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Debate House Prices
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House price falls may well accelerate in 2009
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I think this is total myth. How many cash rich investors do you actually think are out there ?, one thing is BTL increased 35 fold in the last 10 years, most of that increase would have come from 2000 onwards.
With every month that goes by, prices are reversing back towards this date, slowly but surely that 35 fold increase will probably turn into a 25-30 fold decrease by the time we hit bottom.
BTL is going in reverse as fast as prices are falling, sure there will be a few out there that will cash in but there will be only a tiny fraction of the investors that have been in the market up until recently, no where near enough to have an impact on prices.
This misconception comes about because people perceive the housing market to be a sort of closed ecosystem; ie, if prices drop, pent up demand will flood in, bringing up prices again.
What people don't understand is that you only get out of a system what you put in; there's no such thing as perpetual-motion and once you remove the energy input, the system dies.
The energy (repackaged and disguised debt) has disappeared so the system (HPI) will grind to a halt. To ignore this is classic bubble mentality; as Niall Ferguson put it in 'The Ascent of Money', 'trees don't grow to the sky'.'Never keep up with Joneses. Drag them down to your level. It's cheaper.' Quentin Crisp0 -
Austin_Allegro wrote: »Well that's sort of my point - the trouble is most people don't realise this, or don't want to be the first to drop their price in case nobody else does, which is why they are holding out for fantasy prices which aren't going to happen.
The point is if people sell now they will have the Sharks putting in, mmm what do they call it? ahh yes realistic bids
Most people are not top negotiators so they will end up losing out on the deal, much better to wait until the market has flattened /normalised and conducting a less pressurised transaction. 'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
The question is, will valuers take forced sales/auctions and repos as the normal price, when valuing a different house for a normal purchase/mortgage? A genuiine question because I don't know (although I would doubt it).
They will, I think. Because they want to know they can get their money back if they have to repossess....much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0 -
Different planet mate, why will people who don't sell their houses now be any worse off,when the price of the house they intend to move to have fallen also.
Downsizes, people selling second homes or BTLs, probate sales - those people are worse off, as they aren't buying up "the ladder"...much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0 -
I think this is total myth. How many cash rich investors do you actually think are out there ?,
I don't think it's a total myth - there are undoubtedly some such investors....much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0 -
mewbie checks in wallet... uh huh... feeling pretty loaded-- don't want to brag.. but its paper not coin.. and its a blue one.neverdespairgirl wrote: »I don't think it's a total myth - there are undoubtedly some such investors.0 -
neverdespairgirl wrote: »Downsizes, people selling second homes or BTLs, probate sales - those people are worse off, as they aren't buying up "the ladder"
That is fine, but the rest should not be bothered'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
I don't think you'll find that special price you're looking for in the bay area anytime soon. Be really careful with any deals you see or heard about. Make certain everything is exactly the way you want it to be. Don't let excitement over any home or location make you sign papers before you have done your homework, and thought over everything you need to do. Get all the inspections needed of any house with the reports coming to you before the real estate broker. You want to be able to be trouble free of any problems for a good number of years, without having a real estate broker say they over looked tell you or informing you of something..Remember one thing and that is, if it is to be, no matter how long it takes it will be worth the effort and time waiting.0
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I dare say the rather feeble spam above will fall victim to the fact that we aren't, in general, in the USA....much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.0
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Still, good to resuscitate the thread.
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