House price falls may well accelerate in 2009

setmefree2

StevieJ wrote: »

Your opinion, my opinion is that interest rates will be a lot higher not that long from now, house prices will have fallen a general 20% ( much larger falls will be/are available for people who go out and find them).

That's brave;) I don't agree or disagree but it's good to get a range of views.:D

StevieJ

setmefree2 wrote: »

That's brave;) I don't agree or disagree but it's good to get a range of views.:D

Throw that much stimulation at the market and you get (IMO) inflation, that means higher interest rates and most probably higher house prices.

macaque_2

There is no shortage of money to lend. If for example you go to your local bank and ask for a 30% mortgage, they will snatch your hand off.

At the heart of the credit crunch is a communication gap between borrowers and lenders. Lenders are trying to tell home owners that a more realistic price for property is somewhere between 25 and 40% of 2007 prices. Home sellers can complain all they like but this is a battle that the lenders will ultimately win. Don't forget the golden rule (he who has the gold makes the rules).

WTF?_2

StevieJ wrote: »

Throw that much stimulation at the market and you get (IMO) inflation, that means higher interest rates and most probably higher house prices.

Yes, the question is when.

I don't expect the house market to turn as quickly as say, the commodities markets.

I also don't expect interest rates will go up quickly enough - there will be tremendous political pressure not to kill off the 'recovery' when it happens, so there should be a decent sized window of opportunity.

It's always a possibility that deflation will win out, but with unlimited capacity to print fiat currency not backed by anything (no gold standard these days) and the unprecedented ability to distribute it now that financial systems are electronic based, I think that strong, maybe hyper, inflation at some stage is a cert.

Talltree_2

I would like to thank everybody for thier opinions ... there is a lot of sense being spoken.

One of the things that is happening is that Mr Brown and friends are actually showing world leading sense (heaven knows where it came from), they led the world in the banking bailout, they (tacitly) let the MPC understand that financial stability as well as controlling inflation was within it's brief and they have implemented tax cuts .. I know that 2.5% of not much .. is not much
but it's a principle.

However these are the correct steps ...... They will work at some point, probably soon.

Once banks start to give loans again in volume .. and I was talking to a Mortgage guy yesterday, It is possible to get a mortgage today despite widespread opinion to the contrary, provided you meet tight criterion and or you are prepared to pay a premuim if you dont.

The UK housing market has talked itself into a corner .. although I would agree things are in a mess

setmefree2

!!!!!!? We bought at the bottom of the market in the 80's and again in late 1993. (We have also bought in the boom in 2003 - a totally different experience - LOL). For us it wasn't just a question of finding the bottom of the market but also about finding the right house. So a house came up for sale on an Avenue on which few houses come to market (only every couple of years) and we went for it (there was no competition!).

Do you not think that sort of consideration is important too or is it just about price for you?

Kenny4315

I think some big fall 1st quarter 2009, as utility bills and Xmas credit card and overspedning hit the letterbox. Santa may be bringing alot of folk and extra repo gift.

p1an0player

macaque wrote: »

Lenders are trying to tell home owners that a more realistic price for property is somewhere between 25 and 40% of 2007 prices.

gosh! ......

Talltree_2

I think there are 2 types of buyer ...

The first buys a house with purely financial head on they will most likely rent it, or live in it for a while and move on trying to make a killing along the way.

The second buys a home .. as a home to live in,

BUT

both need money (lots of it), it will be the biggest purchase expendature you will ever make and without money and the correct deal you will go nowhere,

There is not much room for sentiment in the housing market although of course in a flourishing market all types of houses in many places (supply)
should generate purchases (demand).

As the previous writer mentioned I think there is a danger of things going badly the other way with hyper inflation later on.

If you can afford it and want a home ... buy when you can.

dopester

Talltree wrote: »

If you can afford it and want a home ... buy when you can.

Hey that is a great idea. Just because we can afford it.. we should buy it. Brilliant logic.

If we'd thought that way in peak 2007 and bought a house in our area, then we would have spent, or got in to extra debt for £30,000 to £100,000... as that is what many houses we've been monitoring have since fallen in asking price from peak.

You go purchase at these levels if such money to spend or debt to service is so easy for you, and such a big laugh. I'd rather have less to pay from our savings, and less debt to service.

Why I'm going to buy a house now when I think asking prices for the houses I'm interested in will drop a further £30,000 to £100,000 in the next couple of years?

Yes we want a home, but not at any price, and not when we think they will be considerably cheaper in not too distant future.