2009 House Price Forecast - HPC Board beats Halifax and Nationwide

mitchaa

Down between 3% and 10%

michaels wrote: »

End of Q1 we seem to have:
House prices -4% (although if you take change in adjusted index from Dec 308.2 to March 301.5 you get -2.2% which I prefer!)
Interest rates 0.5%
Inflation: 3.2%
Growth: tbc (Q4 2008 -1.5% announced 23 Jan then revised to -1.6%?)

I'm not doing that well - anyone's prediction better?

I do not think that is quite right.

The Nationwide index shows 2009 to be..

Dec 08 £153,048
Jan 09 £150,501
Feb 09 £147,746
Mar 09 £150,946

So prices have fallen by 1.37% so far in 2009

Halifax index shows..

Dec 08 £160,861
Jan 09 £164,126
Feb 09 £160,327

So prices have fallen by 0.3% so far in 2009

Where has -4 and -2.2% come from

3 months in, 9 to go for all these guesses to turn true, im not holding out much hope for the 20%+ brigade:rotfl:

StevieJ

Down between 3% and 10%

“The first quarter of 2009 saw little improvement in the performance of the housing market across most
of the UK. In the first quarter of the year the average annual rate of house price fall was 16.5%, up
from 14.7% in the final quarter of 2008. There was some moderation in the rate of seasonally adjusted
quarterly fall during the quarter from 4.7% to 4.2%, but given the weakening economic and labour
market background, this is unlikely to be a signal of a very significant change in the direction of house
prices in the short term.

michaels

Down between 10% and 15%

OK I am quoting from page 3 of the Nationwide March release (see post 5 of the +0.9% MoM thread)

Seasonally adjusted index Dec 08 308.2 Mar 09 301.5 (Col 2 of table) = reduction of 2.17% from Dec level (I think this is on the same basis as Mitchaa's calc above but uses the seasonally adjusted series)
And 3 months cf previous 3 months -4.0% (Col 4 of table)

StevieJ

Down between 3% and 10%

OK, how are those forecasts doing ?

StevieJ

Down between 3% and 10%

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

take a look at StevieJ's post...!

Not doing to bad so far although a little pesimistic Are house prices really up 1.3% for first 6 months?wow.

StevieJ

Down between 3% and 10%

Congrats to these wise sages who had their forecasting boots on, still 6 months to go though, including the dark damp days of autumn and winter.

bluey890, dougk, dreamylittledream, mr.broderick Stang -3% and above.

ad9898_3

Down between 15% and 20%

Tut tut Steve, this poll was before we knew the government was going to mortgage the next 3 generations to bail out the over indebted, and thats to say nothing of the £125 billion freshly printed folded.

The situation has not changed apart from we are surfing the wave of the biggest amount of borrowing in history, drag this poll up again in 18 months time when we are washed up on the beach

StevieJ

Down between 3% and 10%

ad9898 wrote: »

Tut tut Steve, this poll was before we knew the government was going to mortgage the next 3 generations to bail out the over indebted, and thats to say nothing of the £125 billion freshly printed folded.

The situation has not changed apart from we are surfing the wave of the biggest amount of borrowing in history, drag this poll up again in 18 months time when we are washed up on the beach

The poll was quite simple, what is going to happen in 2009 (not the next 18 months). It is not really that surprising that we
had extreme policy decisions from the bank/govt as people were predicting a 30's style recession and deflation at the time of the poll.

Cleaver

ad9898 wrote: »

Tut tut Steve, this poll was before we knew the government was going to mortgage the next 3 generations to bail out the over indebted, and thats to say nothing of the £125 billion freshly printed folded.

I would imagine that a fair few people would have guess that at the first sign of house prices collapsing this government would do their upmost to keep them propped up.

ad9898_3

Down between 15% and 20%

Cleaver wrote: »

I would imagine that a fair few people would have guess that at the first sign of house prices collapsing this government would do their upmost to keep them propped up.

Would've have been a good idea if they'd had the money to do it, but borrowing to keep the borrowing going will end in tears, the only question is when.