from here, along with a good number of friends who work in the industry, I reckon I'll get a few more years out of it yet though!;)

[Deleted User]

That would be Mitchaa.

To be honest im not too knowledgable on the oil production in the north seas, i thought most oil was imported in.

Surely though, Aberdeen will be the same as many other towns, whilst the prices of houses will reduce, people will always want to live there, having family there etc, is there not a town/community/university there?

Oil is gonna run out at some point, maybe they could reuse the staff in a few years to start hydrogen production?

poppy10_2

I think it's mitchaa you're thinking of. He's pwned, and he knows it.

beingjdc

Exactly right - Aberdeen is slightly off the UK economic cycle. It will also be seriously affected by the price and supply volume of oil and gas.

donaldtramp

Firstly what does "pwned" mean??

Supercharge-me,
regarding the Oil production from the North sea, I think the whole of the UK is going to feel the effects as we start running dry.
Broon has used and spent all the tax revenues over the last decade to balance the books of the UK. As we start producing less(and receive far less tax revenues) and transfer our wealth to other countrys by buying their exported Oil and Gas, such as Norway we(the UK) are going to feel real pain.
Norway shortly is going to be providing 40% of UK gas supplies. Imagine how much money we are going to have to pay them over the coming decades!! So it is going to affect all of us.

I really do think this is going to have serious implications for the UK. Nobody is dealing with it. Nobody is building wind farms, in fact nobody is building wind turbines! We buy all of our wind turbines from the Danes. More transfer of our wealth!!
Is it just me or does anyone else see the short sightedness of this?

sigur

donaldtramp wrote: »

I'm already planning my long term exit from here, along with a good number of friends who work in the industry, I reckon I'll get a few more years out of it yet though!;)

What's the plan donald ?

Im also in the oil industry so need a good exit strategy too

damanpunk

Your friends property was probably overpriced then and is still overpriced now. Things are selling (albeit not the week they are advertised), infact the flat above mine sold last month at a fixed price higher than what I paid for mine in 2007 peak prices!

How do you think you will be safe anywhere else in the world if the barrel keeps plummeting? Or do you mean your planning an exit from the industry completely?

If the people extracting gas thought the stuff was going to run out anytime soon do you think they'd be going ahead with new gas plants? i.e. BP Dimlington?

Even with the global downturn I've never been as busy.

donaldtramp

Damanpunk,
Did you read my post??

I'll try again, using your example to prove MY point.

Dimlington is being built to IMPORT gas. That is gas that is NOT produced in the UK. Therefore the money and tax revenue will go to whoever extracted the gas in the first place, not the UK exchequer. We will then give the money to other governments, our hard earned cash!

Have a read here....
http://www.ct2-digital.com/ct2/200711/?pg=55

Gas consumption will rise by 2% every year till 2015 with imports expected to reach 50% by 2010

I'd agree that the property is overpriced, but that is a symptom that prices are dropping. They have reduced and still nothing!
There are a lot of twitchy day-raters in Aberdeen just now. You know the ones with the Porsche boxters and 911s on credit!


Sigur,
My plan is taking the cash whilst it's still in Aberdeen and saving it rather than blowing it on ridiculous cars etc.

At the moment I'm renting a house to stay in. So glad I did. Cashed in my GFs flat at the peak and now sitting quite happily in a depreciating asset!! It aint my depreciating asset;).

The money we're paying in rent has been surpassed massively by the drops the guy who owns it has taken in the fall in value!

Not to come across as gloating though, I still own a BTL. Boy do I wish I had sold that last year... Never mind:rolleyes:.

Not 100% sure about my long term plans.
All I know is a mortgage is usually for 25 years and Aberdeen will have tumbleweed blowing through it long before then!!

mewbie_2

Look guys, it's not too late to delete this lot before Mitchaa sees it.

donaldtramp

Look guys, it's not too late to delete this lot before Mitchaa sees it.

:rotfl:
As good a reason as any to leave it up I think!;)

donaldtramp

I'll remember to post up next quarters house price results from the local solicitors office ASPC when they are published early January.

I'll take almost any bet that they've dropped and by a fair amount even in Aberdeen/shire.....