2009 House Price Forecast - HPC Board beats Halifax and Nationwide

ad9898_3

Down between 15% and 20%

StevieJ wrote: »

The poll was quite simple, what is going to happen in 2009 (not the next 18 months).

I and many others were wrong because of this.....

ad9898 wrote: »

this poll was before we knew the government was going to mortgage the next 3 generations to bail out the over indebted, and thats to say nothing of the £125 billion freshly printed folded.

StevieJ

Down between 3% and 10%

ad9898 wrote: »

I and many others were wrong because of this.....

The biggest effect on house prices were interest rates, low rates for 2009 were widely expected as you can see from the forecasts earlier in the thread.

michaels

Down between 10% and 15%

Q2 Results (so far)
House Prices +1.1%
GDP -0.8% (Q1 revised down to -2.4%)
Base Rate 0.5%
CPI 1.8%

I didn't do too badly but I didn't even know what QE was when I made my predictions let alone expected to see 125 billion (8% of GDP!) of it...

mr.broderick

No change (-3% to +3%)

StevieJ wrote: »

Congrats to these wise sages who had their forecasting boots on, still 6 months to go though, including the dark damp days of autumn and winter.

bluey890, dougk, dreamylittledream, mr.broderick Stang -3% and above.

Surprised to see bluey amongst the top prophets

michaels

Down between 10% and 15%

Ooops - shame about my house price predictions but aside from that if any of the big banks wants to hire me as chief economist I am open to 7 figure offers...

michaels

Down between 10% and 15%

Given the outurn, the house price prediction winners were:

Graham_Devon, HAMISH_MCTAVISH, Radsteral, Stang, bumpoowee, chucky, cubegame, littlebighorse


Not sure when everyone voted tho...

Really2

Down between 10% and 15%

Fairly sure GD had not voted on it last month. But I supose waiting untill the end of the year is a good way to get a correct forecase.:rolleyes:

There was no way he predicted a rise last year, I think we all know that.

nearlynew

Up between 3% and 10%

Last year’s winner
The fox in Kevin Goldstein- Jackson’s garden
+1 per cent
The semi-tame fox that visits the garden of FT Money columnist Kevin Goldstein-Jackson was the winner of the 2009 house price prediction competition, having also won in 2008!
Although not predicting the 2009 rise of 4 per cent, the fox’s choice of -3 per cent was closer than other published forecasters who all predicted sharper falls. This year, a new fox cub took up the challenge. Faced with small, identical sized pieces of sliced chicken marked from +18 to -18 per cent, the cub picked +1 per cent.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/0e8b9c78-f62f-11de-bf49-00144feab49a.html

Graham_Devon

Up between 3% and 10%

Really2 wrote: »

Fairly sure GD had not voted on it last month. But I supose waiting untill the end of the year is a good way to get a correct forecase.:rolleyes:

There was no way he predicted a rise last year, I think we all know that.

LOL, I pronounce you a genius.

Indeed, every else does know that as I have already stated on another thread that the poll should have been closed, as Hamish managed to also vote, but he wasn't even a member of the board until a good month after the poll.

Just like me, he's spectacularly right

Emy1501

Graham_Devon wrote: »

LOL, I pronounce you a genius.

Indeed, every else does know that as I have already stated on another thread that the poll should have been closed, as Hamish managed to also vote, but he wasn't even a member of the board until a good month after the poll.

Just like me, he's spectacularly right

I did find Hamish getting it right surprising in view of the fact that towards the end of 08 he was predicting total falls of about 30% before prices started rising sometime in 2010 on HPC if I remember rightly