2009 House Price Forecast - HPC Board beats Halifax and Nationwide

mitchaa

Down between 3% and 10%

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

do you really expect house prices to rise 5% next year, incl. 4% in the 1st quarter? Or have I misread something?

For an intelligent girl like yourself NDG, you should know fine well to cross refer it against the public poll table and see where his prediction lies:p

He has just missed out the negatives, as in down 4%, down 1%

Stevie has predicted -3 to -10% drops in the next year, obviously a guy with his head screwed on, but your prediction isn't too far off in the next table down so you're not a true doom and gloom like i once thought you were A match on this year then for you?

1echidna

Down between 25% and 30%

Every scientist knows that turbulence is virtually impossible to predict and there is a lot of turbulence about in the economy. That of course along with being accused of talking down prices if they really gave an honest best guess I suppose are valid reasons why Nationwide and Halifax are steering clear. To my mind a lot depends on inflation perhaps deflation. Deflation might murder the prospects for house prices with 30% losses in 2009 is easily achievable. If measures such as "quantitative easing" flood the economy with money, housing price falls may be much more modest (people both having the money to buy and the confidence that property is a safe haven in inflationary times). All in all though I think that the UK credit bubble was a large one, and it has been savagely pricked with a lot of the consequences not yet hitting home, I would expect a 30% drop in 2009 in house prices in real terms (alowing for inflation). Please don't slander people with mental health problems mitchaa by calling me one, as, it is, as they say a mad world.

skap7309

Down between 15% and 20%

mitchaa wrote: »

2009 will not be worse than 2008, not a chance in hell;) Please someone bookmark this thread and resurrect it Dec 2009:D

I'll happily eat humble pie and hold my hands up and state i was wrong if things really do turn doom and gloom by this time next year

Now you go on, and tell me why your opinion is the direct opposite of mine, rising unemployment as a reason in there perhaps:rolleyes:

A balanced reply Mitchaa, im impressed!

I agree with certain points you make no doubt about that. However (as earlier in this thread) my predictions are -15% next year then -5 to -10% for 2010, making a possible 35-40% peak to trough drop. Not to be sniffed at and calling for the funny farm surely?

My reasons are fairly simple - i cannot fathom how 2009 will be better than this year. We had an almightly boom and to say the bust will be over in the blink of an eye just would not make sense. Middle to back end of 2010 for me before things are rosy again. We are only just really entering recession and the whole thing has been like a supertanker trying to go from full speed ahead into reverse. It is taking a loooong time to stop her but she is just building up reverse speed as we speak. The same will apply in the other direction. YES, unemployment will be a factor, how can it not? No income - no spending power. Job cuts in 2009 will not be pretty.

Also - the fact Haliwide will not produce figures speaks volumes. The slight slip of politician's tongues that 2009 will be:

• just as tough as 2008
• it may take two years for banks to start lending again
• we are facing the worst property downturn since records began
• we are facing a long and deep recession etc, etc

Bottom line is, we shall see.....

davilown

Down between 15% and 20%

Just to butt in, I think that a -15% for the next twelve months. Beyond that I'm not sure. I think that the increased redundancies in the end of '08/first part of '09 will result in an increase of properties on the market as owners will not be able to afford the repayments as their redundancy cover will have ended. This could however be counteracted by the increase in FTBs who can afford to buy. Obviously this is dependent on the banks lending policies.

NB: This is only my personal opinion and only based on what I observe in everyday life. I am yet to get on the ladder but can only thank my cotton socks that I did not buy last year when I was intending do.

neverdespairgirl

Down between 10% and 15%

mitchaa wrote: »

Overall i have always predicted around 25% nationwide drops, but i did also state that come 6-9mths into 2009, the bottom will have been reached, so given we are still at just under 15%, perhaps a little more with Decembers drop taken into account, i still remain fairly strong opinionated that it will be ITRO of 25%, 30% at a max perhaps with 1 of the lenders rather than official LR figures.

I don't think you have "always" been predicting anything of the sort.

In May you were saying 20 - 25% drop from peak:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=11291521&postcount=57

And again in May, you were predicting slightly under 20% from peak:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=11287147&postcount=20

In April you said:

Also dont listen to this HPC brigade nonsense, i bought my house June 07 and yesterday i had it valued at +£40k from what i paid for it only 10 mths ago.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=10457057&postcount=34

And also:

I think its too rash to generalise that the UK is going to see 30/40/50% falls across the board.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=10243307&postcount=28

In March you doubted there were any falls happening:

Where is the fall may i ask? LR figures are still showing YOY rises, nationwide are still in the positive and currently so are halifax.

