2009 House Price Forecast - HPC Board beats Halifax and Nationwide

mitchaa

Down between 3% and 10%

So far in 2008,

Jan -0.1%
Feb -0.5%
Mar -0.6%
Apr -1.1%
May -2.5%
June -0.9%
July -1.7%
Aug -1.9%
Sep -1.7%
Oct -1.4%
Nov -0.4%

So in the 11 months so far of 2008, a 12.8% drop or an average of -1.16%

neverdespairgirl

Down between 10% and 15%

mitchaa wrote: »

So its safe from all my posts above that my predictions have always been around a 25% drop from peak give or take a little. You learn more as the year pans out and slight variations to your original beliefs may occur i.e from 20-25%

They haven't! In May and June, they were 20 to 25%, but earlier in the year, "25-50% crashes that are being predicted on here are just ludicrous."

mitchaa

Down between 3% and 10%

neas wrote: »

Q4 2008 .... £150,000

Then Q1 2008 .... £139,063

At which point you've lost money :P

Q4 may show a £150k figure, im not denying that and im sure there will be many making the point to wind me up about it.

I dont care though

I bought 1st 1/4 2007 (well 2nd but agreed in 1st) and the index shows that still as a sound investment. All the experts however are stating we are well back to 2006, 2005 and even 2004 levels nationwide.

Mitchaa says lot of rubbish to that;)

I suspect my negative may happen perhaps Q2, but more likely Q3 of 2009. In that time though i will have paid a chunk of my mortgage to help keep me out of -ve equity.

The brains would say sell now, well 6 mths ago in fact but i simply cannot be bothered and not chasing every penny of fictional money. My home is my home, its all up and down on paper, that's all. At the moment paper says up, this time next year it may say down but i couldn't give 2 hoots to be honest.

Mitchaa

mitchaa

Down between 3% and 10%

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

They haven't! In May and June, they were 20 to 25%, but earlier in the year, "25-50% crashes that are being predicted on here are just ludicrous."

You are picking at 1 point, 25% as a whole for every town and city i would still say is ludicrous, (Actually lets now change that to wishful thinking ) For 1, i do not expect my area to fall near that, more like 15%

London might though and will probably go beyond that.

I have seen a few predictions from a couple of the big boys drop recently, the 60/70/80% doom and gloom crew have gone quiet

You picking for a fight today NDG Im sure i could go back and scrutinise posts you made 6mths ago or longer, but to be honest i cant be bothered searching for them:xmassign:

skap7309

Down between 15% and 20%

mitchaa wrote: »

I have seen a few predictions from a couple of the big boys drop recently, the 60/70/80% doom and gloom crew have gone quiet

Quietly confident.........;)

mitchaa

Down between 3% and 10%

skap7309 wrote: »

Quietly confident.........;)

Your deposit will not be a deposit, you'll be mortgage free

Im sure a lot of old threads will be resurrected in the middle of next year for some point scoring and ''I told you so'':rotfl:

skap7309

Down between 15% and 20%

mitchaa wrote: »

Your deposit will not be a deposit, you'll be mortgage free

TBH it will always remain a 40% deposit - be it on a studio flat or a five bed detached. Just biding time and seeing what the crash brings to the table. :beer:

michaels

Down between 10% and 15%

michaels wrote: »

My guesses (Update 1 19/12/08)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

House prices -2% -2% -4% -2%
Growth (quarter) -1.5% -0.5% -0.2% 0.2%
Inflation (end Q) 2.5% 1.2% 1% 1.5%
Interest Rates 1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%

These are gut figures, no modelling has been done

Looks like I may have been too optimistic on house prices, must admit I had thought the govt attempts to reflate would bring a small spring rally (dead cat bounce?) opening a window for an election in May but it doesn't look like they have acheived this...

michaels

Down between 10% and 15%

End of Q1 we seem to have:
House prices -4% (although if you take change in adjusted index from Dec 308.2 to March 301.5 you get -2.2% which I prefer!)
Interest rates 0.5%
Inflation: 3.2%
Growth: tbc (Q4 2008 -1.5% announced 23 Jan then revised to -1.6%?)

I'm not doing that well - anyone's prediction better?

michaels wrote: »

As posted by Mystic_Trev here, Halifax and Nationwide refuse to make 2009 predictions - but we are made of sterner stuff.

The poll is for Year on Year change Jan-Dec 2009 but I thought anyone brave enough could predict quarterly figures for this (and any other economic indicators they care to chose) in the thread. I will post an example below but will need to come back to it for my final predictions.

I think we should mark entries against the Nationwide index.

My guesses (Update 1 19/12/08)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

House prices -2% -2% -4% -2%
Growth (quarter) -1.5% -0.5% -0.2% 0.2%
Inflation (end Q) 2.5% 1.2% 1% 1.5%
Interest Rates 1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%

These are gut figures, no modelling has been done

StevieJ

Down between 3% and 10%

-4% for me :T

Not so great on the others CPI 1.5, Interest rates 1%.