House price falls may well accelerate in 2009

StevieJ

skap7309 wrote: »

Exactly. This is cropping up more and more latley. Not selling as prices fall.

So, let me get this straight......

No-one sells houses. Fine. Bit of a problem there though. They die. Their house gets sold. Kinda getting the picture here?

The question is, will valuers take forced sales/auctions and repos as the normal price, when valuing a different house for a normal purchase/mortgage? A genuiine question because I don't know (although I would doubt it).

Conrad

StevieJ wrote: »

The question is, will valuers take forced sales/auctions and repos as the normal price, when valuing a different house for a normal purchase/mortgage? A genuiine question because I don't know (although I would doubt it).

Forced / motivated sales make up a high proportion now, so of course valuers will use these as part of thier benchmarking. In the end a lender wants the value to reflect the figure they are likely to be able to recover now, which is of course the forced sale value.

Many lenders now want a '30 day valuation', that is to say, the valuation to be pitched at the level the property would sell at within 30 days of hitting the market.

StevieJ

Conrad wrote: »

Forced / motivated sales make up a high proportion now, so of course valuers will use these as part of thier benchmarking. In the end a lender wants the value to reflect the figure they are likely to be able to recover now, which is of course the forced sale value.

Many lenders now want a '30 day valuation', that is to say, the valuation to be pitched at the level the property would sell at within 30 days of hitting the market.

Any links to prove this?

Austin_Allegro

It's worth remembering that prices dropped quite slowly in the last crash, and I think they will this time too.

I have been surprised by the length of the stalemate, I would have thought any seller with a brain would have capitulated by now and dropped their price to an affordable level, but it looks like it's going to be a hard fight to the finish.

The end will come when enough forced sales have taken place to make the 2007 peak-price 'I'll just sit tight and wait out the crash' fantasists to realise the party is over.

The recession is snowballing by the day - Woolworths to lay off 30,000 after Christmas - so I think the beginning of the end of the stalemate is going to be mid to late 2009.

Of course, I may be wrong. It's quite likely that the financial wizards who brought us CDOs, debt tranches, NINJA loans etc will work out some other fiddle, in tandem with the government, to keep the housing market dead enough to maintain 2007 nominal values...

StevieJ

Austin_Allegro wrote: »

It's worth remembering that prices dropped quite slowly in the last crash, and I think they will this time too.

I have been surprised by the length of the stalemate, I would have thought any seller with a brain would have capitulated by now and dropped their price to an affordable level, but it looks like it's going to be a hard fight to the finish.

The end will come when enough forced sales have taken place to make the 2007 peak-price 'I'll just sit tight and wait out the crash' fantasists to realise the party is over.

The recession is snowballing by the day - Woolworths to lay off 30,000 after Christmas - so I think the beginning of the end of the stalemate is going to be mid to late 2009.

Of course, I may be wrong. It's quite likely that the financial wizards who brought us CDOs, debt tranches, NINJA loans etc will work out some other fiddle, in tandem with the government, to keep the housing market dead enough to maintain 2007 nominal values...

Different planet mate, why will people who don't sell their houses now be any worse off,when the price of the house they intend to move to have fallen also.

WTF?_2

StevieJ wrote: »

I for one would not dream of selling in this market, no rush to sell whatsovever.

Why would you sell anyway unless you needed to move or wanted to trade up; Has the process of selling your house (with all the disruption and hassle that implies) become sort of hobby in the last decade or something?

If you need to move, chances are houses will have fallen in price where you are moving to, too.

If you want to trade up and climb the ladder, it's less of a cash gap to the next step of the ladder as prices fall.

So for people who actually need or desire to move houses, most will find that a falling market makes no difference to, or even benefits, them. For FTBs who have faced paying crazy prices and borrowing eye watering amounts of cash, it's a positive boon.

It's really only people downsizing, moving out of the market for some reason (e.g. emigrating) or in negative equity who get hit.

Really2

Conrad wrote: »

Many lenders now want a '30 day valuation', that is to say, the valuation to be pitched at the level the property would sell at within 30 days of hitting the market.

Bull.

i have just compleated with first direct. (HSBC Strict lender)

Purchased a newbuild (big discount you all know)
Valuer rang me (I put down Estimated Value £250k he thought it was a mis key so £350k) and valued the house 6 weeks before the complation date at my valuation.

First direct never wanted a new valuation.

Are you not lending at the moment or somthing.

ad9898_3

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

I think prices will fall until they reach 100 to 125 x the rentable value. At this point, investors with cash (earning reciord low interest rates) will snap up anything and everything available.

I think this is total myth. How many cash rich investors do you actually think are out there ?, one thing is BTL increased 35 fold in the last 10 years, most of that increase would have come from 2000 onwards.

With every month that goes by, prices are reversing back towards this date, slowly but surely that 35 fold increase will probably turn into a 25-30 fold decrease by the time we hit bottom.

BTL is going in reverse as fast as prices are falling, sure there will be a few out there that will cash in but there will be only a tiny fraction of the investors that have been in the market up until recently, no where near enough to have an impact on prices.

Austin_Allegro

StevieJ wrote: »

Different planet mate, why will people who don't sell their houses now be any worse off,when the price of the house they intend to move to have fallen also.

Well that's sort of my point - the trouble is most people don't realise this, or don't want to be the first to drop their price in case nobody else does, which is why they are holding out for fantasy prices which aren't going to happen.

StevieJ

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Why would you sell anyway unless you needed to move or wanted to trade up; Has the process of selling your house (with all the disruption and hassle that implies) become sort of hobby in the last decade or something?

If you need to move, chances are houses will have fallen in price where you are moving to, too.

If you want to trade up and climb the ladder, it's less of a cash gap to the next step of the ladder as prices fall.

So for people who actually need or desire to move houses, most will find that a falling market makes no difference to, or even benefits, them. For FTBs who have faced paying crazy prices and borrowing eye watering amounts of cash, it's a positive boon.

It's really only people downsizing, moving out of the market for some reason (e.g. emigrating) or in negative equity who get hit.

!!!!!!, I am getting a lttle uncomfortable now, I agreed with you there Again!