Next month halifax/nationwide may dip under, but what does that mean? A crash or a stagnation? A £150k property in April 2007 = £150k property in April 2008. hardly a crash my friend

My property has increased on paper £25-30k in that time period, depends on where you are in the UK i suppose.

Like i said before we'll soon be putting houses on our credit cards if you read half of the drivel on this site.

You are 1 of the main culprits for scaremongering. Only a fool would listen to some Joe Bloggs on an internet forum;)

No point in arguing about it though, your crystal ball is no better than mines. This housing crash has supposedly been awaiting from back in 2003. In 2008, we are still waiting:D

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=10152851&postcount=47

Also in March, any idea that prices would fall 25% or more was "ludicrous"

Housing crash or a correction is the argument. Im sure no-one expects property to rise like it has done so in the past 7-8yrs or so.

I predict a big correction in the south that will work its way up north minimising all the way up the country. Yes some areas of Scotland will be corrected too, but 25-50% crashes that are being predicted on here are just ludicrous. (For Scotland and northern England anyway)

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=9614033&postcount=37

Also in March, a fall was more likely than a rise, but who could be sure?

Yes but with renting you see no benefits of growth in the property. I know, i know, at the moment its unlikely you will see any growth, more likely a fall but this is not a certainty, just peoples opinions! No-one knows whats going to happen.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=9264569&postcount=6

neverdespairgirl

Down between 10% and 15%

mitchaa wrote: »

but your prediction isn't too far off in the next table down so you're not a true doom and gloom like i once thought you were A match on this year then for you?

I said I thought prices would fall 10 to 15% this year, hardly "doom and gloom" more like "right".

I think another 10 to 15% likely next year, but at the higher end of that range, likely 14% ish.

neas

Down between 15% and 20%

10-15% is still faster than the previous crash

free4440273

Down between 15% and 20%

I vote: another 15-20 per cent drop; ditto here in the States I think; commercial property and the ensuing credit defaults will be the next shoe to drop I reckon.

mitchaa

Down between 3% and 10%

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

I don't think you have "always" been predicting anything of the sort.

In May you were saying 20 - 25% drop from peak:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=11291521&postcount=57

And again in May, you were predicting slightly under 20% from peak:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=11287147&postcount=20

In April you said:

Also dont listen to this HPC brigade nonsense, i bought my house June 07 and yesterday i had it valued at +£40k from what i paid for it only 10 mths ago.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=10457057&postcount=34

And also:

I think its too rash to generalise that the UK is going to see 30/40/50% falls across the board.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=10243307&postcount=28

In March you doubted there were any falls happening:

Where is the fall may i ask? LR figures are still showing YOY rises, nationwide are still in the positive and currently so are halifax.

Next month halifax/nationwide may dip under, but what does that mean? A crash or a stagnation? A £150k property in April 2007 = £150k property in April 2008. hardly a crash my friend

My property has increased on paper £25-30k in that time period, depends on where you are in the UK i suppose.

Like i said before we'll soon be putting houses on our credit cards if you read half of the drivel on this site.

You are 1 of the main culprits for scaremongering. Only a fool would listen to some Joe Bloggs on an internet forum;)

No point in arguing about it though, your crystal ball is no better than mines. This housing crash has supposedly been awaiting from back in 2003. In 2008, we are still waiting:D

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=10152851&postcount=47

Also in March, any idea that prices would fall 25% or more was "ludicrous"

Housing crash or a correction is the argument. Im sure no-one expects property to rise like it has done so in the past 7-8yrs or so.

I predict a big correction in the south that will work its way up north minimising all the way up the country. Yes some areas of Scotland will be corrected too, but 25-50% crashes that are being predicted on here are just ludicrous. (For Scotland and northern England anyway)

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=9614033&postcount=37

Also in March, a fall was more likely than a rise, but who could be sure?

Yes but with renting you see no benefits of growth in the property. I know, i know, at the moment its unlikely you will see any growth, more likely a fall but this is not a certainty, just peoples opinions! No-one knows whats going to happen.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=9264569&postcount=6

Im impressed but a lot of that was on my own circumstances, i.e the details in the signature below, on paper i have made money still from my purchase June 2007 (deal sealed though in 1st 1/4)

So its safe from all my posts above that my predictions have always been around a 25% drop from peak give or take a little. You learn more as the year pans out and slight variations to your original beliefs may occur i.e from 20-25%

For 1, i wasn't aware of the previous undershoot trends in the last crash so that may take things a little higher than my original prediction of 20%

As to your other point, i did not doubt that the market was falling, just at the time all indicators were still showing positives and stirring up the pot.

neas

Down between 15% and 20%

Q4 2008 .... £150,000

Then Q1 2008 .... £139,063

At which point you've lost money :P