2009 House Price Forecast - HPC Board beats Halifax and Nationwide

kennyboy66_2

Down between 10% and 15%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

House prices -4% -4% +1% -3%
Growth (quarter) -1.0% -0.7% +0.5% +0.2%
Inflation (end Q) 1.5% 0.4% -1.5% +0.5%
Interest Rates 1% 0.5% 0.25% 0.5%

LittleMissAspie

Down between 10% and 15%

skap7309 wrote: »

Average falls over the last 9 months are 2.02%. If this continues (and no reason to suggest otherwise)

I'm not sure 2% per month could be sustained for a whole year though, after 9 months of it already. As prices get a little more in reach, drops will slow. By the end of 2009 they might be dropping at 0.5-1% per month? Who knows, but that's my very cautious prediction

steadysaver

Down between 15% and 20%

LittleMissAspie wrote: »

I'm not sure 2% per month could be sustained for a whole year though, after 9 months of it already. As prices get a little more in reach, drops will slow. By the end of 2009 they might be dropping at 0.5-1% per month? Who knows, but that's my very cautious prediction

I wouldnt want to hazard a guess at what could be sustained or not in the current climate. Heck a year ago no-one would have thought a bank could collapse.

With Gordonomics, anything could be possible. As you so rightly suggest, who knows.

skap7309

Down between 15% and 20%

LittleMissAspie wrote: »

I'm not sure 2% per month could be sustained for a whole year though, after 9 months of it already. As prices get a little more in reach, drops will slow. By the end of 2009 they might be dropping at 0.5-1% per month? Who knows, but that's my very cautious prediction

I would agree (even as an uber-bear;)) that may well be unsustainable, however, the majority of 'expert' predictions for 2008 made in 2007 were hugely wide of the mark. I just think with things looking as bad as they are for the economy, Haliwide are worried about the implications due to releasing figures making it worse. They really must think the outlook is bleak if they refuse to state them.

torontoboy45

Down between 15% and 20%

agreed. although I'm surprised that haliwide haven't offered up a more optimistic view for 09, notwithstanding the (small) amount of derision heaped apon them for their (deliberately) inaccurate forecasts for 08.
this yr's silence speaks louder about the state of the market than anything said in previous yrs.

mitchaa

Down between 3% and 10%

skap7309 wrote: »

I would agree (even as an uber-bear;)) that may well be unsustainable, however, the majority of 'expert' predictions for 2008 made in 2007 were hugely wide of the mark. I just think with things looking as bad as they are for the economy, Haliwide are worried about the implications due to releasing figures making it worse. They really must think the outlook is bleak if they refuse to state them.

There are some stark raving bonkers on here:D ...Brit1234...You need professional help my friend, Strait jacket, men in white coats ring any bells recently?

What were hugely wide of the mark? We are not even down 15% from peak, so thats from Sept 2007, not January 2008;)

What are the yearly fall figures for 2008 as an entire year upto just now? 10/11%???

I would assume there will be an identical thread time stamped this time last year with all the usual suspects expecting 25-30% falls 2008 through.

If i could be ar*ed, i would do a search.

Anyone like to submit factual real 2008 drops?

skap7309

Down between 15% and 20%

mitchaa wrote: »

There are some stark raving bonkers on here:D ...Brit1234...You need professional help my friend, Strait jacket, men in white coats ring any bells recently?

What were hugely wide of the mark? We are not even down 15% from peak, so thats from Sept 2007, not January 2008;)

What are the yearly fall figures for 2008 as an entire year upto just now? 10/11%???

I would assume there will be an identical thread time stamped this time last year with all the usual suspects expecting 25-30% falls 2008 through.

If i could be ar*ed, i would do a search.

Anyone like to submit factual real 2008 drops?

Mitchaa, PLEASE give us your predicted rise/drop for 2009 with reasons - i would love to know it.

carolt

Down between 15% and 20%

Don't know if you'll find a 2008 thread - I did try looking, but couldn't find one, as I think it may coincide with the period when the whole board was confined to a single sticky thread! :rotfl:

mitchaa

Down between 3% and 10%

skap7309 wrote: »

Mitchaa, PLEASE give us your predicted rise/drop for 2009 with reasons - i would love to know it.

Overall i have always predicted around 25% nationwide drops, but i did also state that come 6-9mths into 2009, the bottom will have been reached, so given we are still at just under 15%, perhaps a little more with Decembers drop taken into account, i still remain fairly strong opinionated that it will be ITRO of 25%, 30% at a max perhaps with 1 of the lenders rather than official LR figures.

So overall for 2009, im in the minus 1-10% camp.

Reasons...

A lot of the drops so far are due to the obvious reasons, tightening of money lending by the banks, and the subsequent low volume of sales. However, those that can stay put will stay put and this has been made evident by the numbers of threads on here... ''Why has house X not fallen by 15%, it remains stable'' type of threads.

Mortgage lending figures look to have bottomed out 2-3 months ago or so and remained fairly steady since. Already, higher LTV mortgages are coming back, 95% and in even in 1 example 100% for existing lenders. Affordability levels, yes done a million times on here in the past are now nearly within reach for most families, another £15-20k or so and they will, as an average, be affordable for average income families.

Interest rates are at a near all time low, many BTL on trackers will be rubbing their hands at the moment ready to re-invest, along with those that have saved up deposits in the last 12-18mths or so.

Economy is in free fall, but if you have a stable job, then this can be a good thing for you as everything is as cheap as chips, which obviously then gives you more disposable income.

2009 will not be worse than 2008, not a chance in hell;) Please someone bookmark this thread and resurrect it Dec 2009:D

I'll happily eat humble pie and hold my hands up and state i was wrong if things really do turn doom and gloom by this time next year

Now you go on, and tell me why your opinion is the direct opposite of mine, rising unemployment as a reason in there perhaps:rolleyes:

overlander

Down more than 35%

I think a lot of people are in for a shock this baby is just starting, years of financial incompetency to unwind.